What Does Kevin O'Connell's Arrival Mean For Kirk Cousins' Future With the Vikings?
Kevin O'Connell is still a week away from being officially signed and introduced as the new head coach of the Vikings, but the NFL rumor mill is already churning out reports about what his arrival in Minnesota means for the future of Kirk Cousins.
“Kevin O’Connell worked with Kirk Cousins in Washington [in 2017]," ESPN's Adam Schefter said on Sunday. "Kirk Cousins endorsed Kevin O’Connell for that job. One of the reasons Kevin [wanted] that job is because of Kirk Cousins. There’s a relationship. So that tells me that Minnesota and Kirk Cousins will figure out something, and maybe come up with a restructured contract that adds years on for Kirk Cousins and gives the Vikings salary cap relief this offseason to give them more money to spend on other players."
Schefter isn't the only one putting that sentiment out there.
"Soon-to-be Vikings [head coach] Kevin O'Connell conveyed a firm belief in Kirk Cousins during the interview process, I'm told," tweeted ESPN's Jeremy Fowler on Monday. "He's high on him. The front office must decide on Cousins' future due to his $45M cap hit, but many coaches interviewing for the job liked Cousins, O'Connell included."
Here's where I jump in to tell you that those comments shouldn't necessarily be taken at face value.
The two do have a relationship from their time together in 2017, when O'Connell was the quarterbacks coach and Cousins was in his final year as Washington's QB. It's entirely possible that O'Connell is a believer in Cousins who thinks he can build an offense that gets the most out of him and leads to a lot of wins. But that doesn't mean he hasn't seen some of the downsides of Cousins as well. According to The Athletic's Chad Graff and Jon Krawczynski, O'Connell "was able to offer a nuanced review of quarterback Kirk Cousins" during his interview. That implies an assessment of both his positives and his negatives.
Regardless of what O'Connell's true feelings on Cousins might be, there are two big things to keep in mind. One is that there could be other factors playing into those ESPN reporters getting that message out there. The other is that what ultimately happens with Cousins is going to be GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's decision, not O'Connell's.
Five Takeaways From the Vikings Choosing Kevin O'Connell as Their Head Coach
Even though the Super Bowl hasn't happened yet, the offseason is nearly in full swing already and we could see some major quarterback dominos start to fall before too long. Last year, the Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff trade was agreed upon more than a week before the Super Bowl. Carson Wentz was traded in mid-February. Discussions are already taking place this year.
It would never do the Vikings any good to publicly speak poorly about their QB. It's very possible that Schefter and Fowler's comments were influenced by the Vikings, who want to generate as much positive buzz about Cousins as possible to raise his trade value. A line like "many coaches interviewing for the job liked Cousins" seems to have that kind of thing written all over it. Big-time insiders — particularly someone like Schefter — are known for almost serving as P.R. for teams who want to spin things a certain way to the public.
Actions are what matter in the NFL, not words. Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury famously said Josh Rosen "is our guy" two months before drafting Kyler Murray and trading Rosen to Miami. Former Vikings GM Rick Spielman said the Vikings weren't going to trade Percy Harvin or Stefon Diggs, then traded them anyways. The Vikings don't want to seem like they're trying to move on from Cousins, because that decreases their leverage in trade negotiations with other franchises.
O'Connell will presumably have some input into what ends up happening with Cousins. You don't hire a guy with that level of familiarity with Cousins as your head coach and keep him out of the loop on such a huge decision. But at the end of the day, the choice is going to be made by Adofo-Mensah. He's the GM, so he's the one who has to assess every element of the roster, do his due diligence in exploring all of the possible options, and make tough decisions if he deems them necessary for the long-term future of the franchise.
This much is clear: something is going to happen with Cousins. It would be a stunner if he headed into next season with no changes to his contract, carrying a $45 million cap hit into the final year of his deal. If the Vikings don't trade him, you'd have to think they'll work out something to lower his 2022 cap hit. That could be another extension or perhaps a restructure that uses void years. It almost certainly isn't going to involve the business-savvy Cousins taking any sort of voluntary pay cut, so the onus is on the Vikings to figure out what makes the most sense on their end.
At this point, it could still easily go either way, as far as I see it.
Adofo-Mensah could decide to keep Cousins and see what O'Connell can do with an offense that is a couple interior offensive linemen away from being pretty complete at the non-QB positions. I'm not going to dive into the entire arguments for and against Cousins right now, but he's an accurate quarterback who puts up impressive statistics and gives your offense a solid floor and ceiling if he receives adequate pass protection. His production isn't worth $45 million, by any means, but it's palatable in the $25-35 million range.
Adofo-Mensah could also decide to pull the trigger on a trade if he feels good about the return. There are a ton of QB-needy teams out there, so that could drive the price up even if Cousins' contract isn't the easiest to move. That would prevent the Vikings and their new leadership from feeling tied to a QB with a .500 career record as a starter for the first few years of their tenures. O'Connell might like Cousins, but he also would likely embrace the opportunity to develop his own quarterback on a much more affordable rookie contract, even if that means rolling the dice and taking a step back in 2022.
It's going to be fascinating to see what happens. The main point is this: just because reports are coming out that O'Connell believes in Cousins, don't write his name down in pen as the Vikings' quarterback for this season just yet.
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