Vikings Schedule Look-Ahead: Difficult Post-Bye Slate Heightens Importance of Beating Panthers
I touted last week's game against the Lions as a must-win to keep the Vikings' season alive because that's exactly what it was. Not only would dropping to 1-4 in any context have been close to a death sentence, but losing to a winless Lions team that represents one of the only "gimmes" on a tough schedule would've been an indication that this Minnesota team wasn't anywhere close to sniffing the playoffs.
Well, the Vikings won. Barely.
They probably deserved to lose that game because of the absurdly conservative way both Mike Zimmer and Klint Kubiak approached it, but Kirk Cousins and Greg Joseph bailed them out in the final seconds. The pessimistic — and perhaps realistic — view is that it was a performance that suggests it will take a miracle for the Vikings to make a run at the postseason this year, given the way they played and the difficulty of their remaining schedule.
The optimistic view is that they finally got a close game to go their way, and can learn from it and play much better going forwards.
"I think there was a sense of relief that we won the game," Zimmer told Paul Allen this week. "I do think, in the locker room after the game, there was a sense of 'we got one today, we got a long way to go, we need to get back to work.' I do feel like sometimes you gotta catch a break to get on a roll, and we caught a break last week."
Sometimes you play a fantastic game on the road against the Cardinals — the NFL's lone unbeaten team through five weeks — and come up short on a missed chip-shot field goal. Sometimes you play an awful game against a winless team at home and just manage to survive. In this league, it's all about wins and losses.
This week, the Vikings have another virtual must-win game, this time on the road against a Panthers team that started 3-0 before dropping their last two. Carolina's defense is excellent, but Sam Darnold has regressed in a big way recently and has one of the NFL's worst offensive lines in front of him. Christian McCaffrey might not be back yet, either. If the Vikings' defense can continue to play at a high level and the offense can do enough, this is a very winnable game.
Again, this isn't a must-win simply because of the difference between being 3-3 and 2-4, although that's obviously big. It's a must-win because the Panthers are the worst team the Vikings are going to face until they play the Lions again in December.
Here's a look at Minnesota's remaining schedule, which is the NFL's ninth-toughest based on DVOA. For comparison, the Vikings currently rank 13th in DVOA despite their 2-3 record.
- Week 6: at Panthers (3-2, 17th in DVOA)
- BYE
- Week 8: vs. Cowboys (4-1, 2nd)
- Week 9: at Ravens (4-1, 8th)
- Week 10: at Chargers (4-1, 11th)
- Week 11: vs. Packers (4-1, 15th)
- Week 12: at 49ers (2-3, 10th)
- Week 13: at Lions (0-5, 27th)
- Week 14: vs. Steelers (2-3, 21st)
- Week 15: at Bears (3-2, 22nd)
- Week 16: vs. Rams (4-1, 5th)
- Week 17: at Packers (4-1, 15th)
- Week 18: vs. Bears (3-2, 22nd)
After this Panthers game and the bye week, the Vikings play four straight games against 4-1 teams with elite offenses. Going even 2-2 in that stretch will be awfully tough, although it's worth noting that the Vikings have one-score losses or victories against the Cardinals (3rd in DVOA), Browns (6th), and Seahawks (9th).
That's why getting to 3-3 this week is so huge. If you can manage to go 2-2 in that brutal four-game stretch, you're 5-5 heading into an easier four-game run.
Including the Rams game and the second Packers matchup, six of the Vikings' final 12 games come against legitimate Super Bowl contenders (the Packers' DVOA is still weighed down by their no-show in Week 1 against the Saints). If you don't trust DVOA, look at this way: the Vikings play the No. 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 teams in the The Athletic's latest power rankings, including two games against No. 7. Even a road game against the 49ers won't be easy. That heightens the importance of taking care of business in every single game that isn't against one of those teams, starting with this week against the Panthers.
Despite an uninspiring, nearly-disastrous performance against the Lions, this Vikings season isn't lost. If they can ever get the offense from the first 2.5 games and the defense from the last 2.5 games playing at the same time, this team has a chance to continue playing any team on the schedule close.
But if they want a realistic chance to make it through a gauntlet of a post-bye schedule with their playoff hopes intact, they need to find a way to win on Sunday against Carolina. When you dig an early 1-3 hole, it's all about surviving and advancing.
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