How Week 17 Will Affect The Vikings' 2021 NFL Draft Slot
Heading into the final week of the regular season, the 6-9 Vikings currently own the No. 13 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. There are four other 6-9 teams; they're behind the Cowboys and Chargers on strength of schedule (easier SOS is the tiebreaker for draft positioning) and ahead of the 49ers and Patriots.
Here's what the order looks like right now:
However, there's still a full week of games to be played, so the Vikings aren't locked into the 13th spot. Based on the remaining results, their draft pick could rise as high as No. 9 and fall as low as No. 15. Here's a breakdown of the probabilities that they end up with each pick, courtesy of ESPN Analytics' Seth Walder.
As you can see, they're probably going to remain in the 13/14 range. But those numbers take into account the fact that the Vikings are expected to beat the Lions in Week 17. Given that the Lions just lost 47-7 to the Buccaneers, that's understandable. But if the Vikings do lose that game (which they won't try to do), they have a chance to rise a bit higher in the draft order.
Look at it this way: if the Vikings beat the Lions, their range of pick is 13-15. If they lose, the range is 9-13.
First, let's assume the Vikings win and finish 7-9. If the Patriots lose to the Jets (winners of two straight, all of a sudden) they would jump ahead of the Vikings. If the 49ers lose to the Seahawks, they would also jump the Vikings. That would be the worst-case scenario where Minnesota ends up with the 15th pick. If the Patriots and 49ers win, the Vikings pick 13th.
Now, let's say the Vikings lose in Detroit and end up 6-10. Neither the 49ers nor Patriots can pass them in that scenario. If the Chargers win (they play a Chiefs team that will rest plenty of starters after locking up the AFC's top seed), the Vikings would pass them. Same with the Cowboys beating the Giants. That moves the Vikings up to 11th.
There are a couple of 5-10 teams who could fall below the Vikings if they win in Week 17 and the Vikings lose. Those are the Panthers (who play the Saints) and the Broncos (who play the Raiders). If those teams both win, in addition to the Chargers, Cowboys, and Washington (more on them in a second), the Vikings could get up to the No. 9 overall pick. However, that's obviously quite unlikely.
I don't believe the Vikings can pass the Lions in the draft order, even if they lose to them on Sunday and both teams finish 6-10. The Lions have a .504 strength of schedule, which is easier than the Vikings at .508. If the Lions win, that gap would widen slightly, so I don't think other results could make up the difference.
Where things get interesting is if the Giants beat the Cowboys and the Vikings lose. All three teams would be 6-10. The Vikings would be behind the Cowboys on SOS, but it would be close with the Giants, who currently have a .506 SOS. The gap between the Giants at .506 and the Vikings at .508 would widen slightly in that case, but it may be possible that other results could give the Vikings the edge.
Also, if the Giants or Cowboys wind up winning the NFC East (meaning Washington loses to the Eagles), the Vikings would finish behind Washington in the draft order. If the Cowboys win the division, they swap with Washington and nothing really changes. If the Giants win the division, the Vikings would finish behind both Dallas and Washington. If Washington wins and the Cowboys win, Minnesota would pick ahead of both (but not the Giants). The Vikings are guaranteed to finish behind at least one of those three NFC East teams if they lose, and potentially two. That's why the Cowboys and Washington winning is important (if the Vikings lose).
If the Chargers, Cowboys, Broncos, and Panthers all lose and the Lions and Giants have easier strengths of schedule than the Vikings, Minnesota could remain at No. 13 even if they lose to the Lions.
Hopefully that all makes sense!
TL;DR – The Vikings will pick between 13 and 15 if they beat the Lions and between 9 and 13 if they lose to the Lions. Here's the rooting guide for Vikings fans wanting to pick as high as possible:
- Patriots over Jets
- 49ers over Seahawks
- Lions over Vikings
- Chargers over Chiefs
- Cowboys over Giants
- Washington over Eagles
- Panthers over Saints
- Broncos over Raiders
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