Taking Stock of the NFC Playoff Picture Entering Week 10

The Vikings aren't that far out of a playoff spot, but there are a ton of teams right around them.

Winning two straight games has rejuvenated the Vikings' season and gotten them back into the NFC playoff picture, even if they still have plenty of work to do. Heading into a crucial Week 10 matchup against the Bears on Monday Night Football, let's take a look at the NFC standings so you have an idea of which teams to be rooting against this week and every week going forward.

Here are the current playoff teams:

1. New Orleans Saints: 6-2 (NFC South leader)

2. Seattle Seahawks: 6-2 (NFC North leader)

3. Green Bay Packers: 6-2 (NFC North leader)

4. Philadelphia Eagles: 3-4-1 (NFC East leader)

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-3

6. Arizona Cardinals: 5-3

7. Los Angeles Rams: 5-3

The Saints and Seahawks have narrow leads in their respective divisions. The Eagles have some cushion in the awful East, while the Packers are up 1.5 games on the Bears and three games on the Vikings in the North.

Here are the other playoff contenders:

8. Chicago Bears: 5-4

9. San Francisco 49ers: 4-5

10. Minnesota Vikings: 3-5

The Lions, Falcons, Panthers, Washington Football Team, Cowboys, and Giants are unlikely to make a run towards the playoffs, though it's not out of the question with so many games remaining.

With it being highly unlikely that the Vikings could make up a three-game deficit to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in the second half, they need to focus on securing one of the three wild card spots.

Here's the remaining strength of schedule ranking for each of the top ten teams, according to ESPN's Football Power Index:

Saints: 6th

Seahawks: 23rd

Packers: 31st

Eagles: 14th

Buccaneers: 10th

Cardinals: 5th

Rams: 4th

–

Bears: 22nd

49ers: 9th

Vikings: 29th

That would seem to bode well for the Vikings, with each of the Saints, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Rams, and 49ers in the top ten in remaining schedule difficulty. The Cardinals and Rams currently hold the 6th and 7th seeds and have top-five strength of schedules the rest of the way.

For one more comparison, let's take a look at what the analytics think about each of the NFC contenders. Here is their average ranking among four advanced measures: ESPN's FPI, Football Outsiders' DVOA, Pro Football Focus's overall team grades, and FiveThirtyEight's ELO.

Saints: 3.0

Seahawks: 5.0

Packers: 5.75

Eagles: 24.0

Buccaneers: 3.75

Cardinals: 13.25

Rams: 8.5

–

Bears: 17.5

49ers: 11.5

Vikings: 13.5

That is far from a perfect measure, but it should give us some sense of the true quality of each NFC contender. It would appear that the Vikings' best chance of getting into the playoffs is to pass the Cardinals, although the Rams are also within reach. Don't forget about the 49ers, who are too good to go down without a fight, even with all of their injuries.

Of course, the most important thing for the Vikings to do is take care of their own business. Monday night's game against the Bears isn't technically a "must-win game," but it certainly feels that way. Winning and getting to 4-5 would keep the Vikings in the thick of things with three winnable home games (against the Cowboys, Panthers, and Jaguars) up next. Losing and falling back to 3-6 would give them virtually zero margin for error during the final seven games.

The Vikings almost certainly need to have a record of at least 6-6 after Week 13, although 7-5 would be preferable. That's because two of their final four games are against the Buccaneers and Saints, and rematches with the Bears and Lions are far from automatic wins. Those games against the top two teams in the NFC South will give the Vikings chances to pick up impressive victories over teams who might end up directly in front of them for a wild card spot, but they'll be very difficult given that both are on the road.

I'll have a Week 10 viewing/rooting guide posted ahead of Sunday's action, so keep an eye out for that.

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