Minnesota Vikings: NFC Playoff Picture, Tiebreakers, Week 14 Rooting Interests
Surviving what would've been the biggest blown lead in NFL regular season history on Thursday night kept the Minnesota Vikings firmly in the mix for a wild card spot in the NFC, and they can get even closer with some help on Sunday.
The 6-7 Vikings currently occupy the No. 8 seed in the conference, and their playoff odds still aren't great despite the win over the Steelers. ESPN's FPI gives them a 33 percent chance to make the playoffs, while FiveThirtyEight is slightly higher at 35 percent.
The latter number could go up to 41 percent or down to 27 percent by the end of Sunday, pending the result of two critical games. Before we get into that, here are the current, pre-Sunday standings.
Games to watch on Sunday with Vikings relevance
Washington (6-6) vs. Dallas (8-4) — 12:00 p.m. CT, FOX
The Vikings need to be big Cowboys fans on Sunday. Washington currently holds the No. 6 seed in the NFC and has a big leg up on all the teams below it because of its fantastic 5-2 record against conference opponents, which is the most important tiebreaker outside of head-to-head. There's no scenario where Washington can fall behind the Vikings this week because of that tiebreaker, but having them drop to 6-7 and lose a third conference game would be huge.
The Cowboys are 4.5-point road favorites in this game. Their offense, on paper, should be able to have a big day against the WFT defense. However, Washington has been a tough out recently, winning four in a row after a 2-6 start.
Update: Dallas won 27-20, which was big for the Vikings.
Cincinnati (7-5) vs. San Francisco (6-6) — 3:25 p.m. CT, CBS
This is another big one. The Vikings need to root hard for Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and the Bengals to hand the 49ers their seventh loss of the season. Despite playing at home, the Bengals are 1.5-point underdogs in this game against a talented 49ers squad. San Francisco has a critical head-to-head advantage over the Vikings, but there's a scenario where they fall behind Minnesota this week due to the tiebreaker procedures when three or more teams have the same record.
Both of these teams are coming off competitive losses — the Bengals to the Chargers, and the 49ers to the Seahawks.
Update: San Francisco won a 26-23 thriller in overtime, bad news for the Vikings.
New York Jets (3-9) vs. New Orleans (5-7) — 12 p.m. CT, CBS
This one isn't as important, but a Jets upset as 5.5-point underdogs would be a pleasant surprise for the Vikings. Even if the Saints win as expected, they'll be behind the Vikings on conference record (but would be more of a factor to deal with going forward than if they lose).
Update: New Orleans won in a 30-9 rout.
Carolina (5-7) vs. Atlanta (5-7) — 12 p.m. CT, FOX
The winner of this game becomes more relevant for now and is involved in the tiebreaker scenarios at 6-7, though either one would trail Minnesota on conference record. The Falcons aren't very good and the Vikings have a head-to-head win over the Panthers, so neither team is a major threat at the moment.
Update: Atlanta won 29-21.
Tiebreakers to know (AKA how the Vikings could be back in the No. 7 seed after Sunday)
The San Francisco and Washington games are very important ones. If both teams win, the Vikings' playoff odds go down to 27 percent (per FiveThirtyEight). If they split, the odds stay put at 35 percent. If both lose, the Vikings will be up to a 41 percent chance to reach the postseason, which could go up to 58 percent with a win over the Bears next Monday night.
In the scenario where SF and Washington both lose, the Vikings would suddenly find themselves back in the No. 7 seed in the NFC. Here's how:
If SF and Washington lose
- Washington, SF, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Atlanta or Carolina, and possibly New Orleans would all be 6-7. That means head-to-head results against non-divisional opponents don't matter for now, because we go to the wild card tiebreakers for three or more teams.
- The first step is to "apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division." That eliminates the Eagles from contention for one of the top two spots, because they have a worse conference record than Washington. It also means we don't need to worry about New Orleans even if they beat the Jets, because they have head-to-head losses to both Carolina and Atlanta in their lone meetings so far.
- That leaves Washington, SF, Minnesota, and the Atlanta-Carolina winner. A team would surge to the top or bottom if they had beaten or lost to every other member of the group, but we can ignore that because Minnesota and Washington haven't played each other, among other missing games.
- The next tiebreaker is conference record. Washington, even after losing to Dallas in this scenario, leads the way at 5-3, so they get the No. 6 seed for now. The Atlanta-Carolina winner will be the only team of the four with a sub-.500 conference record, so they only pass Philly for the No. 9 seed.
- Minnesota and SF will both have a .500 conference record no matter what. The next tiebreaker is common games. SF is 1-5 against Detroit, Green Bay, Arizona and Seattle, while the Vikings are 3-2 against that group. That's how Minnesota ends up in the No. 7 seed (for now) if Washington and SF lose on Sunday.
Of course, that's probably a far more detailed analysis than is needed with four whole weeks still to play after this one. The 49ers' head-to-head win over the Vikings could still come into play if they end up in a 1-to-1 tiebreaker, and the conference records and common games records will change as well over the rest of the season.
TLDR: Vikings fans need to root for Dallas to beat Washington and Cincinnati to beat San Francisco on Sunday. The Jets beating the Saints would be an added bonus. If Washington and San Francisco both lose, the Vikings will be back in the No. 7 seed in the NFC heading into Week 15 and get a sizable boost to their playoff odds. Of course, Minnesota's fate really depends on its own business, with a 3-1 record potentially necessary to sneak into the playoffs (though 2-2 might do it with some help).
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