Rodgers Remains King of NFC North Mountain

It’s a new year with new challenges as the Green Bay Packers will kick off the 2022 season at the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Aaron Rodgers is used to being the hunted.

Since winning the Super Bowl in 2010, Rodgers has led the Green Bay Packers to eight NFC North championships over the last 11 seasons. The Packers are the pick to win the division again in 2022, even though hope is abundant with their North rivals.

“Just like all the other teams in the NFC North,” Rodgers said on Wednesday, “it seems like every single year, I think their fanbase and their teams feel like, ‘This is our year to win the North.’ Hasn’t really been the case during my time, for the most part.”

Here are the NFC North standings during Matt LaFleur’s three-year run as coach:

Packers: 39-10 (three playoff appearances, three winning records).

Vikings: 25-24 (one playoff appearance, one winning record).

Bears: 22-27 (zero playoff appearances, zero winning records).

Lions: 11-36-2 (zero playoff appearances, zero winning records).

To summarize: The Packers have won three division titles, the other three teams have combined for one winning season.

Rodgers’ performance against his NFC North rivals borders on the absurd. In 12 division games the last two seasons, Rodgers has completed 73.5 percent of his passes with 38 touchdowns and zero interceptions. That’s a passer rating of 132.7.

LaFleur is 15-3 in division games. That .833 winning percentage is the best in the history of the NFC North/NFC Central. Bears legend Mike Ditka is a distant second with a .699 winning percentage (58-25); former Packers coach Mike McCarthy is fourth (.684; 51-23-2).

Hope springs eternal, though. The Bears (Matt Eberflus) and Vikings (Kevin O’Connell) hired new coaches, and the Lions’ second-year coach, Dan Campbell, seems to have that franchise pointed in the right direction.

After facing the Mike Zimmer-led Vikings the past eight seasons, Rodgers will face a new challenge this season against new coordinator Ed Donatell’s defense. The Vikings have some studs on that side of the ball, including Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter rushing off the edge, the linebacker tandem of Eric Kendricks and Jordan Hicks, and safety Harrison Smith.

“A lot of respect for Coach Zimmer, a lot of battles over the years,” Rodgers said. “Difficult alignments and pressure packages. This is a little bit more like our defense and the defenses kind of taking over the NFL.”

The Vikings have pinned two of the division losses on LaFleur. Rodgers, though, has been sensational with 15 touchdowns and one interception in those six games. In 27 career starts against the Vikings, he’s fashioned a 16-10-1 record behind his 57 touchdowns, seven interceptions and 110.2 passer rating.

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Leader of the Pack: Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers fires a pass at training camp. (USA Today Sports Images)

Rodgers has thrown an absurd 111 touchdowns vs. only 13 interceptions during his three seasons with coach Matt LaFleur. During that span, he is No. 1 in touchdown passes (four more than Tom Brady) and No. 1 in interceptions (11 fewer than Patrick Mahomes among the 25 quarterbacks with at least 1,000 attempts).

Of course, Davante Adams was on the receiving end of a lot of those touchdowns. Rodgers goes into this season with perhaps the most question-filled receiver corps in the NFL. But great quarterbacks are the rising tide that lifts all boats. That’s why they get paid the big bucks. In seven games without Adams during the LaFleur era, Rodgers won all seven starts. He threw 19 touchdowns vs. one interception to lead an offense that averaged 31.6 points per game – almost five points better than the average with Adams.

“That man is one of the greatest competitors I’ve ever been around,” receiver Randall Cobb said. “It doesn’t matter if you’re playing football, if you’re playing cards, he wants to win. It doesn’t matter what it is. He brings that fire every day. When you go from the preseason to the regular season, the ante ups, you’ve got to put down on the table and really have a laser focus that’s a little different. When we get into certain situations, he expects us to know exactly what we talked about the first week of training camp on any given play. It’s just making sure that we understand what’s before us and where we’re trying to go.”

Working in Tandem: Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon

Expect to see Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon in tandem. (USA Today Sports Images)

Last season, running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon combined for 1,602 rushing yards and nine touchdowns and 86 receptions for 704 yards and eight more touchdowns. That’s 2,306 total yards and 17 total touchdowns. Those numbers, as impressive as they are, could be dwarfed this season.

Jones and Dillon will be front and center in the new offensive plan of attack. Last season, they were on the field together for 24 offensive snaps, according to the league’s data. They might approach that number in Week 1 alone. Rodgers figured both players could catch 50 passes this season. That would be child’s play for Jones, who averaged 49.3 catches the past three seasons. Dillon, meanwhile, caught 34-of-37 targets during a breakout second season.

“They can both, obviously, run the ball really well. They can both catch it out of the backfield well,” Rodgers said. “Different types of backs. I was talking to Matt (LaFleur) this morning about it, they’re both I feel dangerous in the open field. Jonesy’s such a slasher and, when he gets the ball, he’s tough to take down. He’s got a great balance, low center of gravity. And 28 learned how to run behind his pads, and he can punish, especially in the wintertime, but he can also make you miss. He’s tough to bring down. He’s got tremendous quad size and strength. ”

Winning With Multiple Personnel Packages

TE Robert Tonyan scores vs. Washington (USA Today Sports Images)

Generally speaking, the NFL’s base offense is “11” personnel. That’s one running back, one tight end and three receivers. That’s how Green Bay lined up on almost half of its first-and-10 plays last season.

The Packers aren’t better without Davante Adams – their 7-0 record without him the past three seasons notwithstanding. But it will force coach Matt LaFleur to be more multiple on offense. He’s got the personnel to pull it off to best attack opposing defenses.

That Packers can still line up with three receivers, especially if rookies Christian Watson and/or Romeo Doubs emerge. With a healthy Robert Tonyan, the Packers can line up with two tight ends – whether it’s the sure-handed Tonyan and tough-guy blocking of Marcedes Lewis or Tonyan and versatile tight end/fullback Josiah Deguara. They can also line up in the aforementioned Jones-Dillon packages.

“I’m sure we’re going to play our best 11, and it’s hard to think those guys aren’t in the best 11 for us,” Rodgers said of Jones and Dillon. “We’ve got to find ways to get the ball to them in space.”

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Receivers: Who Will Get Open?

Allen Lazard (USA Today Sports Images)

Throughout his career, whenever Rodgers would drop back into the pocket for a key third down, there would be a comfort that his first or second read would get open. That’s what happens when you go from Greg Jennings to Jordy Nelson to Davante Adams as your No. 1 receiver.

Rodgers might not have that luxury this season. Sure, Rodgers is a great quarterback and LaFleur has a proven scheme. But there will come a time when Rodgers will face a high-quality secondary led by an excellent defensive coordinator. When that happens, will the veteran receiver trio of Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins and Randall Cobb be up to the task? Or will the dynamic rookie duo of Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs be ready to help?

“I think today there’s evidence of immaturity at times,” Rodgers said of the rookies after Wednesday’s practice, which LaFleur turned into as much of a real game as possible. “When you’re in these live situations where we’re moving the football and there’s rapid fires and the play clock is on and there’s live reactions and adjustments in real time, we’re going to have to be patient with 87 and 9.”

Rodgers went on to rave about the recent stretch of practices by Watkins and Cobb. But Watkins hasn’t reached 60 catches since 2015 and Cobb since 2017. Lazard, who Rodgers believes will emerge as a No. 1 receiver, hasn’t had be much more than a role player in his first four seasons. On top of that, all three have injury histories – Lazard hasn’t practiced in a week – and none of the three have game-breaking speed.

Rodgers would rather not have to rely on rookies. But, in the long run, will there be any choice?

Offensive Tackles: Knee’d To Be Healthy

David Bakhtirai (USA Today Sports Images)

There’s real hope David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins will be in the lineup on Sunday at Minnesota. In the grand scheme of things, Week 1 would be great but what matters is they’re in the lineup together in December and January.

The Packers might have gone to the Super Bowl had Bakhtiari not suffered a torn ACL at practice late in the 2020 season. Who knows how the 2021 season would have ended had Jenkins not suffered a torn ACL in November and Bakhtiari had successfully recovered from his injury.

When healthy, they are two of the best offensive linemen in the NFL. When they’re not healthy? The Packers will face at least one premier edge rusher in each of the first four games: Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter of the Vikings, Robert Quinn of the Bears, Shaq Barrett of the Buccaneers and Matthew Judon of the Patriots. Suspect offensive tackles plus suspect receivers is not exactly the equation for a winning passing attack.

“I’m going to be watching them like a hawk,” Rodgers said recently of Bakhtiari and Jenkins. “It’s good having them in the huddle in the pre-practice jog-through that we do. I stepped in the huddle the other day and it was the Big Giraffe at left and Elgton over at right and Big Dog [Marcedes Lewis] was in there and Sammy and Cobby and Allen and Jonesy [Aaron Jones] and I was like, ‘Hmm, this feels like a pretty good offense right here.’ So, it’d be nice to have those guys back.”

More Offensive Line: Men In the Middle

Jake Hanson (USA Today Sports Images)

Green Bay’s offensive line issues aren’t limited to the tackles’ ACLs. Left guard Jon Runyan, a sixth-round pick in 2020, has emerged as a reliable starter. Center Josh Myers, whom the Packers selected in the second round in 2021 instead of all-rookie Creed Humphrey, missed most of his rookie season with a knee injury and remains an unknown. At right guard, it will be either Jake Hanson, a sixth-round pick in 2020 who’s barely played, or Royce Newman, a fourth-round pick in 2021 who started 16 times as a rookie but was put on the bench for the playoffs.

The Packers will be counting on the running back duo of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to help carry the offensive load. That’s great. But will they find any running room? The Packers finished just 20th in yards per carry last season. They averaged just 2.9 in a loss to the Saints in Week 1 and only 3.4 in the loss to the 49ers in the playoffs. Other than here and there, such as Tyler Goodson’s touchdown run vs. the Chiefs, the No. 1 line didn’t exactly create a lot of running room in the preseason, when they mostly faced opponents’ backups.

“I like our group,” general manager Brian Gutekunst said last week. “Obviously, we’ve got some very established players in that room and, certainly, the health of the two tackles coming back is a big thing. But I think we have enough depth there, and I really like the youth and what their upside is down the road. But it will be nice to get those two tackles back, and it’s been good seeing them out on the field.”