What the Russell Wilson and Carson Wentz Trades Mean For Kirk Cousins and the Vikings
The conversations between NFL general managers at this year's combine must've been juicy, because this week has seen quarterback dominoes start to fall left and right. First there was the somewhat expected news that Aaron Rodgers is returning to the Packers in 2022. Then two huge trades of starting QBs were announced on back-to-back days.
On Tuesday, George Paton and the Broncos gave up a massive haul to get Russell Wilson from the Seahawks. They sent three players (Shelby Harris, Noah Fant, and Drew Lock), two first-rounders, two second-rounders, and a fifth-rounder for Wilson and a fourth. Denver needed a top QB to complete its talented roster and contend with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert in the AFC West, and they went all in to make it happen. They've now got Wilson under contract for two seasons at a very reasonable price and will presumably work on an extension either this year or next.
On Wednesday, in a slightly less shocking but still significant trade, the Washington Commanders gave up a pair of Day 2 picks to acquire Carson Wentz from the Colts. Specifically, they gave up a 2022 third and a 2023 conditional third (which can become a second) and moved back slightly in this year's second round to get Wentz. A critically important detail in that deal is that Washington took on Wentz's entire $28.3 million 2022 salary.
The quarterback market is officially open and active, which leads to the question of whether or not Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and the Vikings will consider getting involved.
With Rodgers and Wilson off the board, Kirk Cousins might be the best remaining veteran QB who could be available this offseason. That title is up in the air depending on Deshaun Watson's legal situation, Derek Carr's extension talks with the Raiders, and how you feel about Jimmy Garoppolo/Jordan Love/Jameis Winston, but the general point is the same: Cousins' price is probably going up due to pure supply and demand. The free agent and draft classes at the position are considered pretty weak, which could make him an appealing option for someone.
An argument can be made that there are more potential Cousins suitors than there were two days ago before these trades went down. The Broncos are no longer an option, but Washington was never realistic given their history with Cousins. And suddenly, both the Colts and Seahawks need a QB, although Seattle might be considering a rebuild. Indianapolis making a move for Cousins feels like a legitimate possibility. The Panthers, Steelers, Saints, Buccaneers, and Browns are all still QB-needy, and there are wild cards like the Giants, Dolphins, and Texans, too.
All it takes is one of those teams to make Adofo-Mensah an offer that blows him away.
The Vikings, specifically Adofo-Mensah and head coach Kevin O'Connell, have given every indication that they like Cousins and are excited about seeing what he can do in a new offensive system. I believe them. But everyone has a price, and the Vikings' new decision-makers have at least left the door open to some extent. I remain skeptical that Adofo-Mensah and O'Connell will dole out top dollar to Cousins on an extension that commits themselves to him for several years. Letting him play out the final year of his current deal seems like the most likely option at the moment, but a trade this year would bring back a bigger return than the compensatory third-rounder they'd get if he walked in free agency next spring. It would also reset their salary cap situation a year earlier.
The Wilson and Wentz trades seem to indicate that the Vikings could get more for Cousins — without retaining any of his salary — than I previously thought. He won't command a haul like the Seahawks got for Wilson or the Lions got for Matthew Stafford last year, but that doesn't mean his market is light. Washington giving up two Day 2 picks and taking all of Wentz's 2022 salary is evidence of that.
Cousins is clearly better than Wentz. As such, it doesn't feel unrealistic for the Vikings to get a first-round pick from a team for Cousins — and for that team to take his entire $35 million base salary, leaving the Vikings with just $10 million in dead money. If they could get, say, a first and a third without eating any of Cousins' salary, would that be an offer the Vikings couldn't refuse?
The debate over whether or not the Vikings should trade Cousins is a complicated one that has been raging on social media all offseason. I won't dive into both sides again here, but it's worth noting that the Vikings wouldn't have a clear replacement at quarterback if they made a trade. The same reason other teams might be interested in Cousins — the free agent and draft QB classes not having any obvious answers — are also reasons the Vikings might want to keep him for at least 2022. It's entirely possible Adofo-Mensah and O'Connell are serious about Cousins being their quarterback this year.
But again, all it takes is one team to make an offer that blows them away. If the Vikings' new leadership doesn't view Cousins as their long-term answer at quarterback because of his price and mediocre record as a starter, it wouldn't make sense for them to be completely opposed to moving on now.
The quarterback dominoes are falling fast now. Prices are high and teams could get desperate. Cousins staying in Minnesota is still the most likely scenario, but it wouldn't be shocking if the Vikings got involved in the wheeling and dealing soon.
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