The Time Is Right To Trade Aaron Rodgers
INDIANAPOLIS – Green Bay Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst and his colleagues are gathering here for this week’s Scouting Combine. Unlike past trips to Lucas Oil Stadium and the Indiana Convention Center, when the topic of Aaron Rodgers’ availability comes up during chats with quarterback-needy teams, Gutekunst needs to say, “I’m all ears,” rather than, “Thanks but no thanks.”
A lot has changed over the last two years. In 2020, Rodgers was the disgruntled MVP. In 2022, Rodgers is the realistic former MVP.
“I think there’s got to be mutual interest on both sides,” Rodgers said after the season-ending loss to the Detroit Lions.
“I was aware of the possibility of them going young if we had gotten to a point where we were out of it,” he continued. “I’m aware of that possibility, as well. Wouldn’t be the best reality but I know it’s a possibility.”
At some point, Gutekunst and Rodgers will talk. Maybe they already have. Those discussions, once again, will be centered on two obvious questions.
Does Rodgers want to play in 2023?
If so, does he want to play for the Packers or would he like to be traded to a team with what he deems a better chance to win the Super Bowl?
The past couple offseasons, with Rodgers coming off MVP campaigns and the Packers coming off 13-win seasons, the conversation really ended there. From an organizational perspective, it was Rodgers or bust for a team with championship aspirations. So, Gutekunst moved heaven and earth to appease Rodgers. That’s how you get three-year, $150 million contracts.
This year, the conversation between quarterback and general manager could be different.
Much different.
Rodgers is coming off a mediocre season by anyone’s standards and a bad season by his own standards. How much of that can be blamed on his injured thumb? On the trade of Davante Adams? And how realistic are the prospects of a Rodgers rebound with a healthy thumb and a year of snaps with talented Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs?
Looking ahead, that enormous contract means there isn’t a good time to turn the page at quarterback but this is the least-worst time. And Jordan Love is ready – at least that’s what Gutekunst and coach Matt LaFleur have said.
This time, rather than persuading Rodgers to stay with the Packers, Gutekunst needs to say what had been unthinkable: Thank you for everything you’ve done, we’re sorry if you feel we’ve let you down, but it’s time for the organization to move on. I hope we both get to the Super Bowl this year.
Rodgers is a great quarterback. Not just one of the best ever – though he certainly is – but he’s one of the best in the game today. Rodgers can’t move like he did a few years ago. His arm might not be as potent, either. But he’s still Aaron Freaking Rodgers, even with his 40th birthday on the end-of-next-season horizon.
Yes, I know, he’s fallen short too often in big games. But based on what we know today and how the team handled the stretch run to last season, if Gutekunst and LaFleur had to bet their careers on the upcoming season, they’d take Rodgers over Love.
But, as Rodgers himself said, “at some point the carousel comes to a stop and it’s time to get off.” Rodgers used those words in terms of his career. Gutekunst could use those words in terms of the franchise.
For the Packers, it’s time to get off the carousel. As one executive said, “You kind of just have to rip off the Band-Aid if the guy [Love] can play. You’ve got to move off Aaron if you really, really believe that. You trust your ability to evaluate and project, even if he doesn’t play great right away.”
Can Love play? Is he going to be great, bad or in between? In the totality of his three seasons, I’ve been less than impressed but he’s worked mostly with the backups during his training camps and reporters don’t get to see any of the competitive drills once the season starts.
What about the Philadelphia game? So much of the fans’ hopes are built on nine passing attempts from that game, when Rodgers left with injured ribs and Love was sharp and decisive. However, even Love said the Eagles played soft, so it’s dangerous to read too much into that game – just as it’s dangerous to read too much into his poor performances vs. the Chiefs and Lions in 2021.
“It’s like any quarterback in the National Football League when they haven’t done it, you go into that and there’s some unknowns,” Gutekunst said at the end of the season. “They’ve got to handle a lot of different things, see a lot of different things before they can get to a point where they can win games in this league.”
Regardless of the Great Quarterbacking Unknown the Packers would be entering, the time is right for a passing of the baton.
Coming off an 8-9 season and limited by the salary cap, the Packers are going to be challenged to take the steps necessary to get back in the Super Bowl hunt.
So, why not take a step back and give Love a season to start? If he’s the next winning Packers quarterback, great. If not, a supposedly strong quarterbacking class awaits in 2024.
Meanwhile, having escaped the constraints of Rodgers’ contract, the Packers can get off the salary cap merry-go-round that has made keeping the roster together, let alone adding to it, such an enormous challenge.
Just imagine: Love turns out to be the worthy successor, the Packers get a top draft pick in a trade and there’s money to spend in free agency in 2024, 2025 and beyond. If those stars align, the Packers could reload quickly and open another decade-plus window of being championship contenders.
That’s pie-in-the-sky thinking, to be sure, and trading Rodgers would be a gamble. A couple generations of Packers fans have no idea what it looks like to see bad quarterback play, to enter a season with no hope of winning. Bad football is bad for business. It’s bad for the careers of general manager and coaches, too.
On the other hand, enough fans have grown weary of everything – big-game performances during the season, drama after the season, ayahuasca instead of football during the offseason – that the organization wouldn’t face a giant backlash for trading the longtime face of the franchise.
Regardless of the risk and reward, the Packers need to figure it out sometime. That sometime should be now.
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Stay or Go, Part 7: Allen Lazard
100 Days of Mocks series: Safety, tight end, receiver in three-rounder
Is the Aaron Rodgers trade market disappearing?
Nobody to blame for salary-cap problems
