Oddsmakers, Analysts See AFC South Shift
NASHVILLE – The two-time reigning AFC South champions are on the ropes.
That’s the prevalent opinion of many NFL oddsmakers and league analysts, anyway, regarding the Tennessee Titans.
Most offseason forecasts initially favored the Titans – last year’s top AFC playoff seed – to claim a third straight division title in 2022.
That’s all changed over the last few days, following the Indianapolis Colts’ acquisition of veteran quarterback Matt Ryan. Not even Tennessee’s trade for productive wide receiver Robert Woods has been enough to push Tennessee back into the favorite’s position.
• The gambling website sportsbetting.ag, for instance, lists the Colts’ odds to win the AFC South at +115 (meaning a correct $100 bet would return $115), followed by the Titans at +120, Jaguars at +600 and the Texans at +2200. Prior to the deal for Ryan, Indianapolis had been +200, well behind the Titans.
• In the eyes of DraftKings, the Colts surged from +160 to +110 following the Ryan deal while the Titans slipped from +110 to +130.
• FanDuel now lists the Colts and Titans in a dead heat for the AFC South favorite spot (both +120), according to oddschecker.com.
Will Indianapolis’ addition of Ryan make the kind of difference some are forecasting, considering he will turn 37 years old in May and posted some pretty so-so stats last season (20 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 90.4 passer rating) in Atlanta? Granted, Ryan should be better in 2022, with a much better overall offense around him than he had last year with the Falcons.
Adam Schein, contributing columnist for NFL.com, writes that the addition of Ryan “puts the Colts ahead of the Titans in the AFC South – and that speaks volumes, considering Tennessee was just the No. 1 seed despite Derrick Henry missing half of the year.”
Then there’s the analytics website Pro Football Focus, which uses its offseason improvement index to forecast change in the coming season. Thanks in large part to the Ryan trade, PFF lists the Colts as having had the second-best offseason improvement at 12.98 percent to date, trailing only Denver at 16.18 percent. The Titans are 14th at 2.02 percent.
“Ryan adds roughly one win to the Colts' projection, ending up a net positive even after including the loss of Carson Wentz,” wrote PFF’s Kevin Cole.
One could make the case, of course, that the Colts (9-8 in 2021) had more room to improve than the Titans (12-5), who finished three games above Indianapolis last season.
In any event, here’s a quick look at some of the more significant offseason moves (not every single one) for each of the AFC South teams, with a hat tip to Deniz Selman for his excellent tracking.
HOUSTON TEXANS
• Most significant re-signings/additions: C Justin Britt; DL Maliek Collins; LB Kamu Grugier-Hill; CB Desmond King; LB Christian Kirksey; Edge Ogbonnia Okoronkwo.
• Most significant departures: Edge Jacob Martin; S Justin Reid; QB Tyrod Taylor; QB Deshaun Watson.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
• Most significant re-signings/additions: TE Mo Alie-Cox; Edge Yannick Ngakoue; QB Matt Ryan.
• Most significant departures: TE Jack Doyle; T Eric Fisher; G Mark Glowinski; Edge Al-Quadin Muhammad; WR T.Y. Hilton; RB Marlon Mack; WR Zach Pascal; CB Xavier Rhodes; QB Carson Wentz; CB Rock Ya-Sin.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
• Most significant re-signings/additions: TE Evan Engram; DL Folorunso Fatukasi; CB Tre Herndon; WR Zay Jones; WR Christian Kirk; LB Foyesade Oluokun; T Cam Robinson; G Brandon Scherff; CB Darious Williams.
• Most significant departures: WR D.J. Chark; LB Myles Jack; G Andrew Norwell.
TENNESSEE TITANS
• Most significant re-signings/additions: TE Austin Hooper; C Ben Jones; OL Jamarco Jones; Edge Harold Landry; TE Geoff Swaim; WR Robert Woods.
• Most significant departures: LB Jayon Brown; LB Rashaan Evans; RB D’Onta Foreman; CB Jackrabbit Jenkins; WR Julio Jones; T David Quessenberry; G Rodger Saffold.
