How High Could the Vikings Pick in the 2022 NFL Draft? Week 18 Rooting Guide
Some Vikings fans want to see their favorite team crush the Chicago Bears on Sunday and end a disappointing season on a high note.
Some fans are looking ahead to the future, are perhaps confused as to why Mike Zimmer is playing his starters in a meaningless game, and want to see the Vikings improve their draft positioning with a loss.
There's nothing wrong with either view, nor is it a black-and-white thing. You can cheer for the Vikings this week while also recognizing that a potential loss might not be the worst thing in the long run.
For those looking to next April, let's break down the range of outcomes for the Vikings' first round draft slot and how various Week 18 games might affect it. This is your Minnesota Vikings 2022 tank-fest rooting guide.
Heading into Week 18, the 7-9 Vikings are currently slotted to pick 12th overall. The tiebreaker for draft position is strength of schedule, where the Vikings are roughly average. That's the combined winning percentage of all 17 of a team's opponents, even the one they haven't played yet. It can only change slightly with just one game left to play.
Here's the current draft order, via Tankathon:
Rooting guide
Bears over Vikings (Noon CT)
This is the most important one, for obvious reasons. With a loss, I believe the Vikings would jump past the Bears in the draft order (though the SOS is close enough that I'm not 100 percent sure, and I'm not going to take the time to calculate it). At 7-10, the Vikings could pick anywhere from 7th to 12th. At 8-9, they'd pick between 12th and 15th.
Even with Kirk Cousins and other starters playing, a loss to Andy Dalton and the Bears is certainly a possibility for the Vikings. Chicago has no reason to tank, as their pick belongs to the Giants anyways.
Broncos over Chiefs (Saturday)
This one seems quite unlikely, as the Broncos are ten-point underdogs against a Chiefs team that still has seeding to play. Because Denver's SOS is so poor, the only way the Vikings pass them in the draft order is with a loss and a Broncos upset.
Washington over Giants (Noon CT)
Here's a much more doable one. If Washington beats the woeful Giants to get to 7-10 and the Vikings lose, Minnesota will jump past them because of the SOS tiebreaker.
Browns over Bengals (Noon CT)
The Browns are currently slotted to pick one spot behind the Vikings at 13, so this is just about a minor difference in the event the Vikings win. If the Browns beat the Joe Burrow-less Bengals, they'll stay behind the Vikings no matter what. If the Browns lose and the Vikings win, Minnesota will end up picking between 13th and 15th.
Seahawks over Cardinals (3:25 CT)
A Seahawks upset over Arizona and a Vikings loss could spring Minnesota past Seattle in the draft order, although the SOS might be close. The Seahawks played well last week against the Lions and, like the Bears, have no incentive to tank because the Jets own their pick.
Falcons over Saints (3:25 CT)
Atlanta's dreadful SOS means they can only be passed if they beat the Saints and the Vikings lose. The Falcons did beat the Saints last time they played, so it's possible, but New Orleans still has a chance to get into the playoffs and will be looking for revenge. If the Saints do lose and the Vikings win, the two will be very close on SOS somewhere in the 12th to 15th pick range.
Dolphins over Patriots (3:25 CT)
A Dolphins loss and a Vikings win sends Minnesota to the 13-15 range because of Miami's poor SOS. Anything else and the Dolphins' pick, which belongs to the Eagles, stays behind the Vikings'.
Best-case scenario for draft positioning
The Vikings lose to the Bears. The Broncos, Washington, Seahawks, and Falcons win. The Vikings get the No. 7 overall pick.
Worst-case scenario for draft positioning
The Vikings beat the Bears. The Browns, Dolphins, and Saints lose. The Vikings get the No. 15 overall pick (or 14, pending the SOS tiebreaker with New Orleans).
The most likely outcome
Somewhere in between, likely around No. 9/10 with a loss and No. 12/13 with a win.
And yes, that's a minor difference. The draft is a crapshoot and the Vikings got Justin Jefferson at No. 22 overall, so maybe it doesn't matter. But then again, if the Vikings had lost to the Lions in Week 17 last year, they would've been in position to draft Micah Parsons or Rashawn Slater.
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