What Does Study Say About Gutekunst’s Draft History?

Sports Illustrated put together an interesting study of each team's NFL Draft history over the last five seasons. Here are the findings for the Green Bay Packers.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
Apr 15, 2023 2:44 PM EDT

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Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – If the Green Bay Packers are going to remain championship contenders following the transition from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love, it will be up to general manager Brian Gutekunst to hit some home runs in the NFL Draft.

Fortunately, Gutekunst has authored a strong resume.

According to a study by Sports Illustrated’s Matt Verderame, the Packers rank sixth in draft success since Gutekunst took over as general manager in 2018.

This wasn’t about simply looking at hits and misses. Rather, Verderame combined the success of the draft picks with the success of the team. The scoring system:

Each first-team All-Pro season: 5 points.

Each second-team All-Pro season: 3 points.

Each season as primary starter (per Pro Football Reference): 1 point.

Each regular-season victory: 1 point.

Each wild-card victory or bye week: 2 points.

Each divisional-round victory: 3 points.

Each conference championship: 4 points.

Each Super Bowl championship: 5 points.

The Packers, with their success in the NFC North and three first-round byes, wound up sixth with 92 total points.

Rodgers, of course, had a big hand in the team success with his back-to-back MVP seasons in 2020 and 2021. It helped that he made magic with receiver Davante Adams, a 2014 draft pick, and Robert Tonyan, an undrafted free agent, two players who were not reflected in these rankings.

Gutekunst’s draft picks, though, played a key role. His draft picks delivered 21 starting seasons (14th-most) and a couple second-team All-Pro seasons by cornerback Jaire Alexander. The draft picks were worth 27 points, 12th-most. (Note: Draft picks no longer on the team, such as 2018 receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling, aren’t reflected in the study because they’re not part of the team’s future.)

With a roster with some significant holes, without Rodgers there to apply Band-Aids and without the financial ability to add difference-making free agents, it’s critical that Gutekunst put together a big-time draft to kick off this next era.

Coming off an 8-9 season, the Packers own the 15th pick of the 2023 NFL Draft. That’s a rare spot for Green Bay given its record of success.

Rashan Gary was taken 12th in 2019 after the Packers finished 6-10 in 2018. Since then, Green Bay picked 26th in 2020 (quarterback Jordan Love), 29th in 2021 (cornerback Eric Stokes in 2021) and 22nd (linebacker Quay Walker) and 28th (defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt) in 2022.

It’s not just the 15th pick of the first round. It’s picking in the middle of every round, with No. 45 overall in the second round and No. 78 overall in the third round.

A trade of Rodgers would only add to the bounty.

OverTheCap.com attached points to the value of each draft pick. Added together, Green Bay has the 10th-most draft capital. If the Packers were to trade Rodgers for a second-round pick, that would move up to fifth.

In his five drafts, Gutekunst has made 12 picks in the first two rounds. While the jury is out on 2022 first-rounder Devonte Wyatt and 2021 second-rounder Josh Myers, and 2019 first-rounder Darnell Savage needs to get his career back on track, really only 2018 second-round cornerback Josh Jackson was a bust.

The third round, of course, has been a nightmare. With three busts – linebacker Oren Burks in 2018, tight end Jace Sternberger in 2019 and receiver Amari Rodgers in 2021 – and one suspension (2022 lineman Sean Rhyan), only 2020 tight end Josiah Deguara was on the roster by season’s end.

“With the Packers now set to give Jordan Love the starting quarterback job, we’re going to find out plenty about Green Bay’s drafting acumen,” Verderame wrote.