History Says Henry Headed for Fantasy Fall
If history holds, running back Derrick Henry is in for a down fantasy year after rushing for 2,000-yards this season.
Henry finished the 2020 NFL season with 2,027 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns. He ran the ball 378 times and averaged 5.4 yards per rushing attempt.
Those audacious totals led him to rack up 333.1 fantasy points, making him the third-most effective fantasy running back. And after two outstanding fantasy seasons, Henry is all but a lock to be a top-five pick in most fantasy drafts next season.
Eight players in NFL history rushed for 2,000 yards, including Henry. The first seven were O.J Simpson, Eric Dickerson, Barry Sanders, Terrell Davis, Jamal Lewis, Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson.
Each saw a regression in yards, fantasy points and touchdowns the year following their 2,000-yard seasons.
“All seven backs who had previously rushed for over 2,000 yards experienced no less than a 562-yard decrease in rushing yards, no less than a 578-yard decline in scrimmage yards, and no less than a 99.4-point decrease in fantasy points the following year,” SI.com fantasy and gambling expert Michael Fabiano wrote. “…The average decline in rushing yards among the backs who played at least 12 games in the year after 2,000 was 807 and the average decline in points is 120.6.”
In Henry’s case, if this holds, 807 yards off of his rushing total from last season puts him at 1,220 yards on the season. The loss in yardage also eliminates 80.7 fantasy points from his previous 333.1, resulting in a total that drops to 252.4 points.
Take into consideration the routine drop in rushing touchdowns as well, and you will see Henry’s projected fantasy output plummet to 224 points. That is a total loss of 107 fantasy points.
According to this year’s statistics that would place Henry as the 10th best running back in fantasy football, directly behind Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott was labeled one of the biggest busts in the 2020 fantasy football season.
“There's a great chance Henry will see a decline (and maybe a significant one) in rushing yards and fantasy points next season,” Fabiano wrote. “A decline should be expected, a significant one appears likely.”
Henry’s outstanding season puts him in line to meet the same expectations of previous 2,000-yard running backs. The anticipated decline in on-field production also correlates with a loss of fantasy value. Yet, the threat of history repeating itself should not make the Tennessee Titans running back a fantasy stay away.
Magical seasons are always tough to follow up. The sequel is hardly ever as good as the original. So, fantasy owners beware of the expectations coming into next season for the star running back.
