Ranking the Five Candidates to Step Up in the Vikings' Passing Game With Irv Smith Jr. Hurt
The Vikings are preparing to be without tight end Irv Smith Jr. for the entire season after he underwent surgery to repair his meniscus last week. A widely-anticipated breakout campaign for the 2019 second-round pick will be put on hold for a year while he recovers.
It's a huge loss for Minnesota's offense for a number of reasons. Not only was Smith stepping into their TE1 role with Kyle Rudolph gone, he was clearly going to be the No. 4 weapon for Kirk Cousins and coordinator Klint Kubiak after the big three of Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen.
If one just looks at past production, this might not seem like a major blow. Smith's 66 catches, 676 yards, and seven touchdowns in 29 career games are not eye-popping statistics. Looking at what he did this offseason is more telling. The 23-year-old Smith had a phenomenal training camp, consistently performing like one of the Vikings' best players. When Jefferson missed a few weeks with a shoulder scare, it was Smith who stepped up and became one of Cousins' most frequent and reliable targets. The first series of the preseason finale in Kansas City offered a small taste of what was to come, with Smith using his quickness in space to pick up gains of 23 and 16 yards, most of that coming after the catch.
Smith was likely going to play a near every-down role, lining up in different spots and helping the offense with his abilities as a receiver and blocker.
"We were planning on using Irv a little bit more on third down as a slot receiver," Mike Zimmer said. "Probably won’t do that now. Probably go with three wide receivers. Some of those things we’ll have to adapt and change."
Losing Smith creates a void in the Vikings' offense that needs to be filled. Tyler Conklin will step into the TE1 role, while new acquisition Chris Herndon is the de facto favorite for the TE2 job — ahead of Brandon Dillon and Ben Ellefson — due to the production he had as a rookie and the resources that were given up to get him. But beyond those two, the depth wide receivers are now more important as well, which Zimmer alluded to. Whoever wins the WR3 job will likely see more snaps than they would've in a world with a healthy Smith, and the fourth and fifth receivers may see slight bumps as well.
Whether they play tight end or wide receiver, the Vikings need at least one player to step up to help mitigate the pain of Smith's injury. Having those secondary weapons playing at a high level would make things easier on Cook, Jefferson, and Thielen. So with that in mind, let's rank the five leading candidates in order of how likely they are to emerge as key contributors in a Smith-less offense.
1. Tyler Conklin
Conklin has to be the choice here. He was already ticketed for the biggest role of his career with Rudolph in New York, and now that opportunity has only grown bigger. Entering the final year of his rookie deal, the Central Michigan product will get a chance to prove what he can do with a significant snap count and plenty of targets in the passing game. Because of Conklin's experience in the Vikings' offense and what he showed last December, I don't think there's much risk of Herndon surpassing him in the pecking order this season.
In the four games Rudolph missed at the end of last season, Conklin and Smith put up very similar numbers.
- Smith: 203 snaps, 20 targets, 15 catches, 183 yards, 3 TDs, 68.5 PFF grade
- Conklin: 202 snaps, 23 targets, 15 catches, 168 yards, 1 TD, 62.6 PFF grade
"It prepared him," offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak said of that four-week stretch. "It showed us as coaches and his teammates that he can carry that load."
Conklin is a solid blocker with good hands and some deceptive juice after the catch. He had a strong offseason, showing a nice rapport with Cousins throughout OTAs and training camp, although he was sidelined by minor ankle and hamstring ailments at times. Because of the importance of the tight end in the Vikings' offense, Conklin could play more than 75 percent of their snaps. Although his target volume could fluctuate, the looks are going to be there throughout the season. If he makes the most of them, Conklin could set himself up for a nice payday this offseason.
2. Dede Westbrook
Sorting out which of the Vikings' candidates for the No. 3 receiver job will have the biggest impact is a tricky task. Osborn probably holds that title right now after a very strong training camp, while Smith-Marsette is an explosive rookie who also impressed throughout the offseason and has a bright future. But I'm going to lean towards the one guy with proven NFL production, and that's Westbrook.
The former Biletnikoff winner at Oklahoma had back-to-back 66-catch seasons with the Jaguars in 2018 and 2019, recording eight touchdowns and over 1,300 receiving yards during that span. He has legitimate 4.4 speed and is experienced as a route-runner. Westbrook missed basically the entire offseason while recovering from tearing his ACL late in October 2020, but I think he has the talent to jump ahead of Osborn and Smith-Marsette on the depth chart before long. WRs coach Keenan McCardell's familiarity with Westbrook should help in that regard, as well.
3. K.J. Osborn
Osborn is a great example of why we shouldn't rush to judgment on players who were rookies during the strange COVID-affected 2020 season. After doing nothing as a receiver last year and struggling in the return game, he looked like an entirely different guy this offseason. Osborn trained with some of the game's top receivers during the summer and took advantage of a full offseason with OTAs, minicamp, training camp, and preseason games. He was one of the biggest pleasant surprises on the Vikings' roster during camp, making tons of plays and stepping into the starting offense when Justin Jefferson missed time. To cap it off, Osborn led Minnesota with seven catches for 110 yards in the preseason.
Will it be enough to hold off a healthy Westbrook for the WR3 job? I'm not sure it will, which is why I have Osborn ranked here. But it's entirely possible that he continues to play well and holds onto that job, becoming a notable part of the Vikings' offense this season. Osborn's daily performances during camp were too impressive to not take him seriously this fall. Let's see if it translates to the regular season.
4. Chris Herndon
The Vikings wouldn't have sent a fourth-round pick to the Jets (getting a sixth and some cash back) if they didn't think Herndon could help them this year. His career got off to a promising start with a highly efficient 502-yard, four-touchdown season as a rookie, but his 2019 was hurt by a suspension and injuries and he put up pedestrian numbers last year, although he did finish strong. Herndon has reportedly struggled with drops and focus at times this year, causing him to fall out of favor in New York.
With that said, the physical tools and talent that made him an ascending player just a few years ago are still there, and a change of scenery could be exactly what Herndon needed. Going from a Jets team that went 13-35 in his three years — two of those with Adam Gase at the helm — to a Vikings team that expects to contend this season is a big jump in culture and overall talent. If Herndon can get up to speed quickly, he could have a valuable role as Minnesota's No. 2 tight end.
5. Ihmir Smith-Marsette
I'm high on Smith-Marsette's potential with the Vikings and think he'll have an important impact this season — just as a returner, not a receiver. It wouldn't shock me if it happened, but there are too many other weapons on this offense to predict big things from the rookie fifth-round pick. He needs to keep developing as a route-runner while focusing on the contributions he can make on special teams. But Smith-Marsette had an impressive training camp, and his explosive ability in the open field could lead to a sizable role on offense in 2022.
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