Vikings-Buccaneers Predictions: Who Wins in Week 1?

Year two of the Kevin O'Connell era begins on Sunday with a winnable home matchup against Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It should be a raucous atmosphere at U.S. Bank Stadium, with the Vikings unveiling their new throwback uniforms and honoring legendary coach Bud Grant.

As usual, the season opener promises to be fascinating. This will be the full-fledged debut of the Vikings' new Brian Flores-led defense, which has been the talk of the team all offseason. It'll be Minnesota's first game in a long time without former mainstays Adam Thielen, Eric Kendricks, and Dalvin Cook. And it'll mark the Vikings (and/or NFL) debuts for a variety of players, including Jordan Addison, Mekhi Blackmon, Byron Murphy Jr., and Josh Oliver. Marcus Davenport is questionable to play with an ankle injury.

The Vikings are 5.5-point favorites, which is down slightly from earlier in the week. Will they be able to handle business? Let's start with my prediction and then dive into some picks from national analysts.

Will's pick: Vikings 27, Buccaneers 17

2022 record: 13-5 (including playoffs)

This is a Tampa Bay team with plenty of star talent on both sides of the ball, from Tristan Wirfs, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin on offense to Lavonte David, Vita Vea, and Antoine Winfield Jr. (among others) on defense. Unfortunately for Todd Bowles' team, quarterback is far and away the most important position on any roster — and replacing Tom Brady with Mayfield is a major downgrade. The last few years have been brutal for Mayfield, who will be operating behind an iffy offensive line on Sunday. I expect Flores to fluster him into some mistakes. O'Connell's offense, which can beat teams in all kinds of ways, should get off to a nice start to the season as well.

National predictions

NFL.com: 5 of 5 pickers take the Vikings

The reigning NFC North champions begin the season in their comfort zone: at U.S. Bank Stadium, where they are 39-18 in the regular season since the building opened in 2016. Kevin O'Connell's offense, buoyed by a QB playing some of his best football in his mid-30s (Kirk Cousins) and a young WR duo (reigning Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson and first-round pick Jordan Addison), should once again be the star of this year's team. It'll be up to new Vikings DC Brian Flores' unit to ensure games don't come down to the wire every week. The first test is a Bucs offense in transition, though one that has promise if the ever-erratic Baker Mayfield can limit the turnovers. (The key word: if.) — Brooke Cersosimo

Bleacher Report Staff: Vikings 24, Buccaneers 21

Our experts went heavy on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to cover a touchdown line because they've fielded a top-nine defense in points or yards allowed in each of the last three years. Furthermore, Minnesota has question marks on defense after the unit gave up the fifth-most points last year.

Mike Florio, PFT: Vikings 31, Buccaneers 14

Chris Simms, PFT: Vikings 24, Buccaneers 20

Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Vikings 23, Buccaneers 21

The Bucs will be starting Baker Mayfield at quarterback against a new-look Vikings defense led by Brian Flores. That unit is aggressive, which will challenge the Bucs offensive line. The Vikings offense will again be led by the passing game, but Tampa Bay will be better on defense this season. That will keep this one close.

Mark Craig, Minneapolis Star Tribune: Vikings 24, Buccaneers 17

One of the more anticipated Purple coaching debuts ever arrives as Vikings Nation gets to stop hearing about defensive coordinator Brian Flores and his crazed-dog scheme and starts seeing whether it will work with his personnel. Drawing Baker Mayfield and not Tom Brady as the home-opening foe sure helps.

Bill Bender, Sporting News: Vikings 21, Buccaneers 20

The Buccaneers enter a new chapter with Baker Mayfield at quarterback, which adds to the unpredictability of a road opener against the Vikings. Minnesota is being undervalued this offseason despite a 8-2 S/U home record last season. The Bucs show a little more fight than expected, but Minnesota – much like last season – finds a way in a one-score game.

Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Vikings 24, Buccaneers 20

Baker Mayfield looks like he will hold on to the starting QB job by default over Kyle Trask. He has enough help from his offensive line, receivers and running game to keep his team in it vs. a descending Vikings defense. Todd Bowles will keep Kirk Cousins and Kevin O'Connell's pass-happy team in check for a while, but Mayfield will end being the less efficient QB in the end.

Seth Walder, ESPN: Vikings 19, Buccaneers 16

Eric Moody, ESPN: Buccaneers 27, Vikings 20

Storyline to watch:

Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield will tie an NFL record by making a Week 1 start for different teams in three consecutive years. And he will try to overcome a Vikings franchise that has the league's second-best winning percentage (.731) in Week 1 home openers since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. —

Kevin Seifert

Bold prediction:

Tight end T.J. Hockenson will tie a career-high with two touchdown catches against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers' defense surrendered nine touchdowns to tight ends during the regular season last year — the fifth-most in the NFL. With

Justin Jefferson

getting the lion's share of attention from Todd Bowles and the aggressive nature of that defense, it lends itself to a big day for Hockenson. —

Jenna Laine

Stat to know:

Minnesota's Kirk Cousins is 6-9 as a starting quarterback in his career vs. NFC South teams — his worst record against any division.

Matchup X factor:

Buccaneers cornerbacks Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis III. Tampa Bay needs its corners to slow Justin Jefferson and force the Vikings to rely on their secondary receiving options (receivers Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn and Hockenson). Even still, that will be tough. But closely marking the best wide receiver in football is the place to start. —

Walder

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