The Vikings' Best Chance to Beat the Seahawks is By Airing It Out on Early Downs
Dalvin Cook has been the best running back in the NFL this season. He leads the league in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, missed tackles forced, and countless other statistics. He's extraordinarily good at what he does. And yet, for the Vikings to give themselves the best chance at pulling off a major upset over the Seahawks on Sunday night, they need to utilize Cook a lot less frequently than they have over the past two weeks.
Wait, what?
Allow me to explain.
The Vikings and Seahawks have two completely different approaches on how to operate an offense in 2020. After years of prioritizing the running game, the Seahawks have abandoned that strategy and become one of the league's most pass-happy teams. They finally decided to #LetRussCook and the results have been spectacular. Russell Wilson is the MVP frontrunner through four weeks; he already has 16 touchdown passes and leads all quarterbacks in passer rating, yards per attempt, and completion percentage, among other things. Most importantly, the Seahawks are 4-0.
Meanwhile, the 1-3 Vikings are on the complete opposite end of the play-calling spectrum. Led by old-school coaches Mike Zimmer and Gary Kubiak, this is an offense that wants to run the football, be physical, and control the time of possession. Cook has carried the ball 49 times over the past two weeks, which is tops in the league by a decent margin (the Bengals' Joe Mixon is the only other player to have more than 40 carries in Weeks 3 and 4, with 42).
"It just goes to show the team that we’re on," Cook said of the differences in offensive philosophy. "It’s a physical team, a smart team and we know what coach Zim is trying to get done. He wants to play good defense, manage the clock and limit the other team’s possessions as much as he can. Being around a coach like that, you see the mindset that he’s in. It’s just fun with that type of mentality that coach Zim has."
Let's take a look at just how stark the difference is between these two offenses. The Athletic's Ben Baldwin keeps track of the rate at which teams pass the ball on first and second downs in neutral situations (when neither team has a win probability above 80 percent and the game isn't in the final two minutes of either half). The Seahawks are first at more than 60 percent, and the Vikings are dead last at just over 40 percent.
The key thing here is that this isn't a stylistic choice that works just as well either way. Analytics show that passing the ball is far more efficient that running it, which suggests that the Vikings – even though Cook is elite – are actively harming themselves by handing it off on early downs as frequently as they do.
Running the ball, even with someone like Cook, is less likely to generate a big play and is more likely to result in a short gain than passing the ball. Cook's 5.7 yards per carry is excellent, but it's still less than Kirk Cousins' 7.3 yards per dropback. That means running on first down increases the odds of setting up a second and long. Running on second and long is generally one of the worst things a team can do, considering it increases your odds of getting to third down and potentially facing third and long. The Seahawks run the ball on second and long (defined here as eight or more yards to go) less than any team in the league, while the Vikings do it at the eighth-highest rate, according to Baldwin's data.
If the Vikings want to keep pace with Wilson and the Seahawks in a game that projects as a potential shootout, they should be more aggressive with throwing the ball on early downs. Instead of predictably feeding Cook on first and second down, Kubiak should call plays that let Cousins drop back and find weapons like Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson – PFF's two highest-graded wide receivers in the NFL – for big gains.
That should really be their approach every week. It might surprise you to learn that the Vikings have the most efficient early-down passing offense in the league. They've hit a ton of big plays to Thielen and Jefferson on first and second down, particularly off of play-action. The Vikings are gaining just shy of 0.5 Expected Points Added per early-down dropback compared to -0.1 EPA on early-down runs.
Being aggressive through the air prior to third down makes even more sense than usual in this matchup against the Seahawks' defense. Partially due to game script, teams have thrown the ball a ton against Seattle and have had great success doing it; the Seahawks are allowing a league-worst 401 passing yards per game. With Jamal Adams still out due to injury, the Vikings should look to exploit a burnable secondary by testing it early and often. The Seahawks have an excellent run defense led by linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright and defensive tackles Poona Ford and Jarran Reed. They're surrendering just 75.8 rushing yards per game, third-fewest in the NFL.
Yardage totals don't tell the whole story, obviously. But the advanced metrics confirm that the Seahawks are much better at stopping the run, as they rank 6th against the run and 29th against the pass in Football Outsiders' DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average).
The problem with the offensive approach described in the earlier quote from Cook – running the ball, playing good defense, controlling time of possession – is that the Vikings aren't playing well at all on defense and now have the task of attempting to slow down an offensive juggernaut. The odds are quite high that Wilson is going to have a big day against the Vikings, who are starting two rookies at cornerback (Jeff Gladney and Cameron Dantzler will have their hands full with star receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett) and have struggled to generate much of a pass rush.
In order to keep pace, the Vikings need to be as efficient and explosive as possible when they have the ball. That means playing through Cousins, Thielen, and Jefferson, not Cook.
A common rebuttal to this argument is that you need to run the ball to set up Cousins' biggest strength: play-action. Kubiak said as much multiple times in his press conference on Thursday. "You've got to be running the ball good because if you're not you don't get people down in the box," he said. "If we're running the ball well it gives you a chance to push it down the field a little bit." Kubiak mentioned having to "sell" the run to create big pass plays.
However, there's no analytical evidence that says that running the ball effectively has any bearing on the success of play-action passing. In other words, teams don't actually need to establish the run in order for play-action to be successful.
I'm not saying the Vikings should abandon Cook and the running game entirely. Analytics aside, there's truth to the notion that defenses have to at least respect the possibility of a run in order for play-action to be as effective as possible. Cook isn't an ordinary running back, he's a dangerous playmaker who can make things happen with the ball in his hands. I'd like to see the Vikings get him more involved as a receiver, considering he has just seven catches for 40 yards in 2020 after averaging 3.8 catches and 37 receiving yards per game last season. He's an important weapon in short-yardage situations and the red zone.
There's also the fact that Cousins isn't Wilson or Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes. He's not the type of quarterback who can drop back 40 times and pick a defense apart, so having some offensive balance is important.
Still, in order for the Vikings to give themselves the best chance to shock the world on Sunday night and win their second straight game, they shouldn't hand the ball to Cook 20-25 times. Instead, they should take advantage of their two outstanding receivers and a shaky Seahawks secondary by being aggressive through the air on early downs. And they should do that from the very beginning of the game, instead of waiting until they're down multiple scores to go pass-heavy like they did in Week 1.
In reality, that's probably not going to happen. Zimmer and Kubiak are who they are, and they're going to stick to their guns. Maybe it'll work. Maybe Cook will have a huge game and the Vikings' defense will make some big plays.
But if that doesn't happen – if the Vikings find themselves in a bunch of third and longs on offense and end up getting blown out by Wilson and the Seahawks – you'll know what they did wrong.
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