Vikings-Bears Preview: Minnesota Heads to Soldier Field For Another Must-Win Game
The Vikings exercised some of their Soldier Field demons a year ago, pulling off a 19-13 win in a place where they had lost 16 of their previous 19 games. To be fair, they were just 2-4 in Chicago under Mike Zimmer before last season's victory brought them closer to .500, but it was still a rare victory at a stadium that has given them major problems, particularly in primetime.
One year later, they need to find a way to do it again to keep their playoff hopes alive. This is, functionally, a must-win game for the 6-7 Vikings, who likely have to go 3-1 or 4-0 down the stretch to sneak into a wild card spot. With games against the red-hot Rams and Packers (at Lambeau Field) sandwiched between two matchups with the 4-9 Bears, they can't afford to lose either Chicago game.
As seems to be the case every year, this is a primetime matchup. It's a Monday night game, which offers Kirk Cousins an opportunity to get a winning streak going on day of the week that has been the cause of a lot of frustration throughout his career. Cousins got off the Monday night schneid last year in Chicago, throwing two touchdowns to Adam Thielen to end his widely-publicized 0-9 record on MNF.
Things won't be easy for the Vikings — not that they ever have been this season. After holding Nick Foles and the Bears to just six offensive points in their last meeting at Soldier Field, they'll have to contend with the much more dangerous Justin Fields this time around. Chicago also boasts an impressive running game and a very explosive special teams unit, and led the Packers in Green Bay for 35 minutes of football last week.
Still, there's a reason why the Vikings are six-point road favorites in this game. The Bears have lost seven of their last eight, with the lone win being a two-point victory over the Lions. Fields has gone through the usual inconsistency rookie quarterbacks deal with. The defense has been mostly abysmal this season. And Chicago is rather shorthanded right now, with Khalil Mack and Danny Trevathan on IR, Jason Peters banged up, and Jaylon Johnson, Eddie Jackson, Allen Robinson, and several coaches currently on the COVID list.
Let's run through a few keys to victory for the Vikings.
Get after Fields
The Bears' rookie quarterback has shown some serious flashes of potential this season, making things happen on the ground and delivering some big-time throws. His legs are a dangerous weapon; Fields has run for 19 first downs and a pair of scores this season. He's got all the arm talent to eventually develop into a great QB.
"Super talented young quarterback," Patrick Peterson said. "Has great arm strength. Can make all the throws. I saw a play he made yesterday on film — I can’t remember who they were playing — but he was rolling out to his right and he threw about 25 yards down the field into a tight window to a receiver on the sideline. I thought that was a pretty impressive throw that he made in that game. Mobile. He has all the tools that he needs to be successful. Now it’s just going to come along with time, game experience, him getting more comfortable in the lineup with the guys and his teammates. I think the sky can be the limit for him because everything he’s shown so far, it shows a lot of promise."
With that said, the reality is that Fields has a long ways to go in his development. He's 2-7 as a starter, has an 8-14 touchdown-to-turnover ratio, and has been sacked at a higher rate than any other QB in the NFL. While his legs and aggressiveness can be weapons, they can also get him in trouble. The Vikings, who lead the league in sacks, should be able to make things difficult on Fields.
"Just making it dirty for him," Peterson said. "Giving him different post and pre-snap reads, giving him different looks. And I think that’s the key for young quarterbacks. Just try to make it as dirty as possible for him because obviously you don’t see as many fire zones in college football, you don’t see many zone pressures on the college level ... I think with him being a rookie quarterback, we have to make those windows dirty for him, try to find ways to continue to create pressure, force him to make those unorthodox throws he made Sunday night against Green Bay – he had a couple throws literally off his feet – just try to make it as tough as possible for him."
With Zimmer leading the way, the Vikings have been able to generate consistent pressure without their top two defensive ends. Armon Watts and Sheldon Richardson have been playing well up front, and the trio of Eric Kendricks, Anthony Barr, and Harrison Smith have been in this system for so long that they're excellent at creating confusion for the opposing offense.
A big key for the Vikings will be stopping the run — both from talented RB David Montgomery and Fields, whether on designed runs or scrambles. If they can force Fields to beat them through the air, there should be opportunities for sacks and takeaways.
Keep leaning on the offensive stars
It's looking unlikely that Adam Thielen will play in this game, but the Vikings can still lean on their two healthy stars on offense: Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook. Jefferson has proven to be impossible to cover and will be looking for a bounce-back game after failing to come down with a few contested-catch opportunities last time out against the Steelers. He put up an 8/135 line in his Soldier Field debut last season, but didn't get into the end zone.
Cook is coming off one of the best games of his life, with 222 yards from scrimmage in the win over Pittsburgh. He's had trouble getting going against the Bears for much of his career, with players like Akiem Hicks and Roquan Smith providing him trouble. But the Bears being without Goldman and Trevathan is good news for Cook, as is the potential return of Christian Darrisaw at left tackle. The Vikings' offensive line has been playing well of late, with the exception of Oli Udoh.
"You give me the ball, we're going to be good," Cook said.
In K.J. Osborn and Tyler Conklin, Kirk Cousins has some solid secondary weapons at his disposal as well. Rookies Kene Nwangwu and Ihmir Smith-Marsette may also see some action. It'll all come down to how well Cousins plays, but this Bears defense isn't nearly as scary as it has been in years past. The Vikings need to put up some points early and then keep their foot on the gas.
Win the special teams battle
An underrated storyline for this game is that the Vikings and Bears boast some of the best special teams units in football. The Bears rank third in special teams DVOA, with the Vikings not far behind at sixth.
Minnesota's turnaround this season in that phase has been awfully impressive considering how horrible they were a year ago. They're doing so much better in the field position game, as the coverage units have been great and they've found a dynamic returner duo in Nwangwu and Dede Westbrook.
But with Westbrook and top gunner Dan Chisena on the COVID list, other guys will have to step up. The Bears are unlikely to give Nwangwu many opportunities for returns. Finding a spark in the return game would be big, and they need Greg Joseph to make his kicks.
Chicago's special teams start with Jakeem Grant, the lightning-quick returner who recorded the first punt return touchdown of the season last week in Green Bay with a 97-yard beauty. He returns both punts and kickoffs and has six touchdowns in the last four seasons. The Bears also are stout in coverage and have gotten some reliable kicking from Cairo Santos.
"I think Chicago, their strength is special teams," Vikings coordinator Ryan Ficken said. "I mean, they’ve got really dynamic returners, but they’ve got a great group of core guys. And they play fast, and they play with a lot of confidence. So we’ve gotta go ahead and match that, too. I think our guys have a lot of confidence, as well, so it’ll be a great matchup."
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