Three Reasons Why The Vikings Should Trade Down in the First Round of the 2021 NFL Draft
Vikings General Manager Rick Spielman has become known for his love of trading down in the NFL Draft during his tenure in Minnesota. He has made more draft-day trades than any other GM in the league since taking over in 2012, with the vast majority of those resulting in the Vikings moving down. Spielman was back at it last year, trading down from 25 to 31 on Day 1 (adding a fourth and a fifth in the process), trading the final pick of the third round for four Day 3 picks, and picking up two 2021 picks in Day 3 moves.
That track record should give fans confidence that Spielman will do the smart thing this year: trade down from the No. 14 overall pick.
Sure, there's an argument that the Vikings should capitalize on their disappointing 7-9 season by using their highest draft pick since they selected Trae Waynes 11th overall in 2015. And if they truly love a player at that spot — maybe someone like Rashawn Slater or Patrick Surtain II falls, maybe they want to pounce on a defensive lineman — then I have no issue with the team's decision-makers going that route.
But overall, I think trading back from 14 is the right call this year. Let's go over the three main reasons why such a move makes sense.
Trading down is usually a good move, but it might be especially smart this year
For years, studies have shown that trading down in the draft is a smart strategy. Teams tend to think they're better at evaluating prospects than they actually are, and moving down to accumulate additional picks gives you more chances to find impact players. The Vikings and Patriots are two teams who have done well by following that philosophy.
In 2021, trading down might be smarter than ever. As ESPN's Bill Barnwell pointed out in a recent article, this year's draft is going to be even more of a crapshoot than usual. With no NFL combine, many players having opted out of the 2020 season or only playing a handful of games, and other COVID-based changes, there's simply less information than there typically is. Because of that, Barnwell argues that there's more reason than ever to trade down and give yourself more lottery tickets.
Teams are generally smart to trade down in the draft, but this is a year in which they should be more aggressive in trying to trade down than ever. If a team is less confident that any one pick is likely to deliver a starting-caliber talent, the best chance of finding a starter is to amass multiple selections. Given the uncertainty with each individual pick, having more selections also gives teams a better chance of coming away with multiple starters than those same picks would in a typical season.
The Vikings are already in a good position to capitalize on this unique year, at least in the later rounds; they already have nine picks in rounds 3 through 7 and are projected to add two more when compensatory selections are announced. But the philosophy certainly applies to the first round as well. If another team is confident in moving up to get a player at 14, the Vikings should feel comfortable moving back and having two or three shots at landing a quality starter instead.
The Vikings need to get back into the second round
One of the main arguments for trading down from 14 is simple: the Vikings need to find a way to get back into the second round. They famously traded their second-rounder — which became the 45th overall pick — to the Jaguars for six games of Yannick Ngakoue. If they stay put this year, they'll have to wait a long time between their first and second pick, which is currently No. 78 overall.
Would Minnesota be able to pick up a second-rounder in a move down from 14? Maybe, if they trade with one of the teams selecting towards the end of the first. Trading 14 to the Browns for 26 and 59 is a fair deal based on the draft trade value chart. Other playoff teams like the Steelers, Ravens, Bills, or Saints could be interested in surrendering their second-rounder to move up for someone they covet; teams frequently give up more than they should while trading up. Even if they only land additional picks in the third round or Day 3 in a move down from 14, the Vikings could potentially package those to move up into the second (which admittedly contradicts the first section of this article to some degree, but could still work out).
Spielman could also balance a deal by sending 14 and a Day 3 pick for a mid-to-late first and a second. A team like Washington, the Colts, or the Bears may be willing to give up their second-rounder to jump the Patriots (who pick 15th) for Mac Jones.
Why is the second round so important for the Vikings? Just look at who they've taken in that round over the past six drafts: Ezra Cleveland, Irv Smith Jr., Brian O'Neill, Dalvin Cook, Mackensie Alexander, and Eric Kendricks. Going back even further, players like Kyle Rudolph, Phil Loadholt, Sidney Rice, and E.J. Henderson were all second-rounders. In an uncertain draft class, there's a good chance second-round picks end up playing like first-rounders. Last year's second-rounders include Tee Higgins, Jonathan Taylor, Antoine Winfield Jr., Chase Claypool, Jaylon Johnson, and Jeremy Chinn. Taking two players in the 18-64 range is probably more valuable for a team like the Vikings than landing one guy at 14 and waiting until the third round to pick again.
This draft has significant depth at some of the Vikings' top positions of need
Lastly, this year's draft sets up perfectly for a trade down because there is impressive depth at some of Minnesota's top positions of need. And given that they have plenty of needs — EDGE, DT, OL, CB, S, WR, etc — trading down would allow them to address multiple of them instead of dumping their eggs into one basket.
Take the EDGE position, for example. Instead of taking Gregory Rousseau or Kwity Paye at 14, why not trade down and grab Azeez Ojulari or Jaelan Phillips instead, while also adding extra picks? It works for the offensive line, too. Instead of taking Christian Darrisaw at 14, how about trading down and grabbing someone like Samuel Cosmi or Alijah Vera-Tucker? There are no safeties worth taking at 14, but Trevon Moehrig could be a great pick late in the first. This draft has good depth at EDGE, OT, G, CB, and WR. There are starters at all of those positions to be found on Day 2. DT doesn't have much depth, but you could get Daviyon Nixon or Levi Onwuzurike in the second round instead of taking Christian Barmore at 14.
The way this year's draft is set up, I would be a bit surprised if Spielman and the Vikings actually make a pick at 14. The uncertainty of the prospects makes moving down smarter than ever, there's good depth of starter-caliber players in the second and third round, and the Vikings have a major gap between their first and second selections that they'd presumably like to shorten.
I think the chances of Minnesota trading back are better than 50 percent — and it's a move that I'm entirely in favor of.
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