Rodgers Trade Means New NFL Draft Odds for Packers

Which player is projected to go to the Green Bay Packers in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft?

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
Apr 25, 2023 3:21 PM EDT

In this story:

GREEN BAY, Wis. – As part of Monday’s agreement to trade Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets, the Green Bay Packers moved up from No. 15 to No. 13 in the first round.

Those two spots have made a big difference in the NFL Draft odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

As of a few days ago, defensive line (which includes edge rusher) was the betting favorite to be the position for Green Bay’s first pick at +200. That was followed by receiver, tight end and offensive line at +300.

Now, defensive line and receiver are the co-favorites at +200. Tight end is +340 and offensive line is +450.

The favorite to be the team that drafts Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the consensus No. 1 receiver in the draft, is Green Bay. With the 13th pick, the Packers are +250. With the 12th pick, the Houston Texans are +400. With the 14th pick, the New England Patriots are +850.

The over/under on Smith-Njigba’s draft position is 12.5. That’s right between Houston and Green Bay.

The other spotlight position for Green Bay is tight end. Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer is the favorite to be the first off the board at -160. Utah’s Dalton Kincaid, who had been the favorite, is +125.

The Dallas Cowboys are the betting favorite to grab Mayer at +370. Green Bay is next at +500. There are no individual odds for Kincaid.

At DraftKings, the over/under draft positioning for players mentioned as potential Packers picks includes Ohio State offensive tackle Paris Johnson at 9.5, Georgia edge Nolan Smith at 10.5, Smith-Njigba at 12.5, Georgia offensive tackle Broderick Jones at 14.5, Clemson edge Myles Murphy at 18.5 and Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid at 24.5.

With the Rodgers trade (almost) official, the Jordan Love era is (almost) here.

At Bet Online, the over/unders for Rodgers are 3,800.5 passing yards, 29.5 touchdowns and 8.5 interceptions. Love’s over/unders are 3,400.5 passing yards, 22.5 touchdowns and 13.5 interceptions.

In Super Bowl championship odds, the Packers are +4000 at SI Sportsbook, +4000 at FanDuel, +5000 at DraftKings, +5000 at BetMGM and +5000 at Bet Online.

“The odds for the Jets and the Packers are unchanged after the trade became official yesterday,” Adam Burns, BetOnline.ag sportsbook manager, said in an e-mail. “Our book has long assumed that Aaron Rodgers would end up in New York with the Jets.

“There was initial movement when the rumors about Rodgers to the Jets came out. The Jets’ Super Bowl odds went from 25/1 to their current 12/1 while the Packers’ Super Bowl odds went from 33/1 to their current 50/1. Win totals and playoff odds for both teams were both opened after it was assumed Rodgers was going to the Jets and the odds reflect that.”

The Jets’ win total is 9.5 and playoffs odds are -230. The Packers’ win total is 7.5 and playoff odds are +190. The implied probability is 69.7 percent that Green Bay will not reach the postseason.