The Ultimate Packers Draft Preview: Receivers

Here’s a look at the Green Bay Packers’ receiver situation ahead of the NFL Draft, including some big-name receivers who might not be on the board based on draft history.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
Apr 22, 2020 12:21 PM EDT

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Here’s a look at the Green Bay Packers’ receiver situation ahead of the NFL Draft, including pertinent history and 12 potential draft picks.

State of the Packers

Week after week after week, the Packers’ offense spun its wheels. The reason is obvious: Their complete and utter failure in replacing Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. The Packers haven’t drafted a receiver inside the first 130 picks of a draft since grabbing Davante Adams in the second round in 2014. In fact, in the five drafts from 2015 through 2019, Green Bay used only one pick in the first four rounds on a receiver: J’Mon Moore, the 133rd pick of 2018, and he was a bust. With that, Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (fifth round), Geronimo Allison (undrafted), Allen Lazard (undrafted) and Jake Kumerow (undrafted) played the lion’s share of the snaps. Lazard was a real find but the Packers badly need another threat.

Based on History, Maybe You Can Forget …

In the 15 drafts conducted by Ted Thompson and Gutekunst, the Packers selected 15 receivers. Digging into that history:

The only one shorter than 5-foot-11 was Randall Cobb, at 5-foot-10 1/4. If 5-foot-10 is the cutoff, that would eliminate Penn State’s K.J. Hamler (5-8 5/8) and Miami’s Jeff Thomas (5-8 7/8). That’s a remarkably low number in such a deep receiver class.

J’Mon Moore was the slowest at 4.60, though the Packers had him in the high 4.4s at pro day. Using 4.60 as the cutoff, that could eliminate Tennessee’s Jauan Jennings (4.70), Wisconsin’s Quintez Cephus (4.62), Oregon State’s Isaiah Hodgins (4.61), Liberty’s Antonio Gandy-Golden (4.60) and Ohio State’s K.J. Hill (4.60).

Adams was tied for the smallest hands at 9 inches. Receivers with smaller hands include Cephus (8 3/4), Washington’s Aaron Fuller (8 7/8) and Thomas (8 3/8).

Bragg ran the slowest 20-yard shuttle at 4.40. The shuttle long has been a critically important number for the Packers. More than half of the receivers at the Scouting Combine decided to skip the shuttle to run it at their pro day. Alas, the pandemic eliminated most of the pro days so there is a lot of incomplete information. Nonetheless, Rhode Island’s Isaiah Coulter (4.62), Gandy-Golden (4.55), Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy (4.53), Michigan State’s Cody White (4.52), Arkansas State’s Omar Bayless (4.50), Texas A&M’s Kendrick Rogers (4.48), Mississippi State’s Stephen Guidry (4.46), TCU’s Jalen Reagor (4.46), Baylor’s Denzel Mims (4.43), Ohio State’s Austin Mack (4.42) all ran slower than 4.40. Only Gutekunst knows how those slow shuttles impact the standing of top prospects Jeudy, Reagor and Mims.

One more worth noting. Ten-yard splits – the first 10 yards of the 40 – have been available for Combine participants since 2008. The receiver average is 1.563, according to MockDraftable.com. Green Bay’s times for receivers at the Combine, in chronological order: Nelson, 1.50; Cobb, 1.56; Johnson, 1.53; Adams, 1.53; Abbrederis, 1.53; Janis, 1.47; Davis, 1.51; Moore, 1.64; Valdes-Scantling, 1.55; and St. Brown, 1.54. Throwing out Moore’s time because his pro-day workout was so radically different, the slowest was Cobb – and he still matched the Combine average. Only Gutekunst knows whether there’s some sort of magical cutoff.

However, these receivers ran their first 10 yards in slower than 1.60: Clemson’s Tee Higgins (1.66), Jennings (1.65), White (1.65), Reagor (1.63), Gandy-Golden (1.62), Oregon’s Juwan Johnson (1.62), Bayless (1.62), Colorado’s Laviska Shenault (1.61), USC’s Michael Pittman (1.61), Vanderbilit’s Kalija Lipscomb (1.61) and Fuller (1.61).

Potential Draft Fits

Perhaps the priority will be a slot receiver. Adams is terrific in the slot but the offense is at its best when Adams is moving around the formation to take advantage of matchups.

“We’ve talked about it a bunch,” Gutekunst said of conversations with coach Matt LaFleur. “In a perfect world you’d like to draw them up exactly with the skill-set of the position you want them to play. But guys have to be able to do everything and, if they're better at one thing than the other, that's fine. But in this game, injuries and things that happen, they’ve got to be able to play pretty much everywhere. That may take time from a learning perspective, but I think at the end of the day, we’d all rather have well-rounded football players that can do a lot of things than maybe somebody that’s just really good at one particular thing.”

So, focusing on the slot and keeping in mind the draft history:

First Round

Justin Jefferson, LSU (6-1 1/4, 202; 4.43 40): Jefferson went from zero catches as a freshman to 54 as a sophomore to 111 receptions for 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns as a junior. In his final three games, Jefferson was dominant. In the SEC Championship Game against Georgia, he caught seven passes for 115 yards and one touchdown. In the national semifinals, he had a day for the ages with 14 receptions for 227 yards and four touchdowns against Oklahoma. In the national championship, he caught nine balls for 106 yards against Clemson. Jefferson did most of his work from the slot, where he lined up 81 percent of the time and caught 109 passes for 1,518 yards. The Packers need a slot and Gutekunst has shown a propensity for picking bigger receivers. At 6-foot-1, Jefferson checks both boxes.

Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State (5-11 5/8, 205; 4.50 40): Aiyuk replaced N’Keal Harry as ASU’s top receiver and delivered 65 receptions for 1,192 yards and eight touchdowns during an All-American senior season. He’s a sure-handed YAC machine – his 10.9 yards after the catch per catch trailed only Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb. While he’s not tall, he’s got 33 1/2 inch arms and an 80-inch wingspan. The receivers who matched or surpassed Aiyuk’s wingspan were all at least 6-foot-3 5/8. He also had a 40-inch vertical, further increasing his catch radius. He wasn’t “just a slot guy” at Arizona State and he won’t be one in the NFL, either.

Second and Third Rounds

Laviska Shenault, Colorado (6-0 5/8, 227; 4.58 40): In three seasons at Colorado, he caught 149 passes for 1,943 yards and 10 touchdowns and added 280 rushing yards and seven more scores. In 2018, he led the nation in receptions per game (9.6), finished the year with 86 catches for 1,011 yards and six touchdowns, and was the only player in the nation with at least five touchdowns receiving and rushing. In 2019, his production slipped to 56 receptions for 764 yards and four touchdowns. However, while the raw numbers dipped, his excellence still showed up. According to Sports Info Solutions, he averaged 7.6 yards after the catch. According to Pro Football Focus, he forced 44 missed tackles the past two seasons – tops in the draft class. Much like San Francisco’s Deebo Samuel, his powerful running would create a lot of cheap and easy yards on receiver screens from the slot.

Devin Duvernay, Texas (5-10 1/2, 200; 4.39 40): As a senior, Duvernay lined up in the slot 96 percent of the time. It was total domination. Duvernay had a stellar final season with 106 receptions for 1,386 yards and nine touchdowns. He was third in the nation in receptions and second in receptions per game (8.1). In an early-season game against LSU, he caught 12 passes for 154 yards and two touchdowns. He led the nation by reeling in 95 percent of catchable passes, according to Sports Info Solutions. He forced 23 missed tackles and finished fifth among our top 32 receivers by forcing a missed tackle every 4.52 catches, according to Pro Football Focus. With his speed, he’d bring an element Cobb never provided – game-breaking potential. Scouts consider him only a slot, but that’s what the Packers need.

Lynn Bowden, Kentucky (5-10 5/8, 204; DNP 40): Before becoming a star receiver, Cobb played quarterback as a true freshman at Kentucky in 2008. Due to injuries, Bowden shifted to quarterback in 2019. Bowden was awful as a passer but electric as a runner, with his 7.9 yards per carry leading the nation. In 2018, he caught 67 passes and averaged 7.7 yards after the catch. Left one-on-one, the shifty Bowden won again and again. The position change was a setback to his development but he’d provide a bunch of easy yards on receiver screens from the slot.

Fourth and Fifth Rounds

K.J. Hill, Ohio State (5-11 7/8, 196; 4.60 40): Hill had three banner seasons to finish his career with the school record for career receptions. He caught 56 passes as a sophomore, career highs of 70 passes for 885 yards as a junior and 57 passes (for 636 yards) and a career-high 10 touchdowns as a senior. Of his 2019 totals, 53 receptions for 597 yards and nine touchdowns came from the slot.

James Proche, SMU (5-10 5/8, 201; DNP 40): Proche led the nation with 111 receptions as a senior. He turned those into 1,225 yards (11.0 average) and 15 touchdowns. Of that, 55 receptions for 569 yards and nine scores came from the slot. He’s not big and he’s not fast but he’s got incredibly good hands. In fact, one scout called his hands the best in the draft. Including 93 receptions and 12 touchdowns as a junior, his four-year haul was 301 receptions for 3,949 yards (13.1 average) and 39 touchdowns. Plus, he added 7.6 yards per punt return and 19.8 yards per kickoff return to run his all-purpose count to 4,996 yards.

Tyler Johnson, Minnesota (6-1 3/8, 206; DNP 40): Johnson piled up a four-year total of 213 receptions for 3,305 yards (15.5 average) and 33 touchdowns. Most of the damage came as a junior (78 catches, 1,169 yards, 12 touchdowns) and senior (86 catches, 1,318 yards, 13 touchdowns). He’s not the prototypical slot – he wins with physicality rather than quickness and athleticism – but that’s where he played for the Gophers, with 67 catches for 1,086 yards and seven scores from inside in 2019.

Joe Reed, Virginia (6-0 1/2, 224; 4.47 40): Reed caught 52 passes in his first three seasons but 77 passes for 679 yards (8.8 average) and seven touchdowns as a senior. Don’t let that meager average suggest he’s not explosive. He was a huge threat on kickoff returns with career marks of 28.7 yards per run back and five touchdowns. As a senior, he was a first-team All-American with a 33.2-yard average and a pair of scores. He is the only player in FBS history with 2,700-plus career kick return yards and a career kick return average of 28-plus yards. As a junior, he averaged 18.6 yards per catch with seven touchdowns on 25 catches. With the build of a running back and breakaway speed, he’s a natural for a bunch of schemed catches.

Sixth and Seventh Rounds

Quez Watkins, Southern Mississippi (6-0 1/8, 185; 4.35 40): Watkins is the exception to the slot list, though he did catch 28 passes for 392 yards inside in 2019. In three seasons, he caught 159 passes for 2,404 yards (15.1 average) and 17 touchdowns. The game-breaking speed is impossible to ignore.

Quartney Davis, Texas A&M (6-1 1/4, 201; 4.54 40): Davis redshirted after tearing an ACL in 2016 and didn’t catch a pass while dealing with shoulder problems in 2017. He returned to catch 45 passes as a sophomore and 54 as a junior. In 2019, he caught 46 passes for 537 yards and three scores from the slot. Unlike the top slot guys, he’s not much of a YAC guy.

Kendall Hinton, Wake Forest (5-10 3/8, 193; DNP 40): At his size, Hinton is the cliché of a slot receiver. He was productive with 55 catches for 710 yards and four touchdowns from the slot in 2019, according to Pro Football Focus. That was the bulk of his 73 catches for 1,001 yards on the season. He spent his first three seasons at quarterback. He dropped too many passes but has big hands (9 7/8 inches) and a quarterback’s feel for the game.