Will Defense Derail Packers’ Super Bowl Express?
GREEN BAY, Wis. – With Aaron Rodgers playing at an MVP level, Davante Adams dominating almost every week and Aaron Jones providing a quality running game, the Green Bay Packers have the offensive power to bring a 14th NFL championship back to Titletown.
But if it’s true that defense wins championships, are the Packers good enough to take a confetti shower on the night of Feb. 7?
The defense is probably a little better than it’s been deemed in the court of public opinion. Since the loss at Tampa Bay, the Packers have allowed a 14th-ranked 23.0 points per game the past eight weeks. Five enormous gaffes on special teams – two punt-return touchdowns, one blocked punt, one fumbled kickoff return and one long kickoff return – are responsible for 23 of the 184 points allowed during that span.
There have been two poor performances since the Tampa Bay game.
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The first was the 28-22 loss at home to Minnesota. On a miserably windy day when running the ball – and stopping the run – was paramount, the Packers gave up 163 rushing yards, 226 total yards and four touchdowns to Dalvin Cook.
The second was the 34-31 overtime loss at Indianapolis. There at least was a silver lining in that game, though, with the defense limiting the Colts to just six points on four turnovers and keeping them without so much as a first down on seven of 14 possessions.
To be sure, the decent stretch of defensive performances come with an asterisk. The Packers haven’t exactly faced the best offenses the NFL has to offer. The eight-game run includes games against Houston, Minnesota, San Francisco, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Chicago, Philadelphia and Detroit. From that group, only one team, Indianapolis (fifth), is in the top 10 in scoring.
Sunday’s opponent, Detroit, is just 18th in scoring. However, the Lions were coming off a 34-point performance in a win at Chicago in interim coach Darrell Bevell’s debut. Matthew Stafford is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. There’s no shame in holding that group to 24 points and 293 yards.
Really, the only thing that matters is the scoreboard and the turnover table. So, while Green Bay is an impressive eighth in total defense, it’s No. 16 with 24.8 points allowed per game and No. 17 with 2.31 points allowed per drive. That’s obviously not good, but can it be good enough given the efficiency on offense?
Defense wins championships, or so the saying goes. The Packers are on track to give up 397 points. Four teams with worse defenses have reached the Super Bowl, including the victorious Giants in 2011.
However, it’s important to note how quickly the game has changed. Just three years ago, the Packers allowed 384 points. That was No. 26 in the NFL. They’re poised to give up 13 more points this season but are 10 spots higher in the pecking order.
None of this is meant to build up the defense for something it is not. This is not the 2010 Packers, who were superb on defense. It lacks a signature performance. It hasn’t flat-out smothered an opponent. It’s No. 27 in takeaways and No. 28 in the red zone.
Can the Packers be more than a speedbump again a high-quality running back, such as Carolina’s Christian McCaffrey on Saturday and Tennessee’s Derrick Henry the following week? Can the pass rush deliver against better offensive lines than it beat up on the last two weeks? Can it get enough stops, in general, and clutch stops, in particular, against the likes of Seattle’s Russell Wilson, New Orleans’ Drew Brees or Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs?
Without question, the pressure will be on Rodgers to play at an MVP level, no different than usual. With Rodgers playing perhaps the best football of his brilliant career and the defense slowly trending the right direction, a championship is closer than it has been at any point since 2014.
