Top DFS DraftKings Picks for UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov

UFC visits what it previously called "Fight Island" with a loaded, 13-fight card on Saturday morning

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov locks at 9 a.m. EST on Paramount+.

The main event is a last-minute light heavyweight showdown with title ramifications. Magomed Ankalaev was initially scheduled to face former 205-pound title challenger Khalil Rountree. Instead, an injury gives Uzbekistan's Bogdan Guskov a golden chance to climb the rankings.

Every week, DraftKings Daily Fantasy has MMA contests featuring the full schedule of UFC fights. Here are this week's top plays in each pricing tier.

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov Studs to Target

Magomed Tuchalov ($9,700)

No fighter on Saturday has a higher implied chance to win in Round 1 than Magomed Tuchalov at DraftKings Sportsbook. He's at 60.0%.

A lot of that probably has to do with Brendson Ribeiro's three straight first-round losses. It's not really a fluke when the Brazilian has mediocre striking (53%) and takedown (21%) defense.

Tuchalov's salary neighbors are facing significantly more credentialed opponents than Ribeiro, inviting a high-upside place to go if you're willing to take on some unknown with the newcomer.

Magomed Ankalaev ($9,500)

The odds -- literally and figuratively -- are stacked against Bogdan Guskov.

Guskov's power gives him a puncher's chance in the five-round main event -- but that's about it. Magomed Ankalaev, otherwise, is 85.7% implied to win. Just 2 of the underdog's 22 pro fights have gone the distance, as well.

At times, the former light heavyweight champ, Ankalaev, has been frustrating, inactive, and dragged fights out well beyond where they should be. Guskov's striking (44%) and takedown (57%) defense should open doors for a statement when the Uzbekistan fighter was sucking wind pretty hard in Round 3 of his last bout.

Don't discount a submission path for "Big Ank" in this spot, either.

Volkan Oezdemir submits Bogdan Guskov in the first round!#UFCParis

pic.twitter.com/EoxKl7Ao36
— MMA Mania (@mmamania) September 2, 2023

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov DFS Mid Tier Picks

Dustin Jacoby ($8,700)

Excuse me for not just chucking away "The Hanyak" because of his age.

At 38, Dustin Jacoby has seen better days, but he's still been finished just once at distance as a pro MMA fighter. That was against the uber-powerful Dominick Reyes in 2024.

Perhaps Muhammad Said is just the next-best thing, but his terrible regional competition doesn't provide much of a reason to believe that. The best opposing win percentage he's faced to this point, in nine fights, is .619. Mind you this is short of a UFC level of competition.

Jacoby's +1.64 striking success rate (SSR) has been tested against eight different ranked fighters since 2020. Experience could be worth its weight in gold.

Steve Erceg ($8,200)

The co-main event coinflip seems extremely critical to this slate.

Many will opt for first-round bezerker Ramazan Temirov, who has five of his last six fights inside the first five minutes. Of course, the only UFC foe among them was CJ Vergara, who has been cut from the promotion with a 3-5 record.

Erceg hasn't always had the most reliable chin, but his 55% striking defense isn't a true weakness, and he's got a five-inch reach advantage here. All of those first-round finishes mean Erceg, whose fought five full rounds twice in the last three years, has a huge experience edge deeper into this fight.

I trust "Astroboy", who should be the contrarian side in tournaments.

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov Underdog Plays

Saygid Izgakhmaev ($7,300)

We'll see if my theory about Saygid Izgakhmaev's fight comes to fruition.

Abubakar Vagaev is a highly lauded newcomer...sort of like Izgakhmaev was before his debut. In a brutal matchup, the Russian dropped a tight decision to Nicolas Dalby, a veteran who also turned back others on their way to the rankings.

Vagaev has been knocked out three times on the regional scene, though. Plus, the favorite's 79.2% decision rate -- before this step up in competition -- is extremely unappealing in DFS unless he can really pile up takedowns and control time.

I'll take a dart that Izgakhmaev can channel power we've seen before.

AND JUST LIKE THAT!!!! 🔥🔥🔥
Saygid Izagakhmaev finishes the legendary Shinya Aoki in R1. #ONE163 #ONEChampionship #MMA #Dagestan #Russia #Singapore #WeAreONE pic.twitter.com/is9TLQY0QP
— Armaan (@armaanyounis) November 19, 2022

Santiago Ponzinibbio ($6,800)

Typically, the key to UFC DFS success is finding the square no one else wants. Find me someone backing Santiago Ponzinibbio this week.

I get it; Ponzi isn't just on the back nine. He's on the 18th fairway. His chin is shot to the point where any punch that lands has a visible effect. But, maybe -- just maybe -- English grappler Sam Patterson isn't the power puncher we've made him out to be. He's dropped one opponent, who has since been cut from UFC.

This fight is 61.5% implied to start Round 2, according to DK Sportsbook. If that's the case, who does the public believe is winning it? Ponzinibbio lands 2.16 more significant strikes per minute with considerably higher late-fight experience.

Sam Patterson's chin is being given way, way too much credit against someone with seven UFC knockouts.

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