Predictions for the Season Based on the Offseason

NASHVILLE – Nothing is set in stone. Things can – and will – change between now and when the Tennessee Titans open the 2022 NFL season on Nov. 11 against the New York Giants.

Players will be injured. Players will be signed. Roster spots will be won and lost during training camp and the preseason.

Much of that cycle will repeat itself over the 18 weeks and 17 contests that comprise the regular-season schedule.

Thus, what is true now will not necessarily remain that way. Particularly since many notable players missed all or parts of the voluntary portion of the offseason training program. Some – defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons and rookie wide receiver Treylon Burks chief among them – were not even available for the mandatory minicamp that was the final phase of that program.

“I feel like guys know each other better. I think there's a better connection,” coach Mike Vrabel said at the conclusion of the minicamp. “There are guys that developed I feel like some techniques that maybe they weren't used to, whether that was in a different team or in college. … Some guys looked better after eight weeks than what they did - or nine weeks [ago].”

But what will he, his staff and the rest of the football world see nearly three months from now and beyond? It is difficult to know for sure, but based on what we have seen thus far, here are five predictions for what is to come.

Roger McCreary will play more snaps on defense than Caleb Farley

Even if Farley stays healthy (and that is a big ‘if’), the second-round pick in this year’s draft still will see more action. At 5-foot-11, 190 pounds, McCreary lacks the eye-popping physical attributes of Farley, who is 6-foot-2, 197 pounds. But this is a question of experience. McCreary played almost as many games in his final two seasons at Auburn (22) as Farley has since he left high school (27).

Farley is basically still learning to play the position while McCreary matched up against NFL-caliber receivers almost weekly in the SEC. Therefore, while Farley is more capable of making the spectacular play, he also is more prone to making a disastrous one.

Coaches hate surprises. So, it won’t take long for them to settle on McCreary as the steadier option and look for ways to use Farley in special personnel packages and/or matchup situations.

Austin Hooper will lead the team in receptions

It has been four seasons since a tight end was this team’s leading receiver, but the addition of Hooper in free agency combined with the nearly complete overhaul of the wide receiver group (A.J. Brown was traded, Julio Jones was cut, Chester Rogers and Marcus Johnson were not re-signed) means quarterback Ryan Tannehill and offensive coordinator Todd Downing will have to simplify things in the passing game.

Until Tannehill develops the appropriate level of trust and understanding with Robert Woods, Treylon Burks and others, expect him to drop back and get the ball out to the first available (and open) target. That will be Hooper, who will specialize in short and intermediate routes and will look to regain his Pro Bowl form after two years in Cleveland during which he averaged 42 receptions.

Tannehill’s desire to get the ball out quickly will be heightened by the fact that he was sacked more than any quarterback except one in 2021 (Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow) and he will be playing behind an offensive line that has yet to be settled. It all means plenty of targets for Hooper.

Derrick Henry will be a 1,000-yard rusher once again

It is not that Henry ran hard, cut on a dime or displayed nasty explosiveness during the mandatory minicamp that ended the offseason program. It is the way he talked about the surgically repaired foot that caused him to miss the final nine games of the 2021 regular season (even with that, he still ran for 937) that is cause for optimism. The two-time rushing champion was light-hearted, to the point and never sounded as if he was trying to convince anyone (least of all, himself) of his health when he met the media for the first time this offseason. In his mind, it was simply a non-issue, which was in stark contrast to Taylor Lewan and Bud Dupree a year earlier in the wake of their respective knee injuries.

To think that Henry ever will regain the form he showed over all or parts of three seasons (2019-21) before the injury is naïve. But he was so dominant during that time that even if he is only 90 percent of what he was, that still will be better than most.

Over the last 10 years, no back topped 1,000 rushing yards more than four times (Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Frank Gore and Ezekiel Elliott each did it four). Henry is one of several with three 1,000-yard seasons over that same stretch. He has had enough time to recover from the surgery, but not enough time has passed for coaches to think of anyone else as the centerpiece of the offense. Forget the idea that Henry will be the first player in NFL history with two 2,000-yard seasons, but he will serve notice that he is still much more than half the back he was.

Dillon Radunz will get a chance to be Kristian Fulton 2.0

In terms of immediate impact, the Titans could have done better with their second-round pick in 2021 than Radunz, a tackle out of North Dakota State. He appeared in just 12 of 17 games and logged significant offensive snaps in three. In his one start (Week 15 against San Francisco), he was not overwhelmed but he was far from dominant as well.

All of that will be forgotten come training camp. Coaches will trust that Radunz can do the job for which they drafted him. That means he will be installed as the starter at right tackle and will stay there until he proves he cannot handle it. Make no mistake, this will be a leap of faith rather than the next logical step based on what has happened up to this point, but there really is no other option at this point.

Fulton’s performance in 2021 will give everyone confidence that Radunz can handle it. A second-round pick in 2020, Fulton played just six games (two starts) as a rookie before he sustained a season-ending injury. Nonetheless, he was tapped as a starter earlier the next offseason after management released three-quarters of the previous season’s starting secondary (cornerbacks Malcolm Butler and Adoreé Jackson, and safety Kenny Vaccaro). Fulton was the Titans’ best cornerback last season. They don’t need Radunz to be their best offensive lineman this year. They just need him to be good enough to belief their search for a long-term option at right tackle finally has ended.

Harold Landry will finish with more sacks than Bud Dupree

In a way, this will be the first year of the partnership between the high-profile edge rushers that franchise officials hope will help set this defense apart from most others. Dupree’s willingness and ability to get himself on the field at the start of last season, roughly nine months removed from reconstructive knee surgery, was impressive and commendable. Ultimately, though, it was too much, too soon (even he admitted as much midway through last season), and in the 11 games he played he was pretty much ordinary at best. Of course, Tennessee signed him to a five-year, $82.5 million contract a little more than a year ago with the idea that he would be much more than ordinary.

Even without much help from Dupree, Landry set a career-high and finished among the NFL’s top 10 with 12.5 sacks last season. That led to Landry getting a big payday of his own (five years, $87.5 million) this offseason.

If each measures his worth in sacks, it will be almost impossible for both to pay the expected dividends. Dupree clearly benefited from playing opposite of T.J. Watt during his later years in Pittsburgh, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t productive or valuable. In fact, he built quite a reputation despite the fact that he had more than eight sacks just once in six years. Landry is not the type to rest on his laurels now that his bank account has been stuffed, and if Dupree plays as much and as well as he did with the Steelers, he will create even more opportunities for Landry to increase his sack numbers.