Vikings-Steelers TNF Preview: Breaking Down a Critical Game For Two 'In The Hunt' Teams
I don't know exactly what's going to happen during this week's Thursday Night Football battle between the Minnesota Vikings (5-7) and Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5-1) at U.S. Bank Stadium, but I do know a few things: it's going to be dramatic, it's going to be weird, and it's probably going to come down to the final play.
The Vikings have played close games all year long, regardless of their opponent. This is a team that recently beat the 9-3 Packers and came a missed field goal away from beating the Cardinals — current owners of the NFL's best record at 10-2 — in their own stadium back in Week 2. This is also a team that is coming off a disastrous, embarrassing loss to the previously-winless Lions just a few days ago, after previously losing to Cooper Rush and Baker Mayfield. Minnesota leads the league with 11 games decided by eight points or fewer, with the lone exception coming way back in September.
The Steelers are no strangers to close games either. They're tied for second in the league with eight games decided by eight or less, including seven of their last eight contests. Their range of outcomes is equally wide, as they have wins over the Bills and Ravens mixed in with a blowout loss against the Bengals and a tie against the Lions.
So yeah, this is probably going to be a chaotic mess that winds up being decided at the very end.
Both teams really need this one, although the Vikings are the more desperate of the two. They're one game out of a wild card spot in the NFC and could stay alive in the race by getting to 6-7 with a winnable game against the Bears next up on their schedule. A loss would drop them to 5-8 and potentially get Mike Zimmer fired. The Steelers are sitting in the No. 8 spot in the AFC right now, right in the middle of a clump of 12 teams with 6-8 wins. A win on Thursday would be a big boost to their playoff chances, and they're still alive in the AFC North race too.
Despite having lost two in a row, the Vikings are three-point home favorites in this game. That's probably because the advanced metrics do not view the Steelers kindly. Pittsburgh ranks 23rd in DVOA (20th offense, 27th defense), well behind the 11th-ranked Vikings. The Steelers are also outside the top 20 in EPA per play on both sides of the ball. They haven't won a game by more than eight points all season, and haven't beaten a team by more than two points since October.
"It’s time to go bring the pain to somebody else," Justin Jefferson said. "Just show our frustration off of last game, us not getting that win and us not playing as good the first half. Just coming off that, trying to get the win and bouncing back."
Let's dive into two key questions that will go a long way towards determining the outcome of this game.
1. Can the Vikings' offensive line hold up against Pittsburgh's two game-wreckers?
The Steelers have long been known for their dominant 3-4 defenses, but the 2021 unit does not fall into that category. It ranks in the bottom 10 in DVOA against both the run and the pass, and prior to last week's win over Baltimore, they had given up 41 points in back-to-back games against the Chargers and Bengals.
Still, there are two players you absolutely need to know about and keep an eye on all night long on Thursday: edge rusher T.J. Watt and interior DL Cameron Heyward. That duo has the ability to punish the Vikings' shuffled-around offensive line and wreck the entire offensive gameplan by themselves. They're a big reason why the Steelers rank second in the NFL in three-and-outs forced.
Watt leads the NFL with a ridiculous 16 sacks in just ten games and is one of the frontrunners for Defensive Player of the Year. He has two games this season with at least three sacks, including last Sunday's 3.5-sack, 11-pressure masterpiece against the Ravens. He almost exclusively lines up on the left side of the defense, setting up a premiere matchup with Vikings RT Brian O'Neill. However, I wonder if the Steelers would consider giving him some reps on the other side to take advantage of either Oli Udoh or Rashod Hill — whichever one is playing LT with Christian Darrisaw missing another game.
“Number one, he’s smart," Zimmer said of Watt. "Great rusher. Quick off the line of scrimmage. Good power. And then I think he sees things really well. Most great players, they have really good vision, so they see a lot of different things. He fights through chips, understands where the protection’s going, things like that."
Heyward actually leads the Steelers in pressures with 43, although he's played nearly 150 more snaps than Watt (who has 40). One of the most dominant interior linemen in the league, Heyward has four sacks in the last four games and will be a major problem for the Vikings' interior trio of Ezra Cleveland, Garrett Bradbury, and Mason Cole.
If the Vikings' O-line can hold up moderately well against those two, there's no reason the offense can't put up points. Dalvin Cook should have room to run, while Justin Jefferson and K.J. Osborn (replacing Adam Thielen) have beatable cornerback matchups in Cameron Sutton and Ahkello Witherspoon. Kirk Cousins just needs a little time to throw before Watt and Heyward get there.
“Great respect for Pittsburgh’s pass rush, for who they have," Cousins said. "We understand that challenge, and we’ve got to work this week to be ready to go. It really takes everybody. It takes the line, but it takes tight ends and running backs, it takes myself getting rid of the ball or feeling the rush and moving, and it takes coaches and the plan and play calls. So there’s so many pieces that go into when you play a really strong pass rush, and that’s the challenge we have this week."
2. Can the Vikings' defense force some Big Ben turnovers and play well?
At 39 years old, Ben Roethlisberger is no longer the player he once was. He's still a decently accurate quarterback who understands the offense and is capable of moving the ball, but he's also had some major struggles this year. Roethlisberger's mobility is gone, his arm strength is lacking, and he makes a lot of questionable decisions with the football.
In fact, Big Ben leads the NFL with 21 "turnover-worthy plays," according to PFF. Those are plays that could've ended in an interception, whether they actually did or not, while excluding picks that aren't the QB's fault. Only rookie Zach Wilson has a higher TWP rate this season on pass attempts. Just watching last week's game, Roethlisberger had a ton of passes that were nearly intercepted off of tips or drops. The Vikings' defense, which ranks in the middle of the pack with 10 INTs this year, is going to have some opportunities to create takeaways.
The Vikings figure to struggle to get pressure on Roethlisberger without blitzing, given that they're without Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen. But blitzing Roethlisberger is dangerous because he gets the ball out so quickly.
"He’s really good with seeing the pressures and where the sight is and where the [hot reads] are and getting the ball out," Zimmer said. "Maybe he doesn’t run quite as much as he used to. He was really never a runner, but he’s a strong, physical guy to get on the ground. He still throws the deep ball great. Very smart and savvy with where he wants to go with the ball and gets them in the right play a ton of times. He does a lot of checking at the line of scrimmage, so hopefully our crowd will be nice and loud."
With the Vikings thin at defensive end, it might be up to the linebackers and secondary to make plays in this one. Getting Eric Kendricks, Anthony Barr, and Patrick Peterson back to join Harrison Smith and Xavier Woods helps a lot in that regard.
If the Vikings can't create some takeaways, they could struggle defensively. Najee Harris is an excellent, versatile running back, and Roethlisberger has an impressive trio of pass-catchers in Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and Pat Freiermuth.
Bonus
Last but not least, this game could easily come down to special teams. The Steelers have the most accurate kicker in the league this year in Chris Boswell, who is 24 of 25 on field goal attempts, including making all seven from 50+ yards. Strangely enough, Boswell has missed more extra points (2) than field goals. Oh, and don't sleep on the Jordan Berry revenge game. The veteran was signed by the Vikings after the Steelers cut him in favor of rookie Pressley Harvin III, but Berry has the superior net average this season.
Thanks for reading. Make sure to bookmark this site and check back daily for the latest Vikings news and analysis all season long. Also, follow me on Twitter and feel free to ask me any questions on there.
