These Edge Defenders Might Not Be on Packers’ Draft Board
GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers need an outside linebacker. With the success of Rashan Gary, Preston Smith and, before that, Za’Darius Smith, they seem to have a type.
Big and physical.
Since Green Bay changed to a 3-4 defensive alignment in 2009, it has selected 12 outside linebackers: Clay Matthews and Brad Jones in 2009, Ricky Elmore in 2011, Nick Perry in 2012, Nate Palmer in 2013, Carl Bradford in 2014, Kyler Fackrell in 2016, Vince Biegel in 2017, Kendall Donnerson in 2018, Gary in 2019, Jonathan Garvin in 2020 and Kingsley Enagbare in 2022.
Here’s a look at their testing numbers and what it might mean for the 2023 NFL Draft, which kicks off on Thursday.
Height and Weight
The current outside linebacker room is filled with big guys. The starting duo: Gary is 6-foot-5 and 277 pounds and Preston Smith is 6-foot-5 and 265 pounds. The reserves: Enagbare is 6-foot-4 and 258 pounds, Justin Hollins is 6-foot-5 and 248 pounds and Garvin is 6-foot-4 and 257 pounds. Former star Za’Darius Smith fit the mold, too, at 6-foot-4 and 272 pounds.
That would suggest Green Bay’s next outside linebacker will be big, too, though Bradford was 6-foot 3/4, Biegel weighed 246 pounds and Fackrell weighed 245.
Who might be off the board?
The Packers have not used their first-round picks on players who are significantly undersized at any position. In that light, it would be fascinating to know if Georgia’s Nolan Smith is on the board. Smith is a superb player and a revered leader at the best program in the game. He’s only 6-foot-2 1/4 and 238 pounds, though.
Iowa State’s Will McDonald IV – a fringe first-rounder – is another fascinating case. He’s only 239 pounds, which seemingly would take him out of contention, but the Packers used one of their 30 predraft visits on the Wisconsin native. While he’s light, he’s 6-foot-3 5/8 – enough frame to bulk up some – and has 34 7/8-inch arms. When defensive coordinator Joe Barr was with the Rams, they had success with 240-pound Leonard Floyd on the edge.
On Day 2, LSU’s B.J. Ojulari (6-2 3/8, 248) might not be on the board, and Auburn’s Derick Hall (6-2 3/4, 254) could be on the fringe.
Looking into early Day 3, Appalachian State’s productive Nick Hampton (6-2 1/4, 236) and Kansas’ Lonnie Phelps (6-2 3/8, 244) might not be considerations, either.
40-Yard Dash
In the 40-yard dash, the historic Scouting Combine average is 4.81 seconds. Elmore (4.95), Garvin (4.82) and Enagbare (4.87) were slower. However, eight of the other nine players beat that by at least-one tenth of a second. For what it’s worth, former Packers star Za’Darius Smith ran his 40 in 4.73 seconds and current Packers starter Preston Smith ran his in 4.74.
Who might be off the board?
Enagbare ran so poorly at the Combine – and even worse at pro day – but proved to be a productive fifth-round pick, so perhaps the 40 won’t be relevant at all.
Especially with the first three or four rounds of prospects, the straight-line speed at the Combine was spectacular. Moving deeper into Day 3, Michigan’s Mike Morris (4.95), Army’s Andre Carter (4.91) and Oklahoma State’s Tyler Lacy (5.11) might not be considered. Carter’s 20-yard shuttle, on the other hand, was exceptional.
20-Yard Shuttle
In the 20-yard shuttle, the historic average is 4.42 seconds. Until Enagbare’s 4.54 last year, only one draft pick was slower than that time. That was Perry, who clocked a 4.66; at 271 pounds, however, he ran his 40 in 4.64. Preston Smith was fast (4.28) and Za’Darius Smith (4.66) was slow.
Who might be off the board?
Ohio State’s Zach Harrison is the one player who stands out through the first two days of prospects. He did not run a 40 and his shuttle was a woeful 4.66, but he’s 274 pounds with 36-inch arms.
Moving into Day 3, San Jose State’s Viliami Fehoko was a second-team All-American with 44 TFLs the last three years but his shuttle was 4.73.
Relative Athletic Score
Relative Athletic Score is a 0-to-10 scale compilation of size/speed numbers that creates comparisons across a position group. Gary (9.95), Preston Smith (9.80), Donnerson (9.39), Perry (9.38) and Matthews (9.31) were studs. Garvin (8.98), Fackrell (8.63), Biegel (8.60), Palmer (8.55) and Fackrell (7.94) were no slouches, either.
On the other hand, Elmore’s RAS was 5.11. That was a lifetime ago, though, so was he just an outlier? Nope. Enagbare’s RAS was 6.25. Za’Darius Smith, for what it’s worth, scored just a 3.73.
Who might be off the board?
In an incredibly athletic field of edge rushers, only LSU’s Ojulari had a sub-5 RAS among the truly draft-worthy prospects, but that was on the heels of a hamstring injury. San Jose’s Fehoko and Ferris State’s Caleb Murphy – the Division II game-wrecker who had 25.5 sacks in 2022 – were just slightly above 5.0.
What Does It All Mean?
Based purely on testing numbers, the guess is Georgia’s Nolan Smith and LSU’s B.J. Ojulari will be off the board because the team seems to stick to its numerical guns in the first couple rounds. Moving into Day 3, Appalachian State’s Nick Hampton (size), Kansas’ Lonnie Phelps (size) and Michigan’s Mike Morris (speed) might not be options, either.
If the Packers are looking for players in the mold of Rashan Gary and Preston Smith, Iowa’s Lukas Van Ness and Clemson’s Myles Murphy might be front and center in the first-round conversation, and Georgia Tech’s Keion White and Kansas State’s Felix Anudike-Uzomah would seem to be the second-round favorites.
