Making the Case For Justin Jefferson as the Best Wide Receiver in the NFL
Is Justin Jefferson, at 23 years old, already the best wide receiver in the NFL? He absolutely belongs in the conversation with just a few other names.
Sam Monson from Pro Football Focus wrote about that conversation on Monday, breaking down some of the numbers in Jefferson's favor.
For starters, Jefferson leads all players in receiving yards since entering the league as the fifth receiver drafted in 2020, with 3,016. He's done that despite ranking seventh in targets over that time span, playing in an offense that prioritized the run more than the Vikings likely will this year. Per Monson, the Vikings were the 8th-most run-heavy offense over the past two years.
Yards per route run is one of the best stats to measure a receiver's efficiency and explosiveness. Here are the leaders in the regular season since 2020, among players with at least 200 targets:
- Davante Adams: 2.88
- Justin Jefferson: 2.62
- A.J. Brown: 2.58
- Cooper Kupp: 2.56
Deebo Samuel is slightly above Jefferson, but doesn't meet the target threshold as he played in just six games in 2020. Jefferson's LSU teammate Ja'Marr Chase had an elite rookie year — he could break Jefferson's records for yards in a player's first two seasons and yards before turning 23 this year — but his YPRR was just 2.51.
Adams is the king of YPRR over the last two seasons, but it's worth remembering that he caught passes from Aaron Rodgers, who was the league's MVP in both of those seasons. It'll be interesting to see if his efficiency drops now that he's playing with Derek Carr in Las Vegas.
How about PFF receiving grade over the past two seasons? Jefferson is again right there, only trailing Adams.
| Receiver | 2020 PFF grade | 2021 PFF grade |
|---|---|---|
Davante Adams | 92.2 | 92.7 |
Justin Jefferson | 90.4 | 90.1 |
A.J. Brown | 90.1 | 84.4 |
Cooper Kupp | 80.8 | 92.3 |
Stefon Diggs | 89.4 | 82.1 |
Tyreek Hill | 83.2 | 85.1 |
DK Metcal | 82.7 | 80.9 |
Let Monson explain what makes Jefferson so dominant:
The best three PFF grades when lined up in the slot last season were from Cooper Kupp, Adams and Jefferson, but Jefferson also trails only Adams in grade when lined up on the outside since he entered the league.
Against man coverage, Jefferson is once again in the top three, and nobody has a better grade against press coverage. When he has faced press coverage — the question teams had about him as a prospect — he has gained 3.27 yards per route run and generated a 129.5 passer rating. He also has nine more explosive plays than any other receiver over the last two seasons in those situations.
Jefferson already has elite route-running skills and the ability to defeat aggressive man coverage. He’s also extremely good after the catch, as he has broken 22 tackles after the catch since entering the league.
Jefferson is great in the slot — as we saw at LSU — and on the outside, especially against press coverage. He's great against zone coverage. He gets open, breaks tackles after the catch, and makes contested catches down the field. The only area where Jefferson could improve a bit is in the touchdown department; he has 17 in 33 games, largely because Adam Thielen dominates targets in the red zone.
Based on the numbers and film, the only players in the conversation with Jefferson for best wide receiver in the NFL are Adams, Kupp, Chase, and Tyreek Hill. Players like A.J. Brown and Stefon Diggs are just outside that top tier.
Kupp and Chase produced at elite levels in 2021, but they didn't do it in 2020 like Jefferson (in Chase's case, because he wasn't in the league yet). Hill is a unique player because of his speed, but his advanced metrics and all-around game doesn't quite match up with Jefferson.
That leaves just Adams. If you want to call Adams the best receiver in the league, it would be hard to argue. But the difference in quarterback quality between Rodgers and Kirk Cousins can't be ignored. Jefferson has more yards on fewer targets playing with an inferior quarterback. That's the case in his favor. Regardless of who you believe is the league's best WR, Jefferson is right there at the top and should continue to get better as he enters his third season — and his first with an offensive-minded head coach leading his team.
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