What Could Packers Get From Jets For Trading Rodgers?

With the New York Jets' top decision-makers in California to make their pitch to Aaron Rodgers, what could the Green Bay Packers get in return? Here's what one executive said.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
Mar 7, 2023 8:57 PM EST

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Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers have signed off on the New York Jets’ courtship of Aaron Rodgers. Presumably, they’ve also had at least preliminary talks toward trade compensation.

What could the Packers get in return for their four-time MVP quarterback?

It probably won’t be a king’s ransom. It also probably won’t be the third-round pick the Packers got from the Jets for Brett Favre in 2008.

Packer Central reached out to a top NFL executive who has been part of putting together trades. It was a two-part question: What should Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst be asking for in return? And what should Jets general manager Joe Douglas be offering?

Even with the assumption that the Jets are the only team involved in trade talks and Gutekunst is unable to put together a bidding war, the executive thought the Packers would get back a first-round pick – or enough picks that it “adds up” to a first-round pick.

First, from Gutekunst’s perspective: A first-round pick and either a fourth-round choice or a “player on a rookie deal who’s good.”

Now, from Douglas’ perspective: A first-round pick with “some type of kickback or ask Gutey to pay [the contract down] in order to get a 1.”

Under that first scenario, Gutekunst could take a 2023 first-rounder and a 2024 fourth-rounder. That fourth-rounder could become a third-rounder if Rodgers leads the Jets to the playoffs or a second-rounder if Rodgers returns for the 2024 season.

Under that second scenario, think the opposite, with that “kickback” pick coming in 2024 and sliding in value depending on whether Rodgers plays another season. The financial component comes from Rodgers’ contract calling for a 2023 payout of more than $59 million. Jets owner Woody Johnson has plenty of money but why not push the envelope if the Packers really do want to turn the page to Jordan Love?

If Gutekunst can secure the Jets’ 13th pick to pair with his 15th pick, he’d be in strong position in this year’s draft, which lacks a lot of high-end talent but has plenty of depth.

Gutekunst could hold steady and get two quality first-rounders. Depending on free agency, the Packers could have major needs at defensive line, tight end, receiver and safety as well as outside linebacker and offensive line.

Of note, that 13th pick has a rich history of big guys. In fact, of the last 10 choices at that slot, five have been spent on defensive tackles, four on offensive linemen and one on a pass rusher. All nine players selected from 2013 through 2021 have been picked for at least one Pro Bowl. That list includes nine-time Pro Bowler and seven-time All-Pro Aaron Donald.

Six players have been inducted into the Hall of Fame, including tight ends Tony Gonzalez and Kellen Winslow.

If he wanted to get crazy, he could package No. 13 and No. 15. According to a trade value chart, the Packers could take those picks and move all the way up to No. 3 plus get a third-rounder. That could net them the best non-quarterback in the draft.

Gutekunst could package No. 13 and the Packers’ own pick at No. 45 and get to No. 5.

Gutekunst could package No. 13 and their own pick at No. 78 and get to No. 8 or No. 9.

He also could trade one of the first-rounders for a 2024 first-round pick. Next year’s draft is supposed to be stronger than this year’s draft, a scout said, and the Packers could save some cap space.