To Win Now, Packers Kick Financial Can to Next Year, Beyond
GREEN BAY, Wis. – Green Bay Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst and his cap guru, executive vice president/director of football operations Russ Ball, managed to successfully sail the team’s sinking salary-cap ship without throwing anyone overboard.
That the Packers went from $28.19 million over the salary cap to having $3.80 million of cap space, according to Spotrac, was both genius and dangerous by Gutekunst and Ball.
The genius comes from the fact that nobody of substance was released. Sure, the Packers released linebacker Christian Kirksey, but that had less to do with the cap than him losing his starting job to a couple of rookies.
To be sure, losing All-Pro center Corey Linsley was a major blow. But, Linsley will turn 30 before training camp and missed all of three games and most of two others due to injuries. Regardless of the team’s cap problems, perhaps it was best to let some other team – the Chargers, in this case – make him the highest-paid center in football.
Beyond that key loss, with the re-signing of Pro Bowl running back Aaron Jones, the Packers should have a team capable of returning to the NFC Championship Game and finally getting back to the Super Bowl.
The peril comes with the future.
What does “all in” mean? It’s pretty close to what Gutekunst did to get the band back together for 2021. The cap swing of about $32 million was accomplished in large part by restructuring four contracts: All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari, Pro Bowl outside linebacker Za’Darius Smith, right tackle Billy Turner and outside linebacker Preston Smith.
Bakhtiari had a $11.072 million roster bonus that was turned into signing bonus, which created about $8.3 million of cap space for 2021 at the expense of adding about $2.77 million to his cap charges in 2022, 2023 and 2024. In 2024, when Bakhtiari is 33 and playing in his final season under contract, his cap charge will be more than $30 million.
Za’Darius Smith turned most of his base salary and a $5 million roster bonus into a signing bonus, which created $7.38 million of cap savings for 2021. In 2022, which will be Smith’s final season under contract, his cap charge will be more than $28 million. The Packers figure to give him a contract extension to ease that pain, but Smith will turn 31 right about the time the 2023 season starts.
Preston Smith, who had a cap hit of $16 million, agreed to an enormous, incentive-laden contract revamp after a disappointing 2020 season. The deal created $7.25 million of cap savings for 2021 but pushed his 2022 cap number from $16.5 million to $19.75 million. If he underperforms again, the Packers could move on after the 2021 season and save $12.5 million but they’d absorb an unpalatable $7.25 million of dead cap.
Turner turned some of his base salary and a roster bonus into a signing bonus to create almost $3.5 million of cap savings for 2021. That inched his 2022 cap figure up only a bit because of the insertion of void years into the contract. That, however, means Turner will count on the salary cap in 2023, even when he’s not on the roster.
It was an unusually aggressive approach by Gutekunst and Ball but one fitting for a team with championship aspirations. With an MVP but aging quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, Gutekunst managed to not only get beneath the salary cap but create enough cap space to re-sign the game-changing Jones.
“We’ve been pretty disciplined in our approach over the years that we’re going to be able to take this challenge on without gutting our team,” Gutekunst said after the season.
If the Packers win the Super Bowl in 2021, nobody will care about the ramifications of these roster moves on 2022 and beyond. A Lombardi Trophy is the world’s best morphine in professional football. But, at some point, there will be pain.
Spotrac, using a cap estimate of $209 million for 2022, has the Packers $4.25 million over the cap. That’s with only 28 players on the roster. Five of those players – Rodgers, defensive tackle Kenny Clark, Bakhtiari and the Smith Bros. – have cap charges topping $19 million. And that doesn’t even include receiver Davante Adams, who is due a contract extension with his current deal expiring after the upcoming season. Remember, the offseason salary cap is based on there being 51 players on the roster. That means Green Bay is over the cap and 23 players short of that roster threshold.
So, if you thought the Packers performed some magic to get beneath the salary cap for 2021, wait until you see the feats that will be needed in 2022.
Ultimately, the situation might not be dire, just like it really wasn’t dire this offseason. A series of new TV contract are worth more than $105 billion over the next 11 years. That’s nearly twice as much money as the past set of contracts. With the players’ share of revenue increasing with the addition of a 17th game, significantly higher salary caps are in the future. Even if that doesn’t show up until 2023, Gutekunst and Ball can restructure/extend contracts to take advantage of what’s to come.
Still, it’s not always about cap space. It’s cap space in comparison to the rest of the NFL. For 2022, only Dallas is in worse shape than Green Bay. That could force the Packers to sit out free agency, much like they’ve done through the first several days this year.
For now, the plan seems simple: kick the can as far down the road as possible with Rodgers as the quarterback in hopes of winning the Super Bowl, then deal with the ramifications once his contract is off the books.
