Comparing Packers, Buccaneers Three Years After NFC Championship Game
GREEN BAY, Wis. – Three years ago the NFC Championship Game was contested at Lambeau Field between the Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The matchup was what the world had been waiting for. Aaron Rodgers vs Tom Brady.
The Bucs won 31-26 and went on to win the Super Bowl two weeks later against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Since that day, the teams have been mirror images of each other.
The following year, the two teams were the 1 and 2 seeds, respectively, in the NFC playoffs. Both teams lost in the divisional round.
The following year, both teams went 8-9. Tampa Bay made the playoffs as a byproduct of playing in the mediocre NFC South.
Now, both teams are in a transition phase as they moved on from Hall of Fame quarterbacks this past offseason.
With the trade of Aaron Rodgers to the Jets and the retirement of Brady, both teams are 6-7 entering Sunday’s game at Lambeau Field.
Both teams have had their ups and downs. The Bucs are at the top of their still-mediocre division with Baker Mayfield leading the way. The Packers, in their first season with Jordan Love as their quarterback, had a three-game winning streak snapped after a humbling loss to the New York Giants on Monday night.
While the two teams mirror each other in terms of record, they've taken different approaches to team building. That leads to the question of who is ahead of the curve.
Quarterback
For this season, specifically, the two quarterbacks are relatively even.
Love has more touchdown passes than Mayfield. Mayfield holds a small advantage in quarterback rating (89.7 to 89.0).
This season for the Packers, however, is about much more than just 2023.
Love looks like someone that the Packers can trust with their franchise moving forward. Mayfield, meanwhile, has bounced around the league and is on his fourth team in three years.
Even if Mayfield has performed admirably, the Bucs are likely to continue searching for a long-term answer at quarterback.
Advantage: Packers
Skill Positions
Unlike the Packers, who are going exclusively with young receivers and tight ends around their young quarterback, the Bucs kept some of the structure that was around Brady to help Mayfield.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin form one of the better receiver duos in the NFL. Evans has gone over 1,000 yards for a 10th consecutive season and Godwin is a top No. 2 option. Tight end Cade Otton is a solid player with more than 40 catches in each of his first two seasons.
Evans is slated to be a free agent, and his future in Tampa Bay is unclear.
The Packers haven't had a true alpha receiver emerge in the way that Evans has been throughout his career in Tampa Bay.
Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave have shown flashes this season. The question is whether they will actually grow together the way Brian Gutekunst envisioned.
The situation in the backfield is tenuous for both. Both teams are below average in the run game. AJ Dillon's contract is expiring and Aaron Jones, who took a pay cut to stay this year, faces an uncertain future, as well.
Rachaad White, a third-round pick in 2022, is Tampa's top running back. He’s averaged only 3.7 yards per carry in his career but has topped 1,100 scrimmage yards this season.
We'll give the nod to Tampa based on the already-established Godwin and a little more stability in the backfield.
Advantage: Bucs
Offensive Line
Buccaneers left tackle Tristan Wirfs and Packers right tackle Zach Tom are building blocks for their teams.
For Green Bay, left guard Elgton Jenkins is a piece the Packers have to feel good about long term and center Josh Myers has played better of late.
The Packers have big question marks at left tackle and right guard guard beyond 2023. Is David Bakhtiari coming back? If not, how are they going to replace him? Right guard Jon Runyan's contract is expiring. Sean Rhyan has taken a series or two from Runyan for most of the last six weeks but has been unable to displace him.
The Bucs have similar questions on their interior. Cody Mauch has struggled as a rookie at right guard, but Wirfs and Wisconsin native Luke Goedeke provide more stability at the tackle spots.
Green Bay has a track record of finding players in this position group. They're certainly deeper than most teams, and that includes Tampa Bay.
Advantage: Packers
Defensive Front
Green Bay’s Kenny Clark and Tampa Bay’s Vita Vea represent veteran building blocks on the defensive line.
Green Bay’s Rashan Gary, who is closing in on his first 10-sack season, signed a contract extension earlier in the year.
The Bucs have not found the next great pass rusher to replace Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaquil Barrett
The Packers have invested heavily on this position group with Clark, Gary, Devonte Wyatt, Lukas Van Ness and Preston Smith being first-round picks or getting significant free agent money.
Photo by Wm. Glasheen/USA Today Sports Images
Photo by Wm. Glasheen/USA Today Sports Images
The investment did not pay off on Monday against the Giants, but they are in a better spot than Tampa Bay
Advantage: Packers
Off-the-Ball Linebackers
Devin White and Lavonte David are likely in the nightmares of Packers coach Matt LaFleur. That tandem has proven to be dynamic and has slowed down LaFleur and the Packers' middle-of-the-field passing attack.
The Packers hoped Quay Walker and De’Vondre Campbell would form a similar tandem but they have not operated at their peak at the same time.
Walker has struggled with injuries and inconsistency while Campbell has not rediscovered the form that made him a first-team All-Pro in 2021.
David is aging, but still very good. White has played well while searching for a new contract.
Advantage: Bucs
Defensive Backs
This might be where the Bucs have changed the most since the 2020 NFC Championship game.
Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean combined for a sticky secondary to go with an explosive pass rush. Murphy-Bunting is gone. Davis and Dean have not played as well since that season.
The Bucs rank 28th in the NFL in EPA per dropback and 29th in yards per passing attempt.
Safety/slot Antoine Winfield Jr. is a star has been a bright spot in an otherwise porous secondary.
Green Bay’s Jaire Alexander signed a contract extension in May 2022. When he plays, he’s one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL.
Eric Stokes' career took a dramatic turn when he suffered a gruesome injury from a year ago and has yet to play a snap on defense this season.
Carrington Valentine looks like a diamond in the rough as a seventh-round pick. He’s the deciding factor as both teams have their secondaries in flux.
Advantage: Packers
Coaching
The teams are likely set up well for the short term. LaFleur is not going anywhere after this season. It's hard to envision Todd Bowles getting the axe if the Bucs win the division.
The coordinator situations are tenuous. Joe Barry is everyone's favorite defensive coordinator, though he could be on the way out at the end of the season due to lack of progress over the last three years.
Rich Bisaccia was promoted after last year. He could be in line for head coaching interviews with the Las Vegas Raiders job being open again.
If he's not, could LaFleur be asking questions why his special teams are ranked near the bottom of the NFL despite the investment both in coaching and roster space?
For the Bucs, Dave Canales was hired as the offensive coordinator for 2023 and has done a nice job with Mayfield and the offense. He'll be tabbed with working through the offense's roster attrition likely to come this offseason.
Advantage: Push
