Vikings-Browns Preview: Cleveland's Loaded Roster Presents Big Challenge for Minnesota
Coming off a strong performance against the Seahawks in their first victory of the season, the Vikings face a tougher task this week when one of the deepest rosters in the NFL comes to Minneapolis. The Browns are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, have a great head coach in longtime Vikings assistant Kevin Stefanski, and could be undefeated this year if not for a couple late mistakes against the Chiefs in Week 1.
It's safe to say this is another big one at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings need to avoid a 1-3 start if they want to keep pace with the Packers in the NFC North. The Browns want to get to 3-1 to remain among the leaders in the AFC North. Both teams are playing at high level of late, and this projects as a tightly-contested, high-scoring game that could easily come down to the final play.
Let's take a deeper look at some of the top storylines and matchups to watch on Sunday.
Kevin Stefanski makes his return to Minnesota
Stefanski, one of the rising stars in the NFL's coaching ranks, got his first job in the league as an assistant to Brad Childress back in 2006, when he was just 24 years old. He would go on to spend the next 14 seasons in Minnesota, holding six different titles during that span.
In 2019, Stefanski had a highly successful season as the Vikings' offensive coordinator, working alongside offensive advisor Gary Kubiak and quarterbacks coach Klint Kubiak, among others. It's no secret that Vikings ownership was very fond of Stefanski and would've hired him as the team's next head coach had they moved on from Mike Zimmer following that season. But the Vikings made the playoffs, beat the Saints in the wild card round, and that was enough for Zimmer to keep his job.
Stefanski was hired by the Browns, which already looks like one of the best moves that franchise has made in decades. Inheriting a team with plenty of talent but no winning seasons since 2007, Stefanski led the Browns to an 11-5 record and came just shy of reaching the AFC Championship Game. He was named the AP Coach of the Year for his efforts.
The reunion has been a big talking point all week, but both sides have made it clear that they're focusing on the players on the field and what they need to do to win this football game.
"Got a lot of respect for Kevin," Klint Kubiak said. "I'm close with him, but just want to make this week as much about our guys as we can. It’ll be good to see him, but it’s the players, it’s our guys going out and battling. There’s so many things I could say positive about Kevin, and what he’s done for me professionally and as a friend. But come Sunday, we’re just focused on our own teams."
Even though that may be true, you know Stefanski, Zimmer, and Kubiak will be fired up for this one. The familiarity between both sides makes for an interesting dynamic. The Vikings know what Stefanski wants to do offensively, but he also knows Zimmer's defensive schemes. Both teams run similar offenses that want to run the football and hit big plays in the passing game. It'll come down to the wrinkles added by each coaching staff and how well their players can execute the gameplan.
Can the Vikings' slow the Browns' dominant rushing attack?
Cleveland's offense is all about the running game. Behind an elite offensive line and the best running back duo in the NFL, the Browns rank second in rushing yards per game, first in rushing DVOA, and first in rushing EPA per play. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are both averaging over 5.5 yards per carry and are among PFF's top four highest-graded RBs.
Only the Saints have the run the ball more frequently than the Browns this year, who hand it off on over 53 percent of their offensive plays. Cleveland mixes things up schematically, utilizing both zone runs (which is what the Vikings do) and gap schemes.
That's going to be a big test for a Vikings run defense that has been underwhelming so far against players like Joe Mixon and Chris Carson. Some key injuries to watch: Vikings linebacker Anthony Barr and nose tackle Michael Pierce are questionable. Barr making his season debut would help the run D, but losing Pierce would hurt it. Browns offensive linemen J.C. Tretter and Jedrick Wills Jr. are questionable but expected to play.
Chubb is the 1A in this backfield, averaging 17 touches to Hunt's 13. He's their main option on early downs and possesses incredible vision, quickness, and physicality. Chubb had a 1,500-yard season the last time he played all 16 games and has ran for at least 80 yards in all three games this year. Hunt, meanwhile, is a similarly dynamic runner who the Browns use heavily as a receiver out of the backfield on passing downs. Because Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. have missed games this year, Hunt is actually Cleveland's leading receiver. (Landry is out this week, but Beckham will play).
"They both are physical runners," said Vikings co-defensive coordinator Adam Zimmer. "They both will take it to the perimeter, good vision, good balance. It’s hard to bring one of those guys down with just one guy, so we’re emphasizing we’ve got to have 11 hats on the ball every play and really emphasize don’t let these guys push the pile forward on us."
Having both Barr and Pierce would be huge, but regardless, this will be a tough task for Eric Kendricks, Dalvin Tomlinson, and the rest of the Vikings' defense.
"I'm excited," said Kendricks, who is second in the NFL in tackles through three weeks. "I've wanted to play these boys for a minute now, so let's do it."
The Vikings can't let Myles Garrett dominate
For the second time in three weeks, the Vikings are facing an elite pass-rusher coming off an absurdly dominant game. In Week 2, they held the Cardinals' Chandler Jones to three pressures and no sacks one week after his five-sack game. Now they get the Browns' Myles Garrett, who had 4.5 of Cleveland's nine sacks against Justin Fields and the outmatched Bears last week.
With all due respect to Danielle Hunter, Jones, T.J. Watt, the Bosas, and others, Garrett is probably the best edge rusher in the league right now. One of three former No. 1 overall picks on the Browns' roster, Garrett is a freakish athlete who can win off the edge, on the interior, and against double teams. The Vikings are going to have to give Rashod Hill plenty of help, but they also have to be aware of Jadeveon Clowney on the other side.
"We’re not going to be able to block them single all day," Mike Zimmer said. "We’ll have to give them some help at times, but we’ve done a good job in the last couple of weeks, so we’re hopeful that we can. It will be a good test for our guys."
The keys for the Vikings avoiding sacks remain the same. If they can get the run game going and Kirk Cousins can get the ball out quickly, it'll be hard for Garrett to wreak havoc.
More keys to victory for the Vikings
- Force Baker Mayfield into some mistakes. If the Vikings can put pressure on Mayfield — not an easy thing to do with the talent of his offensive line — they should be able force him into some tough throws. He'll hold onto the ball and take some sacks, and he's got a bit of a "gunslinger" mentality in the sense that he'll attempt some difficult throws into tight windows. The Browns like to get Mayfield out of the pocket on play-action boots, and Beckham is still a dangerous No. 1 receiver. But although big plays will be a risk, Patrick Peterson, Harrison Smith, and the rest of the Minnesota secondary will have a chance to come away with some takeaways in this one, which could be huge.
- Kirk Cousins needs to keep rolling. Cousins is off to an incredible start to the season, throwing for over 300 yards per game with eight touchdowns and no turnovers. If he continues making good decisions and delivering the ball accurately in this game, the Vikings will at least be in it until the end. The Browns have talent in their secondary, but stud rookie corner Greg Newsome is out. Expect Cousins to go after his replacement, Greedy Williams, who hasn't played more than a handful of snaps since 2019 due to injury. Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn, and Tyler Conklin should all get opportunities in the passing game. It'll be interesting to see if the Vikings dial up more play-action passes or deep shots this week, since they haven't done a ton of that so far this season.
- Use both running backs. Dalvin Cook is expected to return to action this week after missing the Seahawks game with an ankle injury, but he's unlikely to be 100 percent. The Vikings should take a page out of the Browns' book and give Alexander Mattison ten touches or so to keep Cook fresh and provide a different look to Cleveland's defense. Getting the running game going will be huge for both teams.
Prediction
Vikings 34, Browns 28
This might be the best game in the league in Week 4. Both teams are immensely talented and have several All-Pro caliber players who can take over. But with the way Kirk Cousins and the Vikings' offense are playing right now, I'm not picking against them at U.S. Bank Stadium against just about anybody. I think the Vikings, once again backed by their home-field advantage, win a close one.
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