Vikings Playoff Scenarios Entering The Season's Final Two Weeks
The Vikings held up their end of the bargain on Sunday, rolling to a blowout victory over the Chargers behind seven takeaways from their defense. That was all they could control in their pursuit of a playoff spot, a division title, and the best possible seeding for the postseason.
Around the league, there was some good news and some bad news. The biggest piece of good news was that as the Vikings were routing one team from Los Angeles, the Cowboys were doing the same thing to the other. They throttled the Rams 44-21, making it very difficult – though not impossible – for the Rams to catch the Vikings for the NFC's final wild card spot.
Heading into the final two weeks of the season, the only possible way for the Vikings to miss the playoffs would be for them to lose out (they face the Packers and Bears at home, where they have yet to lose a game), and for the Rams to win out (at the 49ers, home versus the Cardinals). There will be four chances for the Vikings to clinch a spot, beginning with a Rams loss in San Francisco on Saturday night.
Fivethirtyeight puts Minnesota's chances of securing a playoff berth at 97 percent.
The bad news was that with the Packers' 21-13 win over the Bears, the Vikings' dreams of an NFC North title are all but shot. Unfortunately, due to the division record tiebreaker, the upcoming Vikings-Packers clash on Monday Night Football isn't a winner-take-all for the division. If the Vikings win, they'd still need to beat the Bears in Week 17 and have the Packers lose to the Lions.
The Lions are 3-10-1 and are down their top two quarterbacks. Entering that game against the Packers, they will likely have lost eight in a row and 11 of 12. It would take a remarkable collapse by Green Bay to lose that game.
What that means is the Vikings are almost certainly locked into a wild-card spot. But they're not locked into the sixth seed.
The other, less obvious good news for the Vikings from Sunday's NFL action was that the Falcons pulled off a last-second stunner against the 49ers. At 11-3 (and 3-3 in their last six), the Niners are just a game ahead of the Vikings. If the Vikings win out and San Francisco loses to the Seahawks in Seattle in Week 17, the Vikings would leap them for the fifth seed because they'd have the common opponents tiebreaker. In that scenario, the Vikings would be 3-2 against the Redskins, Packers, Falcons, and Seahawks, while the Niners would be 2-3.
The 49ers would have to lose specifically to the Seahawks for that to happen. If they lost to the Rams on Saturday but then beat Seattle, they'd be tied with the Vikings in common games and would keep the fifth seed based on strength of victory.
The fifth seed means a trip to play the Cowboys or Eagles, neither of which will be better than 9-7. The Vikings have already beaten both teams this season, including a road win over the Cowboys.
If the Vikings remain in the sixth seed, they would likely travel to Green Bay or New Orleans during wild card weekend. If they beat the Packers this week, a rematch at Lambeau Field two weeks later would become a serious possibility. A loss would likely mean a trip to New Orleans, though Seattle and San Francisco would remain possibilities depending on the outcomes of their games.
