The Early Read: Packers vs. Bears Matchups
GREEN BAY, Wis. – Here are three of the defining matchups, one in each phase, as we begin our lookahead to Sunday’s game between the Green Bay Packers (9-4) and Chicago Bears (7-6).
Packers offense vs. Bears defense
Unless the Aaron Rodgers-led passing game can snap out of its funk with the snap of a finger, the Packers simply have to run the football. From that perspective, Week 1 at Chicago was a disaster. The Packers averaged a season-low 2.1 yards per carry; that, in turn, was the Bears’ best game of the season.
Chicago’s run defense has been fierce for most of the season. The Bears enter the week ranked third in the league with 3.74 yards allowed per carry and seventh with 96.3 yards allowed per game. However, the Bears are down one key cog. Second-year linebacker Roquan Smith suffered a season-ending pectoral injury last week at Dallas. Smith ranks first on the team with 100 tackles. A sideline-to-sideline player, Smith’s average tackle is made 4.2 yards downfield (compared to 4.6 for Blake Martinez, for perspective) and he’s missed six tackles (compared to 16 for Martinez), according to Sports Info Solutions.
However, the Bears could get back one of their top defenders. In mid-October, Pro Bowl defensive end Akiem Hicks went on injured reserve with a dislocated elbow. His plan all along has been to return for this game.
“That’s a pretty specific date,” Hicks said on Monday. “I knew when it was coming. I’ve prepared accordingly.”
Green Bay’s middle-of-the-pack running game is coming off a season-best 6.2 yards per carry against the Redskins. Coach Matt LaFleur has wisely limited Aaron Jones’ workload. He’s taken 58.6 percent of the snaps this season compared to 38.4 percent for Jamaal Williams. If he’s the hot hand on Sunday, there should be plenty of fuel in the tank.
Bears offense vs. Packers defense
It’s been a long time since Week 1, a fact acknowledged by LaFleur on Monday.
“That first game, I don’t know how much stock we'll put into that because it’s been a long, long time ago and I think our offense is much different than it was then, and I think theirs, as well,” LaFleur said.
In that first game, Chicago ran the ball only 15 times. In the first six games, it averaged 20.8 carries. In the previous seven games, it’s averaged 26.7. That goes hand in hand with the emergence of David Montgomery. The hard-charging rookie from Iowa State leads the team with 680 rushing yards. He’s averaged just 3.5 yards per carry, but it’s 4.5 in wins the past two weeks against Detroit and Dallas. Of 37 backs with at least 100 rushes, his broken-tackle rate of 19.3 percent ranks 13th in the league, according to Sports Info Solutions.
The Packers won Round 1 due in part to the Bears’ reluctance to run the football. In turn, the defense dominated quarterback Mitch Trubisky. Presumably, Chicago coach Matt Nagy will want to come out running in support of the surging Trubisky. Green Bay’s run defense has been bad for most of the season – it’s 27th with 4.66 yards allowed per carry – but played well against the Redskins other than the 95-yard touchdown drive.
“I think all of us are slowly seeing how everything fits, how the pieces fit and how the defensive scheme is run to make the ball go where it needs to go,” Martinez said. “I think we’re going to keep getting better.”
The kicking game
Green Bay’s special teams might have turned the corner the past couple weeks. Punter JK Scott appears to have broken out of his funk the past two games. Of his seven punts, he’s had four inside-the-20s while allowing only two returns. The kickoff coverage has become a strength, too. The Packers haven’t allowed a 20.0-yard average in their past five games. T
hat will be critical against the Bears, because they have a dynamic duo of returners with Cordarrelle Patterson and Tarik Cohen. Patterson is averaging 30.2 yards per kickoff return with a 102-yard touchdown, the seventh in seven NFL seasons. Cohen is averaging 9.1 yards on punt returns with a long of 71.
