Justin Jefferson vs. Sauce Gardner and Other Vikings-Jets Matchups to Watch
For the fourth consecutive week, the Vikings are set to face a top-four defense in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric.
The current defensive DVOA leaders, in order, are the Cowboys, Patriots, Bills, and Jets. Sunday's game against New York will complete a stretch of four games against those teams in 22 days for Minnesota. The Vikings have a chance to go 3-1 in that stretch with a win over the Jets, which would be awfully impressive. A victory would also complete a sweep over the AFC East, whose four teams all have winning records.
As is the case against any elite defense, it won't be an easy task. Robert Saleh, the former 49ers defensive coordinator who is in his second season as the Jets' head coach, has implemented a scheme that's difficult to play against. Just as importantly, he has talented players at all three levels, led by young stars Quinnen Williams and Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner.
The Jets' defense ranks fourth in DVOA, fourth in points allowed per game (17.8), and sixth in opponent EPA per play. Their offense isn't a total slouch either, especially now that Mike White has replaced the floundering Zach Wilson at quarterback. White is a capable passer who benefits from having a solid offensive line and some explosive weapons at his disposal. He lit up the Bears for 315 yards and three touchdowns without a turnover in a 31-10 win last week.
Let's break down some of the top matchups to watch on Sunday.
Justin Jefferson vs. Sauce Gardner
Any discussion of the biggest matchups in this game has to start here.
Jefferson is, at minimum, one of the three best receivers in the NFL right now. He's proven himself over his entire three-year career, breaking all kinds of records and showing virtually zero weaknesses. With 81 catches for 1,232 yards in 11 games, he's one yard shy of Tyreek Hill for the league lead. Jefferson is coming off of winning the NFC's Offensive Player of the Month award for a second consecutive November.
Gardner, the No. 4 overall pick in this year's draft out of Cincinnati, is already one of the game's best cornerbacks. He leads all corners in PFF grade and leads the league with 14 pass breakups. Per PFF, Gardner has given up 23 catches on 53 targets, good for a completion percentage of 43.4 and a passer rating of 47.6. He hasn't allowed more than 51 yards in a game this season and has given up just one touchdown all year — to the Browns' Amari Cooper back in Week 2.
"The confidence in his play, but physically just the size and length (stand out)," Vikings offensive coordinator Wes Phillips said. "He’s really long. He’s physical, he doesn’t back away. He gets up there, he’s confident, he doesn’t care who’s in front of him, and he’s got the length to recover and hold guys up at the line of scrimmage where it makes it really tough if you don’t really work your release. And even if you do, he can still get hands on you and slow you up."
Both Jefferson and Gardner have said that they're excited for this matchup, although it's unclear exactly how much we'll see it. They should face off against each other plenty, but the Jets haven't had Gardner shadow teams' top receivers this season. They have a lot of confidence in D.J. Reed Jr., who's also playing at a very high level as the other starter on the outside.
"They generally kind of anchor those corners in, in this scheme, and make it challenging that way as far as recognizing different coverages," Phillips said. "They can show you zone and play man, and vice versa."
"They've been doing great the whole season," Jefferson said of Gardner and Reed.
"Looking at the film, they haven't really let anybody go up top, big, on them. Going into the game, we know that. I feel like we have a good game plan."
Jefferson won't only be going against Gardner. But whenever No. 18 and No. 1 do line up across from each other, expect fireworks to follow.
The Vikings' O-line vs. the Jets' D-line
In order for Kirk Cousins to have time to get the ball downfield to Jefferson and his other weapons, the Vikings' offensive line needs to hold up. That didn't happen against the Cowboys, when Cousins was under constant pressure and was sacked seven times in a blowout loss. Four days later, the Vikings changed some things with their approach and the O-line played much better as Cousins was sacked only once in a big bounce-back victory over the Patriots.
This week presents another major challenge against another elite defensive front. The Jets rank fifth in pressure rate and seventh in total sacks (34). They have a deep, talented group on the defensive line, led by Williams, the 2019 third overall pick. Just shy of his 25th birthday, the fourth-year pro already has eight sacks and 38 pressures this season, ranking fourth in PFF grade among all interior defensive linemen. He's going to be a huge problem for the middle of the Vikings' offensive line.
In addition to Williams, the Jets have talented guys like Sheldon Rankins and Nathan Shepherd on the inside. They also have a deep, dangerous rotation of edge rushers. John Franklin-Myers and Carl Lawson are the starters, but don't discount players like Bryce Huff, Micheal Clemons, and Jermaine Johnson Jr. (a Minnesota native who was one of New York's three first-round picks this year). The Vikings will likely once again be without Christian Darrisaw, so the pressure will be on Blake Brandel, Ed Ingram, and the rest of the O-line on Sunday.
“Quinnen’s a hell of a football player," Phillips said. "Really, I didn’t know a lot about Shepherd, the other defensive tackle, and he’s been really impressive on tape. Franklin-Myers, Lawson...what you see is that scheme that Robert (Saleh) brought there from San Fran. They can get pressure with a four-man rush, which is always challenging in any scheme. It’s going to be a big challenge and it’ll be a physical, tough game."
Mike White against the Vikings' defense
The Jets needed to make a change at quarterback. Wilson, last year's No. 2 overall pick, wasn't getting it done. In stepped White, who showed some flashes in four appearances last season and promptly torched the Bears in his first start of 2022.
"He was up to the task," Vikings defensive coordinator Ed Donatell said. "He was getting the ball out of his hands quick, making good decisions. They were blocking well, catching well. Doing all the things good teams do."
White famously went 37 of 45 for 405 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions in his first career start last season, a 34-31 win over the eventual AFC champion Bengals. It was one of just four games the Jets won all year. Between that performance and Sunday's win over the Bears, he's two for two in having big outings in his first start of a season.
With that said, White is still a backup-caliber quarterback. Two weeks after that Bengals win, he completed 55 percent of his passes and threw four interceptions in a 45-17 loss to the Bills. White finished the year with five touchdown passes and eight picks in four games.
The situation around him is much better this season — there's no doubt about that. Even with Mekhi Becton and Alijah Vera-Tucker injured, the Jets' offensive line has been above average. And even though star rookie running back Breece Hall is out for the season, the Jets have plenty of weapons. Garrett Wilson, the No. 10 pick this year, has over 90 yards in three of the last four games and looks like a future star. Elijah Moore and Corey Davis are good complementary pieces, as is former Vikings tight end Tyler Conklin.
Still, this could be a good get-right spot for the Vikings' struggling defense, which ranks 31st in yards allowed per game. Ed Donatell's unit should be able to get pressure on White with Za'Darius Smith, Danielle Hunter, and the return of Dalvin Tomlinson, which would help the likes of Patrick Peterson and Harrison Smith make plays on the back end. Unless White has really taken a step forward this season, he'll throw some risky passes.
It'll be up to the Vikings to make him uncomfortable and create takeaways when the opportunities present themselves.
Thanks for reading. Make sure to bookmark this site and check back daily for the latest Vikings news and analysis all offseason long. Also, follow me on Twitter and feel free to ask me any questions on there.
