World’s Best Preview: Don’t laugh at Broncos offense
On Thursday, Green Bay Packers outside linebacker Preston Smith was asked about a potential shutout of the Denver Broncos.
Why not, given these extremes? Through two games, the Broncos are 28th in the NFL with 15.0 points per game. The Packers’ defense, on the other hand, is second with 9.5 points allowed per game. To be sure, nothing matters more than the scoreboard. In the history of mankind, the team that has allowed the fewest points in a game is undefeated. This season, the team that won the yardage battle is 21-11-1. The Packers were outgained by 86 yards against Minnesota and won; Denver outgained Chicago by 99 yards last week and lost.
So, while yardage figures can be a fool’s gold, a look beyond the scoreboard indicates the Broncos probably won’t be pushovers on Sunday, and a confident Packers defense better not be overconfident.
Football Outsiders’ drive stats show the Denver offense is better – and potentially much better – than the scores indicate. In terms of yards per possession, Denver is fifth with 42.0; Green Bay is a woeful 31st with 21.08. That’s easy math: Denver’s offense has been twice as productive as Green Bay’s offense from that standpoint. The Broncos actually lead the league with 8.18 plays per drive; Green Bay is 25th.
“They have some playmakers and they do a pretty good job of getting the ball to them,” Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine said on Thursday. “We’re facing another really good pair of wideouts in (Courtland) Sutton and (Emmanuel) Sanders. The two backs, (Phillip) Lindsey and (Royce) Freeman, the tape doesn’t lie. They’re not real well-known guys but hopefully our guys know about them.”
Denver acquired Joe Flacco from Baltimore for a fourth-round pick. Behind one of the great playoff runs in NFL history, Flacco led the Ravens to a Super Bowl championship in 2012. However, that brief burst of greatness has wound up being the pinnacle of his career rather than the jumping-off point. From 2013 through 2018, 36 quarterbacks threw at least 1,000 passes. Flacco ranks 34th in that group in passer rating.
With Denver, he’s been efficient. Through two games, his 69.1 percent completion rate is eighth in the league. Too careless with the ball at time with the Ravens, he’s thrown just one interception.
“Man, great quarterback. Legendary,” Packers outside linebacker Za’Darius Smith said of his former Ravens teammate. “He’s done been around a lot of great guys and won a Super Bowl at Baltimore.”
OK, there’s obviously some hyperbole from Smith but Broncos coach Vic Fangio sees the 34-year-old as good enough to get the Broncos back to their winning ways.
“I think he obviously can still throw the ball very effectively,” Fangio said in a conference call. “He had a nice game last week passing it. I think Joe can still play and can still play a long time.”
Flacco has two proven targets with receivers Sanders and Sutton, and rookie tight end Noah Fant is a game-breaking talent. In the backfield, it’s a timeshare between second-year backs Lindsay and Freeman. As rookies last year, Lindsay posted the second-most rushing yards by an undrafted rookie since 1970 to supplant Freeman, who is sixth in NCAA history in rushing yards, on the depth chart. Through two games, it’s the 6-foot-, 238-pound Freeman who has the upper hand (21 carries, 110 yards, 5.2 average) over the 5-foot-8, 190-pound Lindsay (24 carries, 79 yards, 3.3 average).
According to Sports Info Solutions, Freeman is averaging 2.8 yards after contact and Lindsay is averaging 2.4. They’ll test a defense that gave up almost 200 rushing yards against the Vikings and had all sorts of problems bringing down Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison.
“These are two dynamic backs,” Pettine said of the Denver tandem. “They both find a way to make guys miss. It looks like a play is not there, they’re gaining yards. These are guys we have to be very aware of and, unfortunately this week, we didn’t do a good enough of job against the run, but that’s something we talked about this week and make sure we improve.”
So what’s the problem? It’s been an inability to sustain drives. Denver is a mediocre 18th with a third-down conversion rate of 33.3 percent. Worse, it’s an abominable30th with a red-zone touchdown rate of 28.6 percent. In other words, moving the ball between the 20s has been fairly easy. The problem has been getting to the finish line.
In the red zone, Flacco is 7-of-16 for 41 yards with two touchdowns, one interception and a 64.6 rating. There are 25 quarterbacks with at least four red-zone passing attempts. Flacco ranks 23rd in completion percentage, 22nd in yards per attempt (2.6) and 22nd in passer rating. Improvement for the Broncos won’t be easy this week against a Green Bay defense that has more red-zone interceptions (two) than passing yards allowed (zero).
“We haven’t been able to finish drives,” Fangio said. “We haven’t had great field position. The defense and the special teams haven’t helped out field position-wise. We’ve moved it 20, 30 yards, 40 yards a drive, but then we stall out. We’ve got to be better in the red zone and we’ve got to be better once we cross the 50 to make sure we can get in field-goal range.”
