Do the Vikings Have a Top-10 Offense Heading Into 2023?

How you view the Vikings' 2022 offense depends on what metrics you look at. The surface stats say Kevin O'Connell's group was a top-ten unit; they ranked seventh in yards per game and eighth in points per game. Efficiency-wise, they weren't as strong, ranking 20th in offensive DVOA and 18th in EPA per play. Both of those figures were weighed down by one of the league's least efficient running games.

There are several reasons to believe the Vikings' offense will be better in 2023. The most obvious is that everyone should be more comfortable in year two of O'Connell's system, from Kirk Cousins to the offensive line to O'Connell himself as a play-caller. The two big additions are first-round wide receiver Jordan Addison — who projects as an immediate upgrade from the aging Adam Thielen — and superb blocking tight end Josh Oliver. Addison is obviously the flashier of those two additions, but don't discount the importance of Oliver's presence in making the Vikings' running game more productive on a down-to-down basis.

It remains likely that Dalvin Cook will eventually be traded or released, but that may be addition by subtraction considering Cook was one of the least effective running backs in the NFL last season. A committee of Alexander Mattison, Ty Chandler, and rookie DeWayne McBride, with improved blocking in front of them, could be more than enough to clear the very low bar of last season's rushing efficiency.

If the running game improves slightly, that can only help the Vikings' passing game continue to be explosive. Cousins is back for another year; this will be his first time operating under the same play-caller for a second consecutive season since he signed with the Vikings five years ago. Justin Jefferson has a very strong case as the best wide receiver in football, T.J. Hockenson was a perfect fit in the offense following last year's midseason trade, and the complementary pass-catchers — Addison, K.J. Osborn, Oliver — are strong as well. Addison, the 2021 Biletnikoff winner, is a natural route-runner who the Vikings expect to thrive against single coverage.

On the offensive line, the Vikings have an elite tackle duo in Christian Darrisaw and Brian O'Neill, but pass protection is a significant concern with the interior trio of Ezra Cleveland, Garrett Bradbury, and Ed Ingram. Minnesota is hoping Ingram takes a year two leap after leading the NFL in pressures allowed as a rookie.

Based on that context, one can talk themself into the Vikings having a top-ten offense. Then again, Cousins is probably somewhere in the 11-15 rank among quarterbacks, Addison is unproven in the NFL, and questions remain about the running game and interior pass blocking. So there's a case to be made for skepticism about the Vikings' offense, too.

Two recent national analysts placed O'Connell's unit just outside of the top ten. Both Pro Football Network's Arif Hasan and Bleacher Report's Alex Ballentine have the Vikings at exactly 12th in their ranking of every team's offense.

Hasan:

Losing Adam Thielen hurts, but the model considers Jordan Addison an upgrade. The Vikings did not improve their pass protection, but they have an elite pair of tackles and a functional interior. Importantly, the combination of Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson should help the offense compete for a top-10 rank, even if they do end up losing Dalvin Cook.

Ballentine:

Barring any major moves from here until Week 1, the Vikings are mostly bringing back the same offense that was 18th in EPA but eighth in scoring. It was one of the biggest gulfs between the two metrics in the league last season.

Essentially, they'll be swapping out Irv Smith Jr. as their second tight end for Josh Oliver. The latter is a better fit. With T.J. Hockenson taking over as the primary pass-catching tight end, Oliver makes sense as a blocking specialist.

Replacing Adam Thielen with Jordan Addison gives them a little more juice. Thielen's production has declined in each of the last two seasons, and Addison is an explosive rookie receiver who could thrive right away across from Justin Jefferson.

The result is an offense that might only be marginally improved from last year's. They get some points for continuity, but it's hard to see them being much more than they were last season, and this ranking generally splits the difference between their scoring offense and EPA per play.

The Vikings' defense was one of the league's worst last season, and even though it will likely improve somewhat under new coordinator Brian Flores, the offense's efficiency will need to take a leap forward if this team is going to defend its NFC North crown.

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