2026 Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby: Kentucky Derby prep picks, preview, and analysis
Daily Racing Form handicappers David Aragona and Ashley Mailloux analyze a field of nine 3-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles on the main track in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs in Oldsmar, Fla.
Saturday's Tampa Bay Derby is Race 11 of 12-race program with a post time of 5:35 p.m. Eastern and a purse of $400,000, awarding 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner, 25 to second, 15 to third, 10 to fourth, and 5 to fifth. Aragona picks No. 9 Canaletto to win while Mailloux picks No. 5 Powershift – with Aragona noting it's not the toughest field and Mailloux pointing out that so much of the field really does lack race-day experience.
Mailloux's top pick: No. 5 Powershift
Powershift, trained by Todd Pletcher with John Velazquez riding, enters still winless but he put up a 96 Beyer Speed Figure on debut, finishing second behind Emerging Market – a horse pointing to the Louisiana Derby. Aragona notes the two beat the third-place finisher by nearly 14 lengths and that Powershift ran over a second faster than other debut winners that day at Tampa Bay Downs. Both believe he doesn't need to be on the lead despite his tactical speed, with Mailloux preferring to see him sitting third or fourth early.
Aragona's top pick: No. 9 Canaletto
Canaletto, trained by Chad Brown with Flavien Prat riding, won first time out going a mile at Gulfstream Park at 5-2 in what both describe as a visually impressive debut. Aragona was taken with the way the horse finished through the wire, noting that 1 1/16 miles in his second start probably won't be an issue given the pedigree – a $1 million and half-brother to Arkansas Derby winner Sandman. Mailloux compares him favorably to Powershift as a horse that can rate off the pace. Aragona acknowledges it's not his style to back debut winners in graded stakes for a barn like Chad Brown that often gets overbet, but the visual was too good to ignore.
The horse to beat: No. 6 Further Ado
Further Ado, trained by Brad Cox with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding, is the morning-line favorite as winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club. Both respect the 98 Beyer and 20-length margin of his maiden victory, but neither is ready to make him a standout. Aragona notes the Kentucky Jockey Club hasn't produced horses that improved as 3-year-olds and he wanted Further Ado to put away Soldier N Diplomat more easily in midstretch. Mailloux rates him more highly, pointing out he was sitting fourth before making his move in a field of 12. Both will use him but neither on top.
The rest of the field
Hulkamania, trained by Whit Beckman with Jareth Loveberry riding, drew attention with a strong debut at Tampa Bay Downs, shrugging off a challenger in the stretch and kicking clear. Aragona notes his big stride suggests more ground will suit him, though both flag the step up to a Grade 3 prep as ambitious. Mailloux includes him fourth.
Talkin, trained by Danny Gargan with Joel Rosario riding, was second in the Champagne before a disappointing Remsen. Aragona notes the Champagne hasn’t aged as well as expected and wanted to see him run once this year before this spot. Aragona includes him fourth.
The handicappers’ verdict
Ashley Mailloux's picks
No. 5 Powershift
No. 6 Further Ado
No. 9 Canaletto
No. 4 Hulkamania
David Aragona's picks
No. 9 Canaletto
No. 5 Powershift
No. 6 Further Ado
No. 2 Talkin
Mailloux and Aragona share the same top three – Powershift, Further Ado, and Canaletto – but differ on the order. Mailloux goes to Powershift on top while Aragona sides with Canaletto, the debut winner he couldn't look past.
Want to go deeper on the Tampa Bay Derby? View FREE Daily Racing Form Past Performances for today's featured race.