Inside The Vikings

Halfway Into the 2022 Season, the Vikings Have All But Clinched the NFC North

It would take an incredible collapse for the Vikings to not host a playoff game in January.
Will Ragatz|
Halfway Into the 2022 Season, the Vikings Have All But Clinched the NFC North
Halfway Into the 2022 Season, the Vikings Have All But Clinched the NFC North

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Minnesota Vikings

We've reached the NFL's midway point — nine weeks into an 18-week schedule — and the Minnesota Vikings have basically wrapped up the NFC North. Wait, what?

That's right. The Vikings, who went 15-18 over the past two seasons and haven't won the division since 2017, have gotten off to an incredible 7-1 start under new head coach Kevin O'Connell, winning six games in a row by one score. 

Meanwhile, the Packers — who won 13 games and the division in each of the last three years — have fallen apart. They're 3-6 after losing five in a row, bottoming out with a 15-9 loss to the lowly Lions on Sunday. Justin Fields and the Bears have shown some improvement of late, but they're also 3-6 and traded away Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn before the deadline. The Lions are 2-6 after finally winning another game this past weekend.

The result is the Vikings being up 4.5 games over the Packers and Bears, which is one of the biggest division leads through nine weeks in recent memory. Only the 2011 49ers (5 games) and the 2007 Patriots (4.5) have had a division lead that big over the last 30 years, per NFL on CBS.

Even with nine games left to play, the Vikings have all but secured the NFC North title this season. FiveThirtyEight gives them a 98 percent change to win the division. Football Outsiders is at 96 percent (slightly lower since their DVOA metric still doesn't love the Vikings). Minnesota is -4000 to win the division according to BetOnline, an implied probability of 97.5 percent. No other team in the NFL has those kind of odds to win their division. 

The Vikings' magic number to secure the NFC North is five. That's the combination of Vikings victories and losses by the Packers/Bears/Lions (whichever one ends up in second place) that would clinch the division. If the Vikings go 5-4 the rest of the way, they'd be 12-5. Even if another team in the division wins out, they can't be better than 11-6.

But the Vikings don't even have to go 5-4 to win the division, because neither the Packers, Bears, or Lions have any realistic chance to win out. Even if Minnesota falls apart and goes 3-6 to finish 10-7, Green Bay or Chicago would have to finish 7-1 just to force a tie. Detroit would have to finish 8-1, which...isn't happening.

So yeah, this thing is all but over.

The Vikings actually have a good chance to be the first team to clinch their division this season. It could happen as soon as Thanksgiving, which is wild to think about. Here's how that's possible, though admittedly unlikely:

  • The Vikings win their next two games (at Bills, vs. Cowboys)
  • The Packers lose their next two games (vs. Cowboys, vs. Titans)
  • The Bears lose their next two games (vs. Lions, at Falcons)
  • The Lions beat the Bears and then lose their next two games (at Giants, vs. Bills)

If all that happens, the Vikings would be 9-1, the Packers and Bears would be 3-8, and the Lions would join them at 3-8 after losing the early game against Buffalo on Thanksgiving. The Vikings could then clinch the division by beating the Patriots at U.S. Bank Stadium later that night and getting to 10 wins.

That's probably not going to happen, but it's entirely possible the Vikings clinch the division by Week 13, 14 or 15, without even needing to let it come down to the last few weeks of the season.

All the Vikings are focused on, of course, is winning their next game. That task could become much more doable in Buffalo this weekend if Josh Allen's elbow situation causes him to miss the game. Case Keenum, the Vikings' quarterback the last time they won the division, would start that game if Allen can't go.

Barring an all-time collapse by the Vikings, the division is theirs. That means hosting at least one playoff game. The more interesting races are for the No. 1 seed in the NFC (can they catch the 8-0 Eagles?) and the No. 2 seed (the 6-3 Seahawks and 4-4 49ers are the biggest threats there).

Enjoy the ride, Vikings fans.

Thanks for reading. Make sure to bookmark this site and check back daily for the latest Vikings news and analysis all offseason long. Also, follow me on Twitter and feel free to ask me any questions on there.

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Will Ragatz
WILL RAGATZ

Will Ragatz is a senior writer for Vikings On SI, who also covers the Twins, Timberwolves, Gophers, and other Minnesota teams. He is a credentialed Minnesota Vikings beat reporter, covering the team extensively at practices, games and throughout the NFL draft and free agency period. Ragatz attended Northwestern University, where he studied at the prestigious Medill School of Journalism. During his time as a student, he covered Northwestern Wildcats football and basketball for SB Nation’s Inside NU, eventually serving as co-editor-in-chief in his junior year. In the fall of 2018, Will interned in Sports Illustrated’s newsroom in New York City, where he wrote articles on Major League Baseball, college football, and college basketball for SI.com.

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