The Mixed History of Bottom-of-First-Round QBs

The Green Bay Packers selected Jordan Love with the 26th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft. Here is the history of those bottom-of-the-first-round quarterbacks.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
Apr 2, 2023 2:09 PM EDT

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Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – When the Green Bay Packers picked Jordan Love in 2020, it was at a relatively rare spot in the NFL Draft to pick a quarterback.

From 2000 through 2020, only 14 quarterbacks were selected between No. 20 overall (six spots before Love was taken at No. 26) and No. 32 overall (six spots after Love was taken). With the Pittsburgh Steelers selecting Kenny Pickett last year, the total is up to 15.

Contrast that to the top of the draft, with 16 quarterbacks selected in the top five overall over the last decade and 30 since 2000.

In theory, those top-five quarterbacks should have turned into better players. They were drafted in those precious slots for a reason, right?

The history is more complicated.

According to Pro Football Reference, the 30 top-five quarterbacks have combined for just two All-Pro seasons: Carolina’s Cam Newton and Atlanta’s Matt Ryan with one apiece. On the other hand, Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers (four), New Orleans’ Drew Brees (one) and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson (one) have combined for six All-Pros.

Of the 30 top-five quarterbacks, Ryan and Philip Rivers are likely Hall of Famers, Matthew Stafford and Eli Manning arguably are Hall of Famers, Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow is off to a great start and the arrow is pointed up for Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence.

Of the 15 quarterbacks drafted 20th through 32nd, Rodgers and Brees are sure first-ballot Hall of Famers who rank in the top five in NFL history in touchdown passes.

So, for truly great quarterbacks, the success rate is arguably better with those picked 20th through 32nd than at the top of the draft. That should give the Packers some optimism that Love could keep Green Bay’s incredible run of winning quarterbacks going strong for another decade.

On the other hand – and this obviously is not surprising – those top-five quarterbacks as a whole have been much more successful. Eighteen of the 30 – 60 percent – have been selected to at least one Pro Bowl. That includes five picked for at least four Pro Bowls and four more to three Pro Bowls.

The quarterbacks picked at the bottom of the first round include the great Rodgers and Brees and the former MVP Jackson among four Pro Bowlers. That’s it. Between Rodgers in 2005 and Jackson in 2018, six quarterbacks were selected in that group: Paxton Lynch in 2016, Teddy Bridgewater in 2014, Johnny Manziel in 2014, Brandon Weeden in 2012, Tim Tebow in 2010 and Brady Quinn in 2007.

Bridgewater, the other Pro Bowler from the group, was the only quarterback even in the league in 2022.

Of the 30 top-five quarterbacks, 13 have started at least 80 games. Of the 15 quarterbacks from the Love bracket, only two started at least 80 games.

Love’s time is almost here. After three years waiting behind Rodgers, he is set to step into the spotlight. Can he be the next Rodgers? The next Favre? Or something close to it, at least? Or will he be the next Lynch or Jim Druckenmiller (1997, 49ers), the last two quarterbacks taken 26th?

“I just think it’s going to be a progression,” coach Matt LaFleur said at the NFL meetings on Tuesday. “Certainly, I think we’re fooling ourselves if we think he’s going to go out there and perform at a level to the likes of an Aaron Rodgers.

“This guy is a once-in-a-lifetime generational talent, and I don’t think it necessarily started that way when he first started. But he progressed into that. Like I said, it’s going to be a progression and, hopefully, we can surround him with enough people to help him perform at the best of his ability. And then we’ve got to do a great job as a coaching staff.”