A Super El Niño? What To Expect in the 2026 Southern California Offshore Season.

The 2026 offshore season in Southern California is off to a hot start in more ways than one. Not only are fish counts climbing, but water temperatures are rising too—potentially signaling the return of El Niño conditions. What could that mean for the months ahead? To find out, I jumped aboard the New Lo-An out of Point Loma Sportfishing in San Diego and spoke with Captain Adam Williams.

2026 has brought warmer than usual water temperature and a hot bite to Southern California. Are we due for an epic El Niño? | Ken Flack

It was the first offshore trip of the year for me, but expectations were high as the Hoaloha Fishing Club stepped on board the New Lo-An. For much of April, the San Diego fleet has been posting large counts of bluefin tuna and yellowtail, and as we made the drive south into Mexican waters, Capt. Adam made it very clear that limits would be the standard for this trip. With the season still rounding into form, we quickly set up our gear and prepared for anything.

Captain Adam Williams of the New Lo-An is a veteran of the San Diego Fleet and one of the finest tuna captains around | Adam Williams

Bluefin, Bluefin, and More Bluefin!

It didn't take long to get on the bite as the night bite turned on a little after midnight. A few quality stops during deep vertical jigging produced 35 school-sized bluefin in the 20-40-pound range for the boat before we called it a night at 4 am. For me, I was able to score two quickly on the 350g West Coast Jiggerz HD, a great option for nighttime jigging. While that is typical for April, what happened next was a bit out of the ordinary.

Around 7 am, Capt. Adam started marking a promising school of bluefin on the sonar. We slid out our baits, and then pandemonium hit. Instantly, half the boat was bit, and the game was on. For the next four hours, we were surrounded by tuna crashing the surface and bent rods all around the boat, mostly on fly-lined sardines on 30-40-pound test.

Big schools of biting bluefin have been spotted all throughout April | Adam Williams

Early Surface Tuna Bite

"That was awesome," Capt. Adam told me when the chaos subsided, "Usually we have to wait a few months for the fly-line bite to turn on." On typical early-season trips, the bluefin tend to hang out deeper, needing heavy jigs and sinker rigs. Yet here they were in mid-April, crashing the surface like it was August. What could cause such a shift in behavior? Well, a leading suspicion is the return of the infamous El Niño.

Is El Niño Coming in 2026?

An El Niño is a weather pattern that brings warmer-than-usual ocean temperatures to the Pacific Ocean with a Super El Niño bringing ocean temperatures 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit or more above normal. So are we officially in an El Niño season? "It's looking like it," Capt. Adam said, "the water is about 4 degrees warmer than it was this time last year."

How does an El Niño impact our lives? Well, in the winter, it often brings heavy rain and snow to California and the Southwestern United States, but in the summer, it typically means fish that love warm water push farther north than usual.

How Will El Niño Affect Fishing?

Big yellowtail have been biting all month, including this 30 pounder | Duy Doan

While the bluefin bite is hot right now, it's not certain to sustain through the year. "It's hard to say what will happen," according to Capt. Adam, "bluefin prefer water around 63-68 degrees, but it's already at 67.4 here in April."

Positive Multi-Species Results

But fret not, because the warm water brings other opportunities as well. Yellowfin tuna, a staple for the late summer and fall, have already started showing in the local fish counts. Meanwhile hefty yellowtail have been hitting the decks for weeks now.

"Be ready for a little bit of everything," Capt. Adam noted, "every day has been a surprise so far." Beyond the yellowfin and yellowtail, this could also mean dorado as well as exotics rarely seen in the local waters. "Hopefully we'll catch a wahoo. It's been a dream of mine on this boat and that would really make my year."

Take Advantage of the

Take Advantage of the Hot Bite

Shortly after our trip, the New Lo-An reported the return of 100+ pound bluefin to the counts, so if you are in the Southern California area or plan to be here soon, now is the time to get on the water. The bite is hot, and with El Niño bringing warmer water, it could get even crazier. "We have a lot of openings in May," Capt. Adam said, "It's a great time to get out there."