2026 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland: Picks and Predictions
The Blue Grass Stakes posts Saturday at 6:22 p.m. Eastern with a $1.25 million purse and a spot in the final round of 200-point Kentucky Derby qualifying preps on the line – and the field changed significantly Thursday when Todd Pletcher scratched No. 2 Class President, citing concerns about how the Rebel Stakes winner had been moving during the week. Aragona and Beer now share the same four horses in different order, and both are pointing toward prices rather than the likely favorites.
Aragona's top pick: No. 3 Great White
Great White, trained by John Ennis, won the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway Park last out and makes his first start on dirt Saturday. Aragona stays on him as his top pick through the scratch, arguing the gelding ran better than the margin indicated at Turfway – pressing the early pace, taking over on the far turn, and still holding off Fulleffort in the stretch.
"He's talented," Aragona said. "He figures to be a fair price once again in this Blue Grass." Aragona projects Great White somewhere in the 10-to-1 range even with Class President's support now out of the pools. Beer agreed on the talent. "If he handles dirt I think he can go with these horses," Beer said, adding that he would give Great White a long look if redoing his selections from scratch.
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Beer's top pick: No. 6 Further Ado – with reservations
Further Ado, trained by Brad Cox with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding, is the morning-line favorite returning to the track where he won first time out by 20 lengths and posted a 98 Beyer Speed Figure. Beer lists him on top after the scratch – but not by choice.
Beer's position is direct: with Class President out of the picture, Further Ado inherited the top spot rather than earned it. "If he wasn't in the race, I never would have had Further Ado on top," Beer said. His two efforts since that maiden win – including a hard-fought second to The Puma in the Tampa Bay Derby – have not matched the promise of that 98. Beer said he would now look to bet against Further Ado rather than for him.
The price play: No. 9 Ottinho
Ottinho, trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Flavien Prat, was disappointing in the Withers Stakes last out but owns a quality maiden win that both handicappers have noted. Beer said he would promote Ottinho heavily if redoing his selections, pointing to the room for improvement that comes with more experience. Aragona has him second. Both project him as a workable price in a race the betting public figures to treat as a two-horse affair between Further Ado and No. 4 Reagan's Honor.
The handicappers' verdict
David Aragona's picks
No. 3 Great White
No. 9 Ottinho
No. 6 Further Ado
No. 4 Reagan's Honor
Mike Beer's picks
No. 6 Further Ado
No. 4 Reagan's Honor
No. 9 Ottinho
No. 3 Great White