Vikings-Saints Predictions, Picks: Who Wins on Christmas Day?
Merry Christmas to all those who celebrate the holiday. Enjoy it, but make sure to carve out time in the afternoon for some football.
The Vikings are in New Orleans to take on the Saints (3:30 p.m. central time, FOX) in a rare Friday afternoon NFL game today. And even though Minnesota's playoff dreams all but died last Sunday against the Bears, they're not mathematically out of it yet. With a win over Saints, the Vikings can keep their faint hopes alive and create some positive momentum heading into their regular season finale next week in Detroit. It would also be Minnesota's fourth win over the Saints in five tries over the past four seasons, a series that includes two thrilling playoff victories.
Postseason implications aside, there are plenty of interesting storylines from a Vikings perspective. What will Justin Jefferson, Irv Smith Jr., and Cameron Dantzler do in their return to their home state of Louisiana? Can Jefferson make a statement in the offensive rookie of the year race and maybe even break Randy Moss's franchise record for rookie receiving yards (he needs 132 more)? Does the Vikings' depleted linebacker corps have any shot at stopping Alvin Kamara?
For the Saints, this game is all about getting revenge for last season's playoff loss and staying alive in the hunt for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
So who gets the job done? Spoiler alert: most people are riding with the Saints as seven-point home favorites. Let's start with my prediction and then see what the national experts think.
Will's pick: Saints 32, Vikings 23
I was tempted to pick the Vikings here, because it would be very on-brand for them to pick up a difficult, impressive win right after being more or less eliminated from playoff contention. Plus, they seem to always find a way to beat the Saints in recent years, 2018 aside. I just don't think it'll happen this time. With Eric Kendricks, Jalyn Holmes, Todd Davis, and Troy Dye all out, the Vikings' woeful front seven will be relying on several practice squad-type players. That's bad news against Drew Brees, Kamara, and Latavius Murray. Plus, Trey Hendrickson and Cam Jordan should wreak havoc on Kirk Cousins [update: Hendrickson is out with an injury]. The Vikings will hang around for a while, but the Saints will pull away late. Then again, what do I know?
Last week's pick: Vikings 22, Bears 21. Season record: 6-8 (Just like the team itself!)
Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: Saints 27, Vikings 21
We are likely hitting the last few games of Drew Brees' career, a reality that has everyone around this Saints team tense coming off a two-game losing streak. Last week's version of Brees wasn't better than Taysom Hill, but the rust may come off against a pass rush-poor Vikings team. More importantly for this Christmas Day revenge game, Kirk Cousins' roller-coaster season looks primed to crash against a strong Saints front.
Mike Florio, PFT: Saints 27, Vikings 23
The Saints won't have to worry about losing to the Vikings in this year's playoffs. The Saints will have to worry about losing to the Vikings on Christmas Day.
Michael David Smith, PFT: Saints 31, Vikings 17
The NFL's Christmas Day offering features a Vikings team that doesn't have much left to play for against a Saints team that's still fighting for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. I don't see this one being close.
Bleacher Report staff: Saints 31, Vikings 20
I don't feel good about Minnesota's morale following a season-destroying loss to the Chicago Bears. Now they have to go up against the No. 2-rated D in terms of DVOA. When the Saints suffered a rare late-season loss last December, they bounced back with a 34-7 blowout over the Indianapolis Colts. This might have a similar feel.
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Bears 28, Vikings 24
The Saints have lost two straight games, but Drew Brees looked more like himself in the second half against the Chiefs. That will carry over here against a Vikings defense that doesn't rush the passer. Look for the Saints defense to get back on track as well. The Saints lost to the Vikings at home in the playoffs last year, but that won't be the case in this one. Saints take it.
Mark Craig, Minneapolis Star Tribune: Saints 34, Vikings 24
It's highly unlikely that Drew Brees will start as horribly as he did last week, when he returned from a month off because of 11 broken ribs and a punctured lung. Against the Chiefs, he started 0-for-6 with an interception and four straight three-and-outs. And yet he and the Saints still only lost by a field goal to the Chiefs. The Vikings, whose playoff chances are infinitesimal, won't have enough steam left in the engine to fend off a Saints team that's still fighting for a division title and the NFC's top seed.
Sam Farmer, LA Times: Vikings 28, Bears 24
The Bears have scored 30 and 36 in consecutive weeks, so that makes this interesting. But you never know which Mitch Trubisky you’re going to get. That said, the Vikings are better all the way around.
Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Saints 30, Vikings 20
The Vikings have had the Saints' number in two of the past three NFC playoffs. The Saints can forget about worrying about that by eliminating the Vikings from the playoffs and finally winning a fourth straight NFC South title at the same time. After losing to the Eagles and Chiefs in back-to-back weeks, look for the Saints to lock in while they're home for the holiday. Their run defense will rebound to contain Dalvin Cook before the pass defense tees off on Kirk Cousins. Drew Brees will pick apart the Vikings' young secondary with a stronger second game back.
If Vikings fans are looking for optimism, two ESPN writers are picking the upset.
Dan Graziano: I was there the last time these teams played in the Superdome, and Minnesota won it to advance in last season's playoffs. The Saints are the better team, but Drew Brees looked (understandably) rusty Sunday, he's playing on a short week and Minnesota is the more desperate team and has reason to believe it can beat the Saints in New Orleans. A Christmas shocker in the Bayou.
Jeremy Fowler: Minnesota is capable of beating or losing to anyone. Just ask the Packers, who got smacked by the Vikings' running game in Week 8. The Saints' passing game still looks a little shaky without Michael Thomas, and the Vikings have a respectable minus-22 point differential in five games against teams with 10 or more wins. Plus, Minnesota has played with too much pride under Mike Zimmer over the years to fall to 6-9.
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