Trends That Turned in 2022
NASHVILLE – In Mike Vrabel’s first four seasons as head coach, the Tennessee Titans were one of the most consistent and successful teams in the league.
They dominated the AFC South. They protected Nissan Stadium. They locked opponents down when leading late. They bounced back from losses. They posted four straight winning seasons.
They found ways to record victories in almost every possible situation.
That’s what made the Titans’ 2022 season such a stunner, even using injuries as a significant disclaimer.
The Titans didn’t just stub their toe in comparison to previous years. They fell flat on their face, finishing 7-10 after seven straight losses.
All kinds of positive trends established over the previous four seasons went careening in the wrong direction this year.
Here are eight that stood out:
WINNING THE CLOSE ONES
• Record in games decided by three points or less in Vrabel’s first four years: 15-6 (.714 winning pct.)
• Record in games decided by three points or less in 2022: 1-3 (.250 winning pct.)
The red flag was raised on this front in the season opener when Randy Bullock’s missed field goal as time expired gave the New York Giants a 21-20 victory. The Titans turned away the Raiders’ two-point conversion the following week for a 24-22 victory, but there were two more tight defeats – a 20-17 overtime loss at Kansas City (Tennessee led late in the fourth quarter) and a 17-14 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers (the score was tied twice in the fourth quarter).
FINISHING STRON
• Record when leading after three quarters in Vrabel’s first four years: 27-2 (.931 winning pct.)
* Record when leading after three quarters in 2022: 7-4 (.636 winning pct.)
Heading into the fourth quarter of their make-or-break season finale against Jacksonville, the Titans held a 16-10 lead, which – in Vrabel’s first four years – meant a victory was all but assured. But in 2022 THEY coughed up twice as many fourth-quarter leads (four) as they had in Vrabel’s first four seasons (two) combined. In addition to losing despite a three-quarter advantage against the Jags, the Titans did the same against the Giants (they led 20-13 after three); the Chiefs (they led 17-9 after three); and the Texans on Dec. 24 (they led 14-10 after three).
TURNING TURNOVERS INTO WINS
• Record when winning the turnover battle in Vrabel’s first four years: 24-6 (.800 winning pct.)
• Record when winning the turnover battle this year: 3-4 (.428 winning pct.)
How many times have we heard Vrabel – and every other NFL coach – talk about the correlation between winning the turnover battle and winning games? But the Titans lost four times when winning the turnover battle in 2022, almost as many as they had combined in Vrabel’s first four years. Finishing plus-one was not enough to beat the Giants, Chiefs, Chargers or Cowboys.
WINNING WHEN HENRY RUNS FOR 100
• Record when Derrick Henry ran for 100 yards or more in Vrabel’s first four years: 21-5 (.807 winning pct.)
• Record when Derrick Henry ran for 100 yards or more in 2022: 4-5 (.444 winning pct.)
Henry finished strong in 2022, running for more than 100 yards in each of his last four games. But the Titans – who had the league’s 30th-best passing offense – didn’t win any of those contests. In fact, the Titans lost as many games this year when Henry hit 100 yards (five) as they did in Vrabel’s first four seasons combined. His production simply wasn’t enough to overcome the team’s other deficiencies.
BOUNCING BACK FROM DEFEAT
• Record the week after losing in Vrabel’s first four years: 15-8 (.652 winning pct.)
• Record the week after losing in 2022: 2-7 (.222 winning pct.)
The Titans were all but slump-proof in Vrabel’s first four seasons. Their longest losing streak during that stretch was three games in 2018 – when they fell to Buffalo, Baltimore and the Los Angeles Chargers in succession. But this year was completely different. They failed time after time to get back in the win column. If there’s any consolation, maybe it’s that five of the Titans’ six opponents during the losing streak (they played Jacksonville twice) were playoff teams. Only Houston was not.
DOMINATING THE DIVISION
• AFC South record in Vrabel’s first four years: 16-8 (.667 winning pct.)
• AFC South record in 2022: 3-3 (.500 winning pct.)
In winning back-to-back division titles in 2020 and 2021, the Titans went 10-2 in the division, sweeping Jacksonville in each of those seasons. In fact, the Titans had gone 7-1 against Jacksonville in Vrabel’s first four seasons. But the Jaguars de-throned the Titans in emphatic fashion in 2022, sweeping Tennessee for the first time since 2005 by scores of 36-22 and 20-16.
PROTECTING THE HOUSE
• Record at home in Vrabel’s first four years: 22-11 (.667 winning pct.)
• Record at home in 2022: 3-5 (.375 winning pct.)
The Titans had posted a winning home record in each of Vrabel’s first four years – going 12-5 over the past two years combined. But this year’s losing home record included defeats at the hands of Houston and Jacksonville, marking the first time the Texans and Jaguars had won in Nashville in the same season since 2004.
STEALING A FEW IN THE FOURTH
• Record when trailing after three quarters in Vrabel’s first four years: 12-21 (.363 winning pct.)
• Record when trailing after three quarters in 2022: 0-4 (.000 winning pct.)
It’s no small task to rally in the fourth quarter in the NFL. But the Titans under Vrabel had been good for at least a couple such victories every year, including 2021, when they rallied three times from fourth-quarter deficits. That wasn’t the case this year. The Titans had no real shot at rallying in losses to Buffalo, Philadelphia or the home game against Jacksonville. The Dallas game, however, was there for the taking, as the Titans trailed only 17-13 going into the fourth.
