2022 NFL Draft: Will Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and the Vikings Trade Down in the First Round?
Former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman became known as the king of the trade down during his lengthy tenure in Minnesota. No GM executed more draft-day trades than Spielman from 2012 to 2021, with the majority of those resulting in the Vikings moving back and accumulating additional draft capital. He moved back in the first round in each of his last two drafts (2020 and 2021), and loved to move back on Day 2 and Day 3 as well. Generally speaking, it was a savvy philosophy that worked out well.
Will new GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah follow in those footsteps? This year's draft is going to be fascinating because we have no idea how Adofo-Mensah will approach the draft or what he'll do. This is his first draft as an NFL GM, so everything is in play.
However, what we do know about Adofo-Mensah is that he's a process-oriented, analytics-friendly guy. My guess is that profile lends itself more to trading down than it does to moving up. There's plenty of data out there that says because teams aren't as good at drafting as they think they are, moving down and getting more cracks at finding talent is the smart approach.
The Vikings hold the No. 12 overall pick in this year's draft. Obviously, I assume they'll stay put and make their selection at 12 if someone they love is available. Maybe a top-ten prospect like Sauce Gardner, Kyle Hamilton, or Kayvon Thibodeaux falls to them. Maybe they really like Derek Stingley Jr., Trent McDuffie, or Jermaine Johnson, to name a few possible options. Heck, maybe Adofo-Mensah will make the Vikings' first trade up within the first round since 1987 if he really wants to go get a specific player. That would be very surprising, though.
If the Vikings' pick is approaching and none of the available players have a ton of separation from some other names on their big board, I'd expect Adofo-Mensah to work the phones and consider moving down. Let's say Gardner, Hamilton, Thibodeaux, and Stingley are all gone. If they have McDuffie rated similarly to other corners like Kaiir Elam and Andrew Booth Jr., why not move down a bit and take one of those guys with a slightly later pick? There will be intriguing defensive linemen, linebackers, and wide receivers available later in the first round as well.
A big reason why I could see the Vikings trading down is the gap between their third and fourth scheduled selections. Minnesota has pick 12 in the first, pick 46 in the second, and pick 77 in the third. But with no fourth-rounder because of the Chris Herndon trade, they don't pick again until nearly 80 slots later at 156 overall in the fifth round. Moving down in the first would likely allow the Vikings to add another top-100 pick, which could become a talented player.
In order for the Vikings to move down, a team has to be willing to come up. But you can usually find a partner who wants to go up and get a guy. This year's draft has several quarterbacks and offensive tackles who could be enticing enough to make a team trade up. A recent rumor from Pro Football Network's Tony Pauline suggested the Chargers — who hold the 17th pick — could be interested in trading up with the Vikings to get Northern Iowa OT Trevor Penning. The Saints (16 and 19) and Steelers (20) make sense as potential trade partners as well. Last year, the Jets came out of nowhere and moved up from 23 to 14 to get Alijah Vera-Tucker, with the Vikings still landing their LT of the future in Christian Darrisaw after moving down.
Even with Spielman gone, the Vikings trading down in the first round is a possibility to keep in mind as the draft approaches.
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