Expert picks for each of Saturday's Breeders' Cup races
Even without Kentucky Derby, Belmont, and Travers winner Sovereignty, Saturday's Breeders' Cup Classic promises to be a heavyweight showdown. The rest of the card is equally as tasty, with nine Breeders' Cup races total. Below are picks for each race:
Race 4 - Filly and Mare Sprint - 3:00 p.m. EST
Top Pick: Tamara
Kopion coming out of this made it more intriguing. Sweet Azteca will likely be favored but I prefer Tamara, who benefits from her stablemate Kopion coming out. Tamara has always been highly touted and when she’s healthy, she can run big races. I also like all three Bob Baffert runners, Splendora, Hope Road, and Richi, over Sweet Azteca, but prefer Hope Road of the three. It’d also be nice to see Vahva win in her swan song.
Race 5 - Turf Sprint - 3:41 p.m. EST
Top Pick: Bear River
Ag Bullet is likely to take a lot of attention, though I’ll take a chance to wire the field with Bear River, who, like Ag Bullet, won last out at Kentucky Downs. He’ll likely be overlooked but his speed is such an asset in these short sprints. Arizona Blaze looks the best of the Europeans but I think there’s some American runners that can run well at big prices. Reef Runner, Shisospicy, and Governor Sam merit looks.
Race 6 - Sprint - 4:21 p.m. EST
Top Pick: American Stage
Arguably the most wide-open race and nobody thrills me. I’m willing to take a shot with American Stage, despite a narrow loss last out in a minor stakes in Japan. That came off a layoff from a solid effort in the Dubai Golden Shaheen. In that race, he contested a sharp pace with no cover going around the big bends at Meydan. Total shot in the dark but I think he’ll like the tighter turns at Del Mar. I think Mullikin runs a big one but like usual, can’t get to the wire in front. Big City Lights is interesting if he can overcome the layoff.
Race 7 - Distaff - 5:01 p.m. EST
Top Pick: Nitrogen
Mark Casse’s confidence in Nitrogen added to my excitement to bet her but the one hole is what Casse didn’t want. Even so, I think she provides value compared to Seismic Beauty, the obvious best horse in the race. With what looks like a hot pace, I think Clicquot can run big. She’s improving and needs to do so again but she’ll get a solid pace to chase. If there was a time for a South American runner to win a race, this field might be it. Sarawak Rim has looked good in the mornings, though it’s hard to be confident in her without a solid knowledge of her races in Argentina.
Race 8 - Turf - 5:41 p.m. EST
Top Pick: Minnie Hauk
Minnie Hauk is my bet of the day, even if she’s favored. I think Aidan O’Brien entering her in this race shows his confidence in her and she’ll get far less weight than her male counterparts. I’ve never been a betting fan of Rebel’s Romance, though I admire his career. Instead, I think El Cordobes can turn the tables on him. Wimbledon Hawkeye is an interesting longshot at the right price. I’m not really a fan of any American runners in here, but I think Hill Road is intriguing going forward.
Race 9 - Classic - 6:25 p.m. EST
Top Pick: Mindframe
I was willing to bet Fierceness again, even though I’ve been burned before, but trainer Todd Pletcher’s pleading to not get the one hole has taken me off Fierceness. His best race wins this but I think his stablemate Mindframe is getting overlooked. The top contenders are hard to separate but I’ll take a shot with Mindframe, who offers the most upside with value. Obviously the scratch of Sovereignty changes things but I still think Sierra Leone comes up a bit short. The jockey switch has me intrigued with Journalism and I think Nevada Beach and Baeza are talented, though all need a step forward.
Race 10 - Mile - 7:05 p.m. EST
Top Pick: Notable Speech
California has a strong contingent for this race but this is the European’s bread and butter and I think this is the best chance for Notable Speech to gets his big win. It appears he likes going left handed and is coming off a win in the Woodbine Mile. Underneath, I’m going to take a shot with Argine. The Japanese mare has a solid turn of foot and should come running. Of those California runners, I like Formidable Man over Johannes. Both are talented and are facing tough customers but Formidable Man is 6 for 6 over the Del Mar turf. If he gets out of traffic, watch out for One Stripe to come with a run.
Race 11 - Dirt Mile - 7:45 p.m. EST
Top Pick: Citizen Bull
Citizen Bull might be the least bet of the Bob Baffert trio but he’s ready to pull off a shocker. Toss his races longer than 1 1/16 miles and he’s yet to run a bad race. His fourth in the Woody Stephens was better than it looks and he loves Del Mar, proven by his last-out win in the Shared Belief. There’s not much speed in this and he could be loose. Nysos is the most talented horse in this race and likely completes the Baffert exacta. Mystik Dan has really started to come around and this distance could suit him perfectly. In these two-turn miles, I prefer horses cutting back with wins going two turns.
Race 12 - Filly and Mare Turf - 8:25 p.m. EST
Top Pick: Diamond Rain
Diamond Rain couldn’t get by She Feels Pretty in the E.P. Taylor but things should change here. Diamond Rain ran the best race that day and that run at Woodbine should have her primed for this. Cinderella’s Dream ran second here last year and since then has knocked heads with some tough customers in Europe. She Feels Pretty has yet to add this race to her resume though her last two efforts didn’t visually thrill me.
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An avid horse racing fan and bettor, Michael Smith has developed a career in horse racing media as an editor and writer. A regular at Saratoga Race Course, Michael mainly covers New York racing but follows various other racing across the country and world.