Rodgers Becomes Co-Favorite to Win Fourth NFL MVP
GREEN BAY, Wis. – Aaron Rodgers woke up on Monday morning with an NFC North championship T-shirt and hat, a one-game lead in the race for homefield advantage in the NFC and a spot atop the MVP leaderboard.
With three games to go in the regular season, Rodgers and Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady are the co-favorites at +160 at FanDuel. Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes is a distant third at +850. They are followed by Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford at +1000, Colts running back Jonathan Taylor at +1200 and Bills quarterback Josh Allen at +1500.
Sunday’s outcomes resulted in a huge swing. Rodgers threw three touchdowns vs. zero interceptions, his latest masterpiece producing a 31-30 victory at the Baltimore Ravens. Meanwhile, Brady threw zero touchdowns and one interception in a stunning 9-0 loss at home against the New Orleans Saints, who had lost five straight.
Heading into this week, Brady was the overwhelming favorite at -150 while Rodgers was second at +500.
There is history to be made if Rodgers or Brady grab the trophy.
Peyton Manning won a record five MVP awards. Rodgers, Brady and Hall of Famers Brett Favre, Jim Brown and Johnny Unitas won three each. So, a win by Rodgers or Brady would produce the only four-time winner of the award.
The darkhorse might be Taylor, who is running away with the rushing title and has Indianapolis in the mix for a playoff berth. If Rodgers outplays Brady but voters are upset over Rodgers’ COVID stance, Taylor might be the beneficiary. A running back hasn’t won since 2012, when the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson returned from a torn ACL to rush for 2,097 yards.
Rodgers leads the NFL with a 110.4 passer rating (2.0 points better than Stafford) while playing behind a makeshift offensive line. He’s thrown 28 touchdowns vs. two interceptions since the opener in leading one of the most-injured teams in the league to an NFL-best 11-3 record.
Brady is eighth in passer rating but first in completions, yards (4,348; 450 more than Stafford) and touchdowns (36; three more than Stafford). He’s got six games with four-plus touchdown passes.
Mahomes is 12th in passer rating, almost 15 points behind Rodgers. While he’s third in passing yards, he’s 22nd in completion percentage and is only one off the dubious league-high for interceptions. The Chiefs are surging but mostly because of their defense.
Taylor leads the NFL with 1,518 rushing yards (424 yards more than Cincinnati’s Joe Mixon) and 17 rushing touchdowns (three more than Arizona’s James Conner). The Colts have won five of their last six, with Taylor topping 100 yards in each of those wins – including three games with more than 170 yards.
This is by far Rodgers’ best positioning. At the start of the regular season, he was +1000 to win. Those odds drifted to as long as +1200 on Oct. 27, one day before he upset the Arizona Cardinals without his top three receivers. He moved to +850 after that game, then shifted to +1000 after his positive COVID test.
In the Coach of the Year race at FanDuel, New England’s Bill Belichick is the favorite at +135. Green Bay’s Matt LaFleur is on his heels at +300. Belichick presumably will get bonus points for winning games with rookie quarterback Mac Jones, though LaFleur should be in consideration because of what he’s done despite several key injuries.
