World’s Best Preview: Missing Lots of Slot Production
General manager Brian Gutekunst filled a lot of the Green Bay Packers’ holes in the offseason. One item that he couldn’t cross off his to-do list was improving the receiver corps, in general, and replacing Randall Cobb in the slot, in particular.
With his limited resources used mostly to provide desperately needed upgrades at outside linebacker and safety, Gutekunst bet on improvement from Geronimo Allison, who he re-signed in the offseason, and 2018 draft picks J’Mon Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown.
That improvement hasn’t taken place, at least not to the degree necessary to take any of the pressure off Davante Adams and give Aaron Rodgers a legit No. 2 threat. Moore was released and remains out of the league, a colossal misjudgment in the fourth round, and St. Brown was placed on season-ending injured reserve rather than being given a chance to return. Valdes-Scantling has made some plays – he’s tied for third in the league with three receptions of 40-plus yards, including a superb catch on the first play of the fourth quarter against Detroit – but hasn’t been a consistent producer. Allison has been even less of a consistent factor. Of 98 receivers with at least 20 percent playing time, he’s 84th with 0.90 yards per pass route and 79th with a drop rate of 13.3 percent, according to Pro Football Focus.
That’s not to say the Packers should have re-signed Cobb. He had only 17 receptions in his first five games with Dallas and might miss his second consecutive game with an injured back. In other words, the Cowboys are getting exactly what the Packers got the past few seasons from Cobb. However, his departure left a hole in the slot that the Packers haven’t gotten close to filling.
Entering Week 7, Green Bay has received 23 receptions and three touchdowns from its receivers aligned in the slot, according to Pro Football Focus. That’s 24th and tied for eighth, respectively. Coach Matt LaFleur dismissed that as a problem on Thursday. As is the case with any good coach, he’s adjusted to his talent.
“I’m less concerned with where it’s coming from,” LaFleur said of the team’s overall production. “I’m more concerned with making sure our process is right and making sure we’re attacking wherever we see holes in the defense. When that number is called upon, whether it’s a receiver or a tight end, that they make the play.”
As part of the same coaching tree, the Rams under Sean McVay and the 49ers under Kyle Shanahan are the best comparisons to Green Bay’s offense under LaFleur. From that perspective, slot production is fascinating given those are two of the best offenses in the NFL. Rams receiver Cooper Kupp leads the league by a wide margin with 36 slot receptions. Among receivers only, Los Angeles is second with 54 slot receptions (Arizona, 57). On the other hand, tight end George Kittle leads the 49ers with 11 slot receptions. Among receivers only, only five teams have fewer slot receptions than the Niners’ 20. Dante Pettis leads the way with seven.
Allison has played by far the most slot reps among Green Bay’s receivers, with 112 compared to 106 for the rest of the group combined. Of 59 receivers to get 20 percent playing time in the slot, Allison is 40th with 1.10 yards per route and 41st with a 58.8 percent catch rate, according to PFF. That’s not good enough, and it’s impacting the team. On first-and-10 in 11 personnel (one back, one tight end and three receivers – meaning there’s a receiver in the slot), the Packers are averaging a 25th-ranked 5.10 yards per snap, according to league data. The Rams, with the electric Kupp in the slot, are averaging 6.23.
Gutekunst made a move this week – though it wasn’t the type of big, bold, season-changing move that perhaps he should consider.
To believe newly acquired Ryan Grant is going to be the part of the solution in the slot is as much of a Hail Mary as the signing itself. Only once in his career has Grant even been a little bit of a factor in the slot. That was 2017, when he had career-high totals of 45 receptions for 573 yards and four touchdowns during his fourth and final season with the Redskins. That season, according to Pro Football Focus, he caught 16 passes for 167 yards and one touchdown from the slot. Among receivers, that ranked 48th in catches, 53rd in yards and tied for 49th in touchdowns.
From there, Grant signed with the Colts and hardly could have been less of a factor from the slot, with three of his 35 receptions and 64 of his 560 snaps. The Raiders – with perhaps the worst receiver corps in the NFL – gave up on Grant after two games this season. According to Pro Football Reference, among all receivers with at least nine targets in the passing game this season, Grant’s 1.56 yards per target is the third-worst in the league.
“He’s a polished route runner, sure-handed guy,” LaFleur said. “You just spend a few minutes with him, and you can tell he’s pretty sharp.”
For his career, 31 of his 123 receptions and 504 of his 2,158 snaps have come from the slot. In both cases, that’s in the neighborhood of 25 percent of his total production. So, can Grant help from the slot? Perhaps, but he’s probably not going to be a season-changing weapon.
“If he can bring some ability to the slot, that really gives us another weapon there,” Rodgers said. “We also might move some guys around. I think Allen did a good job playing that X position in the fourth quarter. Over the years, we have had big bodies from that spot. Jordy (Nelson) did it for years playing the slot receiver. Davante has done it before. Greg Jennings worked in the slot at times when he was here. So, it doesn’t really matter the body type. It’s really about the production and that certain player.”
Ryan Grant’s career slot production
From Pro Football Focus
2019: 2 of 4 receptions; 30 of 88 snaps.
2018: 3 of 35 receptions; 64 of 560 snaps.
2017: 16 of 45 receptions; 209 of 613 snaps.
2016: 2 of 9 receptions; 65 of 264 snaps.
2015: 6 of 23 receptions; 99 of 452 snaps
2014: 2 of 7 receptions; 37 of 181 snaps.
