Vikings-Bears Preview: Chicago Brings Dangerous Running Game to Minnesota
The NFL is a pass-first league. It's been that way for a while. Running the football is still important, but the league's best offenses are driven by elite quarterback play and explosive passing attacks. These days, everyone's aware that throwing the ball is much more efficient and valuable than running it.
Everyone except the Chicago Bears.
Through four games, the offensive numbers are truly staggering for the Bears (2-2), who play the Vikings (3-1) at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday. The big one is this: they have completed just 34 passes so far this season. That's the fewest completions a team has had in the first four games of a season in the last 40 years. The team that ranks 31st in pass completions this year, the Atlanta Falcons, has 57 of them. 11 teams, including the Vikings, have at least 100 completions. There have been five instances this season where a team has completed more than 34 passes in a single game.
It was understandable when second-year quarterback Justin Fields completed just eight passes in a heavy rainstorm in the opener, a game the Bears actually won. But then he completed seven passes against the Packers the following week. And eight passes in a victory over the Texans in Week 3. Chicago aired it out in their loss to the Giants last week, setting season highs with...11 completions and 22 pass attempts.
The Bears have 390 total passing yards, fewer than 100 per game. That's the lowest mark in the league by a lot. Fields, who had an abysmal rookie year, hasn't thrown a touchdown pass since Week 1, when he had two of them. He's turned the ball over five times (four interceptions and a fumble) and has been sacked 16 times. The Bears rank dead last in passing DVOA.
You get the idea. This has been a historically inept passing game so far.
The only way you can survive that — and manage to win a couple games like the Bears have — is if your running game and defense are strong. The Bears at least have the first part down. They've run the ball 62 percent of the time so far, easily the highest percentage in the league. But even with such a one-dimensional offense, they rank fourth in the league at 5.2 yards per carry and third in the league with 177.3 rushing yards per game. The efficiency metrics are solid, as the Bears are 11th in rushing DVOA and 13th in EPA per rush.
"I think they’ve got a real diverse run scheme where there’s a lot of different variations that you’ve got to be prepared for," said Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell.
No. 1 running back David Montgomery is injured and might not play on Sunday, but backup Khalil Herbert racked up 169 yards and 2 touchdowns on 22 touches in Chicago's Week 3 win over the Texans. The Bears ran for 281 yards as a team in that game, the highest total in the NFL this season. Fields is a very capable runner from the quarterback position, having picked up 99 yards on 15 carries over the past two weeks.
"He’s that dual threat, and he has that working for him," said Vikings defensive coordinator Ed Donatell. "He’s been very effective with his legs, and he can extend the plays. You’ve gotta defend the first play and you’ve got to defend the second play that’s coming. Those are unscouted, and they’re running around, and he’s real good at that part of the game. We think he’s a good deep-ball thrower. There’s no question about it. We haven’t seen his best. We have to prepare for his best."
This will be an interesting test for Donatell's defense, which has struggled to stop the run so far this season. What kind of adjustments will they make against a team that is so run-oriented?
Fields, the No. 11 pick in the 2021 draft, was a highly-touted dual threat prospect coming out of Ohio State. He has struggled mightily in his first two NFL seasons, but the Bears also haven't put much talent around him on the offensive line or at the skill positions. That makes it somewhat difficult to evaluate how he's developing. If he's given time, he has the arm strength to — at least in theory — make some big-time throws. It just hasn't happened very often in his young NFL career.
Defensively, the Bears are solid, which you'd expect from a team with a defensive-minded head coach in Matt Eberflus. They rank 14th in EPA allowed per play, 15th in defensive DVOA, and 11th in scoring defense. But outside of Week 2 against Aaron Rodgers, the quarterbacks they've faced are Trey Lance, Davis Mills, and Daniel Jones. That helps. The run defense has also been gashed at times.
These aren't the same Bears that have given the Vikings plenty of trouble in recent years. Akiem Hicks and Khalil Mack, who always seemed to play well against the Vikings, are both gone. There are still a few playmakers on the Bears' defense — DE Robert Quinn, LB Roquan Smith, S Eddie Jackson (3 INTs) — but overall, it's a young, inexperienced unit. Chicago might also be without top cornerback Jaylon Johnson due to injury.
Despite their 2-2 record, make no mistake: the Bears are one of the worst teams in the league. New general manager Ryan Poles tore down the roster this offseason and went into rebuild mode. Their goals this season are to evaluate Fields and other young players and to end up with a top pick in the draft.
There's no reason why the Vikings should have trouble with this Bears team, especially at home. This should be a blowout victory for Minnesota, and if it isn't, it'll be awfully concerning.
The Vikings know they can't take any NFL team lightly. But this Bears team has a struggling young quarterback, a poor offensive line, no-name wide receivers, and a merely decent defense. If the Vikings can avoid getting gashed by the Bears' running game, this should be a good opportunity for them to move to 4-1 and complete a home sweep of the NFC North.
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