History Suggests Henry Must Stay Busy to Get to 2,000
By now, it’s obvious. Everybody knows it. Derrick Henry is running for history.
The Tennessee Titans running back has run away with the league’s rushing race over the last several weeks, topping 100 yards or more in five of his last six games and nine times in total this season. He leads a once-close battle with Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook 1,679 yards to 1,484. Barring a disaster, he will be the first running back to lead the league in yards in consecutive seasons since 2006-2007 LaDanian Tomlinson (San Diego Chargers).
Becoming the eighth 2,000-yard rusher in league history also has become a possibility. He needs 321 yards in the final two games to get there and while it is a tall task, nothing seems to be out of reach for Henry these days.
The biggest impediment could be his need to rest up for the postseason. Henry currently leads the league with 321 carries. En route to the rushing title last season, he ran it 303 carries then added 83 more in three postseason contests.
Henry has talked about how he takes care of his body and stays ready for a high volume of carries every week. He has registered at least 20 attempts in 10 games this season. But with a postseason berth almost guaranteed this season, the Titans pumping the breaks on Henry soon would make sense.
“Thse are things that I have to weigh,” coach Mike Vrabel said recently. “[People will] be second guessing no matter what we do, or what decisions we make.
“I just think you have to look at the situation and see what's going on and understand how excited the players are for (Henry). And the offensive line, I think they feel as much a part of what he does, like it’s them doing it. They are just a part of it, and I think that's great, that's great for our psyche, for our confidence and everything that we're doing, but also just being smart and where he's at physically and where everybody's at physically.”
And that leads to the question: What does history suggest is likely to happen over the next two weeks?
Of the seven 2,000-yard rushers in league history, nearly all of them received a high volume of carries in the final weeks of the season to get there, playoff bound or not.
A look at how many carries each of them got in the final weeks of those season:
• Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings, 2012: Peterson rushed for 2,097 yards and his workload did not diminish in the final weeks because the Vikings needed him to win as they did not clinch a playoff spot until Week 17. He finished the season with 348 carries and in the final three weeks, he received 24 carries, 25 carries and a season-high 34 carries.
• Chris Johnson, Titans, 2009: There was not much of a reason for the Titans to limit Johnson’s carries in 2009, finishing 8-8 on the season. Johnson became the first and only player in Titans/Oilers history to reach 2,000 rushing yards in a season and he got more than 20 carries in each of the final five games of that season. He had a season-high 36 in Week 17 against Seattle to reach 2,006 yards for the season.
• Jamal Lewis, Baltimore Ravens, 2003: The Ravens made the playoffs at 10-6 needed Lewis’ efforts to get them there. Lewis finished the season with 384 carries for 2,066 yards. He registered 20 carries or more in each of the final four games, including 30 in Week 14 and 27 in Week 17 (third most he had in a game that season).
• Terrell Davis, Denver Broncos, 1998: The Broncos went 14-2 and made the playoffs with ease in 1998 en route to a Super Bowl victory. Davis still recorded more than 20 carries in each of his final five appearances that season, including 29 in Week 17 (his third most that season) He finished with 392 total carries for 2,008 yards.
• Barry Sanders, Detroit Lions, 1997: The Lions finished the 1997 season with a 9-7 record and qualified for the postseason. Sanders had 335 carries for 2,053 yards and had 19 carries or more in each of his final four contests, including a season-high 30 in Week 15.
• Eric Dickerson, Los Angeles Rams, 1984: The Rams reached the postseason in 1984, but Dickerson’s workload never slowed down. He had more than 20 carries in all but one game that season. He had 25 or more in each of the final five games, including a season-high 33 in Week 15, 27 in Week 16 and 26 in Week 17. He had an NFL single-season record 2,105 rushing yards by season’s end.
• O.J, Simpson, Buffalo Bills, 1973: The Bills missed the postseason with a 9-5 record, but Simpson became the only player in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards or more in the league’s 14-game regular season format, which ended in 1978. In the final weeks of the season, Simpson totaled – in order – 15 carries, 22 carries, 24 carries and 34 carries, five shy of his season-high.
