Panthers' march to 28 points starts with Islanders

No wiggle room to miss opportunities now

Dec 7, 2025; Sunrise, Florida, USA; Florida Panthers center Eetu Luostarinen (27) battles for the puck against New York Islanders defenseman Adam Pelech (3) during the second period at Amerant Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Break down the Panthers' playoff hunt any way you want, in the end it comes down to one simple statement: make up eight points in 23 remaining games to claim a wild card spot.

After splitting the last two games against Toronto and Buffalo, the Panthers sit at 30-26-3 and 63 points, while Boston (33-20-5, 71 points) claims the final wild card spot in the East.

Now, the Panthers go on the road for four games, starting with the New York Islanders (33-21-5, 71 points) on Sunday at 6:30 p.m. The Islanders are riding a three-game win streak, and the Panthers know how important it is that they're the ones who break up the Islanders party.

"At the end of the day, two points are what matters," Florida leading goal scorer Brad Marchand said.

Those words from the veteran couldn't be more true for Florida, whose race against time is getting shorter with Friday's 3-2 loss to Buffalo.

Last season, the Panthers finished third in the Atlantic Division with 98 points. The bottom teams to make the playoffs were Montreal and New Jersey, both with 91 points.

Let's say -- even though there's no guarantee based on other teams' finishes -- that the Panthers needs to reach 91 points this year to claim the final wild card spot. That would mean they'd need 28 more points in their final 23 games. So they'd need approximately 14 wins out of those 23.

Now let's look at the teams they play. The Panthers play more remaining games against teams with better records than they they do, and less games against teams that have a lesser record.

The remaining six teams the Panthers face with equal or less points: New Jersey, Seattle (twice), Calgary, Vancouver, Toronto, and the New York Rangers (twice).

How it all breaks down for Florida

Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Let's play what if.

If the Panthers can win those eight games to collect 16 points, and the 91 points holds true, then they would still need another 12 points, or six wins from the following foes: Islanders (twice), Detroit (three times), Columbus (twice), Edmonton, Minnesota, Ottawa (twice), Boston, Pittsburgh (twice) and Montreal.

If they can take one of three from Detroit, one from the Islanders, one from Pittsburgh, and one from Columbus -- basically avoid a sweep from any of those teams -- that's four wins. Then they'd just need to pick up two games from the other teams (Edmonton is a likely candidate considering recent history). And there's your 91 points, and hopefully, a wild card sport.

It all starts with the first game of a four-game road trip at the Islanders on Sunday. There's a slight chance the Panthers could have forward Tomas Nosek and defenseman Dmitry Kulikov back for the game, though it's more likely they'll return at some point later in the week. On Friday, the Panthers announced that forward Cole Schwindt will be out long-term with a lower-body injury.

Tonight's game: Florida Panthers (30-26-3) at New York Islanders (33-21-2), Sunday at 6:30 p.m.

TV: National: ESPN

Head-to-Head: The two teams have not met yet this season, but meet Sunday and March 28, both in New York. The Florida Panthers have a 60-36-8-11 record against the Islanders all-time.

Starting goalies: FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky (22-17-1), NY: Ilya Sorokin (21-13-2)

Top performers: FLA: In the last five games, Anton Lundell has five points, and Matthew Tkachuk has three goals. NY: In the last five games, Mathew Barzal has eight points, and Matthew Schaefer has four goals.

3 key questions: Can Bobrovsky, who stopped 28 of 29 shots against Toronto Thursday, stay hot? Can the Panthers continue to score on special teams? When will Kulikov, Nosek, and the rest of the recovering players see game action?

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