How Realistic is a Kirk Cousins Trade This Offseason?
Matthew Stafford being traded to the Rams this past weekend kicked off what is expected to be an unprecedented offseason of quarterback movement in the NFL. Deshaun Watson is headed out of Houston soon, perhaps with Sam Darnold or Tua Tagovailoa included in the package to get him, and as many as half of the teams in the league could have a new signal-caller this fall.
The Vikings aren't expected to be one of those teams. But the Stafford trade, combined with some less-than-credible reports making waves on social media, has stirred up the conversation about whether or not Minnesota would consider moving Kirk Cousins this offseason.
It's an understandable thing for fans to wonder about. Cousins has developed a reputation during his time with the Vikings as someone incapable of living up to his hefty price tag. The three-year, $84 million fully guaranteed contract he signed in 2018 is burned into fans' psyches, even if that quickly became the going rate for a QB of his abilities. The one playoff win in three seasons is a bigger issue, although Cousins doesn't deserve all of the blame for the Vikings' shortcomings during his tenure.
In fact, Cousins has been far better than most of the general NFL-viewing public realizes, because the narratives surrounding his career still somehow outweigh his actual on-field performance. There's a perception that by adding Stafford, the Rams secured an elite quarterback who was held back by his surroundings in Detroit and can take LA back to the Super Bowl. Well, Cousins has been clearly better than Stafford since joining the division. And sure, you can argue that Cousins has had a slightly better supporting cast, but the Lions provided Stafford plenty of talented pass-catching weapons and arguably a better offensive line than the perpetually awful one Cousins has dealt with in Minnesota.
But at the same time, Cousins appears to have a pretty defined ceiling. Despite playing at a top-ten level since the Vikings changed their scheme in 2019, he has still put up several clunkers per season that are hard to overcome. When he's under constant pressure, whether in rivalry games against the Packers and Bears, the 2019 divisional round against the 49ers, or this past December against the Buccaneers, he's generally unable to escape the pocket and make things happen off-schedule. Cousins' cap hits of $31 million and $45 million over the next two seasons aren't as crazy as they might seem given the current market for quarterbacks, but they still hamstring the Vikings' ability to build a team around him.
It probably comes down to this: if you don't think the Vikings can win a Super Bowl with Cousins, you're likely open to the idea of trading him.
But it's not that simple or easy.
When thinking about a Cousins trade, you have to consider the broader context of the Vikings as they head into next season. Head coach Mike Zimmer and GM Rick Spielman, despite both signing extensions last summer, are under significant pressure to win in 2021. If they don't, both could be on their way out of Minnesota.
And barring a trade for Watson, which is highly unlikely for a number of reasons, no available quarterback gives the Vikings a better chance to win this fall than Cousins does. They wouldn't be better off with Jameis Winston or Andy Dalton or Ryan Fitzpatrick or any other free agent QB. The No. 14 pick isn't high enough to get one of the top QBs in the draft.
Perhaps there could be a scenario where Zimmer and Spielman go to ownership and agree to trade Cousins, take a step back in 2021, and build for the future with a rookie quarterback sitting behind a bridge guy. But that seems unlikely too. The Vikings have reason to believe they have the pieces to make one more run with this core group. Guys like Adam Thielen, Harrison Smith, and Eric Kendricks aren't getting any younger. The offense was excellent for most of 2020, but it was held back by pass protection, special teams, and an injury-ravaged defense. I'd imagine Zimmer believes that all of those things are fixable, and that the team's window that opened back in 2015 hasn't closed just yet.
Pinning their hopes on a rookie QB would be a major risk for the Vikings, especially when you consider that they probably don't have the ammo to move up into the top five in the draft. Maybe that's a risk you think the Vikings need to take to get over the hump, but Zimmer and Spielman might not be afforded the chance to stick around and see the long-term result of such a decision.
Zimmer has talked about how he wants continuity on the Vikings' offense. He loves what Cousins did over the past two seasons in the Gary Kubiak scheme, thriving in play-action and letting Dalvin Cook handle a lot of the offensive load. Whoever replaces Kubiak at offensive coordinator will almost certainly keep the same scheme. Cousins has a rapport with Thielen and Justin Jefferson. Trading the veteran quarterback, who has stayed perfectly healthy and been consistently productive, doesn't seem like something Zimmer and Spielman want to do at this point in time.
Even if they did explore trading Cousins, they'd have to find a team willing to take on his $56 million in salary over the next two seasons (including a $35 million 2022 base salary that becomes fully guaranteed on March 19). They'd also have to eat $20 or $30 million in dead money from Cousins' signing bonuses over the next two years, depending on when the trade happened.
Let's say the 49ers come calling with an enticing offer. Much has been made of Kyle Shanahan's infatuation with Cousins from their time together in Washington, with Shanahan admitting he had his eyes on signing Cousins back in 2018. The Vikings would presumably receive Jimmy Garappolo in return, just like the Lions getting Jared Goff back from the Rams. Regardless of what that trade might look like, Garoppolo would almost certainly make the Vikings worse in 2021, even if he was able to stay healthy. And even if the Vikings managed to get the No. 12 pick from San Francisco in that deal, they still wouldn't be in position to land a top quarterback this year.
Where else could Cousins be traded? Perhaps to the Broncos and new GM George Paton, who helped bring Cousins to Minnesota three years ago? The Vikings aren't getting the No. 9 pick out of that deal. Who would be their quarterback then? Drew Lock? A free agent?
When looking at the situation realistically and holistically, it becomes pretty clear that the Vikings are unlikely to trade Cousins. Zimmer will want to give it another shot with this group in 2021 after getting back a bunch of key pieces on defense and hoping for growth from recent draft picks. And outside of selling the farm for Watson, no quarterback gives the Vikings a better chance to win in 2021 than Cousins.
If the 49ers or someone else comes to Minnesota with an offer they can't refuse, it's possible that Cousins will be on the move. Anything is possible in the NFL. But if you're a Vikings fan desperately hoping to see Cousins traded elsewhere this offseason, you're probably going to be disappointed.
Thanks for reading. Make sure to bookmark this site and check back daily for the latest Vikings news and analysis all offseason long. Also, follow me on Twitter and feel free to ask me any questions on there.
