AFC South Watch: Schedule Strength and Tough Stretches
Who you play and when you play them can have as much to do with an NFL team’s success – or lack thereof – as the talent on its roster.
An ill-placed bye week can leave a team with 13 straight weeks of football heading into the playoffs. A primetime Thursday night game can aid a team in building momentum. And a Monday night game can help a young quarterback make a name for himself.
In this week’s AFC South watch, we look at the potential problem spots and opportunities to gain ground for each of the division’s four teams.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans are predicted to finish with nine wins this season. And when looking at their strength of schedule, it is easy to see why. Tennessee is tied for 13th with an opponent win percentage of .507 (a combined 138-134 in 2020).
Some intriguing games include a matchup with the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2, leading into a critical Week 3 showdown with the Indianapolis Colts in Nashville. Following that, the Titans play the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football in Week 6 and the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 7, which means games the teams that played in last season’s AFC Championship six days apart.
Theoretically, things get easier from mid-November to the finish, but Tennessee must negotiate a stretch of four road games in six weeks beginning in October and a run of five straight against 2020 playoff teams that starts with the contest against Buffalo. And there is no break in there because the bye does not come until Week 13.
Indianapolis Colts
The predictions for Indianapolis sit at 10 victories, according to most sportsbooks, which makes the Colts the favorite to win the division. Some might say that is overvalued, but they have 23rd most difficult schedule, based on 2020 records (130-142), which means getting to 10 wins doesn’t sound too difficult.
The collective caliber of the opponents and the addition of quarterback Carson Wentz create optimism for a franchise that reached double-digit wins twice in the previous three years with different quarterbacks each time. They were 10-6 with Andrew Luck in 2018 and 11-5 with Philip Rivers in 2020.
Indianapolis’ eye-popping matchups include a trip to Baltimore in Week 5 to face Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. In Week 11, the Colts travel to Buffalo to play the Bills in a rematch of the AFC Wild Card matchup from January. And then, they follow that game with a matchup with the reigning Super Bowl champion, Tampa Bay, at home in Week 12.
If the Colts don’t take care of business early (six of their first 10 are at home, including three in a row from Weeks 8-10), they might not be able to make up ground at the finish.
Jacksonville Jaguars
As things stand now, the prevailing over-under for Jacksonville’s win total is six and a half, which would be a massive jump from their 1-15 performance in 2020. Their strength of schedule is 18th in the NFL (133-138-1). That along with first-time NFL coach Urban Meyer and quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the first overall pick in the draft, make them an interesting team.
Games that will test the Jaguars’ boom or bust potential are matchups with the Miami Dolphins in London in Week 6, one against the Bills in Week 9 and a Week 12 bout against former Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and his Atlanta Falcons. Plus, they open with an intra-division game at Houston and have the earliest bye among the AFC South (Week 7).
Four of their six division games come after their bye, which means they have time to come together before they play the ones that matter most. That is not to say Jacksonville will contend for the division title, but it could play a significant role in determining which team wins it.
Houston Texans
The Houston Texans’ will be focused as much on quarterback Deshaun Watson’s potential court schedule this fall as they will be their slate of games. Projections are for the Texans to finish last, and if Watson’s legal troubles result in a lengthy suspension or something more, things will only get more difficult.
In terms of strength of schedule, Houston is tied for 15th with an opponent win percentage of .504 (137-135), and the NFL didn’t give any breaks to a team seemingly down on its luck and adjusting to a new coach of its own (David Culley has replaced Bill O’Brien). The Texans play nine games before their bye and are never in the same time zone for consecutive contests during that stretch. They face four potential AFC playoff teams in an early five-game stretch –Week 2 at Cleveland, Week 4 at Buffalo. Week 5 vs. New England and Week 6 at Indianapolis.
For the third straight year, Houston will host the Titans in its regular-season finale. Tennessee won 35-14 in 2019 and 41-38 in 2020, and in both cases Derrick Henry ran for more than 200 yards (211 in 2019, 250 in 2020). If the Texans’ defense was too worn down to control Henry after 15 games, what will happen this year with the schedule expanded to 17 games?
